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The Big Wet of 2013


Wow

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Sounds like GSP are looking for things to really go down here around here as the week progresses. Here is an outlook wrote up this morning.

 

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE WINDS INTO THE MOUNTAINS COULD STILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. WITH STRONGER THAN NORMAL WIND SHEAR
AND A SOME DRYING ALOFT...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

UNUSUALLY MOIST AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...BUT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH FLASH
FLOODING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

 

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Great write up on the short term by mcavoy @ GSP:

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT BETWEEN A STRONG...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A FOUND A
RIVER OF EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR. TUE AND TUE NIGHT THE GFS KEEPS
THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS WHERE IT
GENERATES THE HEAVIEST PCPN AS WELL. IT LIFTS THIS LLVL JET
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA TUE NIGHT
WHILE THE FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NE GA VEERS AROUND TO
THE SSW. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT MUCH LIKE WHAT WE ARE SEEING
TONIGHT...THE FAVORED TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS
ACTIVITY MIGHT BE A LITTLE EAST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL
BE EXPERIENCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WE WILL STILL BE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER JET WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
WHILE I HOPE WE MISS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THIS
IS BY NO MEANS A SURE BET. EVEN IN THE BEST CASE WE WOULD STILL SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FOR THE WED/WED NIGHT PERIOD THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BOTH SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS PUTS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BUSINESS END OF THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND CORE OF THE STRONGEST LLVL WINDS ALONG WITH PW/S
SURGING WELL OVER 2 INCHES ON THE GFS. THOSE LLVL WINDS ARE ONLY ON
THE ORDER OF 20-25 KTS...BUT THAT/S PLENTY TO HELP DEVELOP HEAVY
RAIN IN THIS KIND OF TROPICAL PATTERN. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IN SOME PARTS OF THE FA. I/VE RAISED POPS
TO 70-80 PERCENT AND ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. IN FACT...I RAN
THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT. AT SOME POINT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER TO THE WEST,..BUT THAT PROBABLY WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER
TODAY.

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Got to say...a very interesting next 72 hours or longer for the Southeast US...

 

 

Our first wave of rain has departed the region and is hitting the Mid-Atlantic and up into New York. Item #2 is the mass of precip that's forming in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico...the global models didn't see this one coming. One has to believe it has Eastern Georgia and the Carolina Piedmont as its destination tonight. Along with that enhancement, most of the Southeast (East of the Apps) shall destabilize enough to allow scattered convection to develop.

 

sat_vis_se_loop.gif

 

 

 

That now brings me to item #3...there is IMO a growing concern for flash flooding and flooding for the Southern Appalachian Region down to the Gulf Coast starting Wednesday. As tonight's feature exits, the big 500mb trough should begin to slowly retrograde allowing the Bermuda High to also shift westward.

 

That will result in more of a Southeast wind orientation for areas of North Georgia and the Western Carolinas which will help to enhance precipitation. Infact the 12z NAM shows an interesting LLJ potential for 0z Wednesday (Tuesday Evening/Night) with 35 kt flow at 850 and 925 mb...that to me is an alarm for nocturnal convection along the eastern slopes of the Apps in Western North Carolina...

 

NAM_221_2013070112_F36_WSPD_850_MB.png

 

 

 

Also in play is a bundle of energy at 500mb that is currently situated over the Northwest Caribbean. By 48 hours, those vorts will be surging north from the Gulf of Mexico with its eyes set from the Florida Panhandle northward to the Southern Appalachians. Folks, not often do you see weather of a Caribbean origin affect our part of the country

 

NAM_221_2013070112_F48_RELV_500_MB.png

 

 

 

@54...

 

 

NAM_221_2013070112_F54_RELV_500_MB.png

 

 

@ 60...

 

NAM_221_2013070112_F60_RELV_500_MB.png

 

 

Central and Eastern Carolinas have racked up so far but the worst in general is yet to come...am very concerned about Wednesday right now.

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Got to say...a very interesting next 72 hours or longer for the Southeast US...

 

 

Central and Eastern Carolinas have racked up so far but the worst in general is yet to come...am very concerned about Wednesday right now.

 

Interesting write-up.  The 12Z GFS looks very suspiciously dry on Tuesday and Wednesday right now.  It seems the models are really struggling with QPF this go-around.

 

Meanwhile, the 12Z NAM (FWIW), has some nocturnal convection developing along the escarpment as early as tonight....which of course, the GFS has no signs of.

 

Can't we get the American models to agree (ever?!) at some point?

 

So Marion_NC_Wx - what do you say about the QPF?

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Yea, I am watching upslope potential tonight for the mountains, and then the Foothills and Piedmont areas for tomorrow morning through noon.

Seeing you are in AVL, what are your thoughts for Thurs thru Sat night there? I hope my whole trip isnt a rainy one while there and in the mtns

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Interesting write-up.  The 12Z GFS looks very suspiciously dry on Tuesday and Wednesday right now.  It seems the models are really struggling with QPF this go-around.

 

Meanwhile, the 12Z NAM (FWIW), has some nocturnal convection developing along the escarpment as early as tonight....which of course, the GFS has no signs of.

 

Can't we get the American models to agree (ever?!) at some point?

 

So Marion_NC_Wx - what do you say about the QPF?

 

 

Sorry for the delay...

 

 

The GFS is definitely doing a poor job IMO with QPF. It almost seems like the model does better when we have a well developed tropical system as compared to our current setup.

 

As far as QPF for the Southern Apps...if that LLJ tomorrow evening can activate a complex of storms, I wouldn't be shocked to see Western North Carolina get a general 3+ inch rain by Thursday and the favored areas 6 or more...

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Sorry for the delay...

 

 

The GFS is definitely doing a poor job IMO with QPF. It almost seems like the model does better when we have a well developed tropical system as compared to our current setup.

 

As far as QPF for the Southern Apps...if that LLJ tomorrow evening can activate a complex of storms, I wouldn't be shocked to see Western North Carolina get a general 3+ inch rain by Thursday and the favored areas 6 or more...

 

Yea, Robert is going 6-10", with some areas 10"+ from Tuesday through Friday.  Crazy!

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Seeing you are in AVL, what are your thoughts for Thurs thru Sat night there? I hope my whole trip isnt a rainy one while there and in the mtns

 

The good news is it starts to dry out towards the weekend, but Thursday and Friday should be absolute soakers.  Not necessarily rain all day, but good coverage of showers/storms both days, and when you get underneath one, it should pour buckets.

 

Precip chances lessen by Saturday as the Bermuda high moves a little further west and the brunt of the moisture gets channeled into TN and the Ohio Valley.  That being said, plenty of moisture will hang around for at least an isolated to maybe scattered threat of showers and storms - though the coverage should be quite a bit less than Thursday and Friday.

 

Up until then though, Tuesday and Wednesday could set the stage for big river and stream flooding around here by the time you get up here on Thursday.  Be wary about driving in rain around here.  You never know when a mudslide might come down the mountain.

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The good news is it starts to dry out towards the weekend, but Thursday and Friday should be absolute soakers.  Not necessarily rain all day, but good coverage of showers/storms both days, and when you get underneath one, it should pour buckets.

 

Precip chances lessen by Saturday as the Bermuda high moves a little further west and the brunt of the moisture gets channeled into TN and the Ohio Valley.  That being said, plenty of moisture will hang around for at least an isolated to maybe scattered threat of showers and storms - though the coverage should be quite a bit less than Thursday and Friday.

 

Up until then though, Tuesday and Wednesday could set the stage for big river and stream flooding around here by the time you get up here on Thursday.  Be wary about driving in rain around here.  You never know when a mudslide might come down the mountain.

 

Thanks Hurricane Tracker. I was concerned about Fri being a washout too. Ugh, oh well  cant control the weather. I am always expecting the typical summer pop up storms when I go to WNC. So it looks like Saturday is the only decent day to get out to the mountains and hike a little I guess.

Thanks for the information and will keep an eye on the road conditions and any potential mudslides on our route.

 

Much appreciated

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Thanks Hurricane Tracker. I was concerned about Fri being a washout too. Ugh, oh well  cant control the weather. I am always expecting the typical summer pop up storms when I go to WNC. So it looks like Saturday is the only decent day to get out to the mountains and hike a little I guess.

Thanks for the information and will keep an eye on the road conditions and any potential mudslides on our route.

 

Much appreciated

 

No problem - glad I could help.

 

Yea, I would hold off hiking until Saturday.  But by then, you should find some good waterfalls and check 'em out!

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