The Big Wet of 2013

[dsaur]

^Folks,

 ^{KATL has had a whopping 20.79" of rainfall already this met. summer as of 8/8/13 (2 PM) with none of it from tropical cyclones! This already places the met. summer of 2013 in 4th place for KATL going back to when records started in 1879! The heaviest JJA rainfall on record is the 25.82" of 2005. However, during that summer, there were four tropical cyclones that contributed close to 15" vs. none so far this summer. In 2nd is the 24.44" of 1887. However, storm # 4 in July of 1887 contributed 7.9". In 3rd is the 24.31" of 1994. However, Alberto contributed 7.92". So, as of 8/8, KATL has already seen the most JJA rainfall on record (since 1879) from sources other than tropical cyclones!!}

 

 ^{Also, since KATL is only 5.03" away from the 2005 alltime JJA record, there might be a shot at that if a wet pattern dominates.}

 

 ^{Yep, these are very special times in which we're living!}

Lol, thanks for making me think there isn't anything below I 20 after all, and I live here   I've gotten 10ths lately while Atl. counts their rain in buckets of inches. .4 for the month so far.  And .3 of those came today. You need to send the Moles back home, please.  Tony

[Met1985]

We have the smallest of cells right over us but we are getting hammered right know.

[metalicwx366]

1.16 for the month. 49.82 for the year. We have exceeded our yearly average. I'm pretty sure this is one of the wettest summers on record even with all the misses in July. June made up for that.

Its actually been wet year round and not just this summer. This spring was very wet as well. March 23-24 we saw 4+ inches of rain and April 14 we saw 3-4 inches and then the wake low came through with the winds gusts up to 55mph.

Next week looks wet FWIW.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

August is typically the beginning of the dry season here and this year is no different. Despite dewpoints being in the 70s each day it's been a dry month. 0.48" as of 8-10. Definitely MUCH drier than July was.

[Tacoma]

Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will.  Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up.  Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture.  Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. 

[jburns]

Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will.  Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up.  Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture.  Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. 

I'm sure the lack of winter snow will be offset by the nice mild temperatures.

[Cold Rain]

Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so.

Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up?

[calculus1]

Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will.  Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up.  Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture.  Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so.

 

Wait...what???

 

Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up?

 

Exactly!  You beat me to it.  

 

Fritschy is already getting in early season form.  Is it possible to cliff dive on winter's chances before fall even arrives?!

[FLweather]

Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up?

 

Good question.

Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will.  Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up.  Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture.  Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so. 

 

 

If this pattern continues like we've had all summer holds going into winter the moisture will be there..... that is if the jetstream doesn't become overly suppressed to the south. If that happens then yeah cold and dry will be the rule while FL,GA,AL,SC,MS,LA will be most likely the sweetspot for winter storms.

[LithiaWx]

August is typically the beginning of the dry season here and this year is no different. Despite dewpoints being in the 70s each day it's been a dry month. 0.48" as of 8-10. Definitely MUCH drier than July was.

Two major flooding event in north Georgia over the last 10 days.. Not much different than July so far. Your backyard does not equal everywhere else in your vicinity. Metro atlanta home of over four million people have been subjected to two flood warnings as well this month people in far north Georgia have been losing their homes from floods this month too.

[metalicwx366]

Heard last night that when winter comes all this moisture will dry up or at least they think it will. Outlook for the next 60 to 90 days is wetter than normal then it dries up. Go figure when cold temps show up we will have hardly any moisture. Maybe they are wrong and we will have some decent snow this winter, I sure hope so.

Lol, Most can't even get a 5 day forecast right and they say we are going to dry up by winter?

[jburns]

Lol, Most can't even get a 5 day forecast right and they say we are going to dry up by winter?

 

Apples and oranges.  That's the same argument used by climate change deniers.  There's a big difference between forecasting a general pattern and forecasting the exact weather for a specific day.

[dsaur]

I'm game!  I say the first sticking precip of consequence for the northern central, southern northern Ga. mystery area will fall on Dec 29th of this very year.

  Meanwhile, no rain again today.  The mini drought continues while those spoiled Atlanta folks, hoard all the rain   Some of the rest of us like floods too you know!  T

[metalicwx366]

Apples and oranges. That's the same argument used by climate change deniers. There's a big difference between forecasting a general pattern and forecasting the exact weather for a specific day.

Ok, I know that. Those are still terrible as well. The cold pattern that people said was coming last winter in January never came. 5.years ago, they said we would have an ice free Arctic by 2013 and that hasn't come to fruition yet.

[Tacoma]

Who is "they" and how do they know this far in advance that all the moisture will dry up?

Well they is the NWS, CPC.  I think they are always the folks that put out the long range.  Don't get me wrong for I hope they the NWS/CPC are wrong.  Hey after the last two winters it wouldn't surprise if the moisture dries up about the time the cold temps arrive.  Yes THEY were on the news last night and that is where I heard it and I was as surprised as you guys are.      

[Met1985]

Well they is the NWS, CPC.  I think they are always the folks that put out the long range.  Don't get me wrong for I hope they the NWS/CPC are wrong.  Hey after the last two winters it wouldn't surprise if the moisture dries up about the time the cold temps arrive.  Yes THEY were on the news last night and that is where I heard it and I was as surprised as you guys are.      

Ya I also saw this on there website. Take it with a grain of salt. All I heard about this summer was how much above we were going to be and look at how that turned out. Still way to early to be throwing out winter outlooks just in my opinion. Back to the big wet today. Today marks day 7 we have seen rainfall in a row. Picked up 1.22 inches of rain today. Rained three times today.

[mackerel_sky]

Last week , GSP was already 2 inches above their yearly average rainfall! That is amazing , because we still have four months to go! Even if the big wet has slowed a little imby, we have probably picked up 2 or 3 more inches since then! This is the wettest summer I can ever remember, and the fact we have had all these amazing totals without anything tropical entities , is even more remarkable!!

[metalicwx366]

Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

[Snowless in Carrollton]

0.57" for the month and we are about 1/3 though the month. Unless things start picking up we are on pace for less than 2" for the entire month.

[LithiaWx]

0.57" for the month and we are about 1/3 though the month. Unless things start picking up we are on pace for less than 2" for the entire month.

What a whiny negative nancy.

[Met1985]

The latest GFS run really paints a very wet picture this next week. It looks like a large portion the the SE is really going to pick up on come major rainfall and we could be back in line with major flooding concerns as this latest run for the next week paint a lot of 1 to 3 inch totals from know through the 16th of this month with locally heavier totals. Also for the mountains this does not look good at all. Only one run but the latest GFS run pains upwards of maybe 3-6 inches of rain for the next 6 days which could be devastaing to a lot of crops and homes and could cause more landslides. This will need to be watched closely because I think these totals around a lot of the SE will go up as we work closer to the trough setting up shop over the East.

[Marion_NC_WX]

The latest GFS run really paints a very wet picture this next week. It looks like a large portion the the SE is really going to pick up on come major rainfall and we could be back in line with major flooding concerns as this latest run for the next week paint a lot of 1 to 3 inch totals from know through the 16th of this month with locally heavier totals. Also for the mountains this does not look good at all. Only one run but the latest GFS run pains upwards of maybe 3-6 inches of rain for the next 6 days which could be devastaing to a lot of crops and homes and could cause more landslides. This will need to be watched closely because I think these totals around a lot of the SE will go up as we work closer to the trough setting up shop over the East.

 

 

Totally agree...folks, a very ominous signal in the 0z model suite for the Southern Appalachian Region. Deep eastern trough (might even cut off at some point), upper jet dynamics and a warm weather CAD signal all coming together could provide a widespread heavy rain event middle to late next week.

 

 

0z Euro in total agreement with the GFS, carves out a massive trough Days 5,6,7 that results in a ton of moisture by advected from the Gulf northward. Day 7 has some similarities to the big cutoff from last month, we'll have to see if that keeps showing up in future runs...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even at several days out, the folks at GSP has highlighted the potential in this morning's AFD which to me is a sign that they're coming on board to possibly something significant going down later next week...

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE CONTINUES TO FEATURE A VERY

INTERESTING COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN DURING THE LATE WEEK. IN

FACT...THE 0Z GFS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LLVL SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE

CWA...COMBINED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROF AND STRONG H3 JET

DIVERGENCE. THIS PATTERN COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND PW

BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2 INCHES WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN

THREAT. IN FACT...THE GFS QPF RANGES FROM OVER 5.5 INCHES ACROSS THE

MTNS TO AROUND 2 INCHES EAST WED THROUGH THURS. THE 12Z ECMWF QPF

FAVORS THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC...LEAVING THE MTNS

WILL QPF LESS THAN AN INCH WED AND THURS. CIPS ANALOG FOR HEAVY RAIN

SUPPORTS THE ECMWF QPF. I WILL USE A CONTINUOUS MENTION OF CHC POPS

THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WED. THE

FORECAST WILL ALSO INDICATE LIGHT ENE WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO

CLOUDY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONSERVATIVELY RANGE

AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[Isopycnic]

Lol, Most can't even get a 5 day forecast right and they say we are going to dry up by winter?

what,...

[Isopycnic]

Lol

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

TY?

[metalicwx366]

TY?

You're welcome.

[metalicwx366]

The latest GFS run really paints a very wet picture this next week. It looks like a large portion the the SE is really going to pick up on come major rainfall and we could be back in line with major flooding concerns as this latest run for the next week paint a lot of 1 to 3 inch totals from know through the 16th of this month with locally heavier totals. Also for the mountains this does not look good at all. Only one run but the latest GFS run pains upwards of maybe 3-6 inches of rain for the next 6 days which could be devastaing to a lot of crops and homes and could cause more landslides. This will need to be watched closely because I think these totals around a lot of the SE will go up as we work closer to the trough setting up shop over the East.

Imagine if this happened.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013081100/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

Yes I know it's the CMC, but just one possibility. 06z NAVGEM also shows the same but isn't reliable either.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Imagine if this happened.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2013081100/gem_mslp_pcpn_watl.html

Yes I know it's the CMC, but just one possibility. 06z NAVGEM also shows the same but isn't reliable either.

 

 

And in a very interesting turn of events...the 12z GFS joins the party.

 

 

 

 

 

[DCMetroWinston]

At some point soon, honking might need to be done to prepare for widespread prolonged flooding by late this week into next week.

[DCMetroWinston]

At some point soon, honking might need to be done to prepare for widespread prolonged flooding by late this week into next week.

[LithiaWx]

That 12 z GFS depiction would be a worst case scenario for Georgia.