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Cut-Off Woes Next Few Days


CT Rain

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tomorrow doesnt look bad paul.. Im sure you will get your chance  :twister:

I am just destined never to see anything.  Ever...just never.  It isn't going to happen.  Every God damn time I miss out on something...i would rather just have a freaking storm drop a funnel right on top of me.  

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We had a tor warn up here in ayer, and the cell came right over head.   The rain kept coming on heavier and heavier, to the point where vis was down to several hundred feet and the street was flowing.  But, it was dead calm....  Then the rain started pulsing heavy to moderate, and there was a breeze swaying the tree limbs.  It was coming from the NW, which seeing as we are in a deep layer SSW flow, that does imply a bit of rotation into the boundary layer, albeit weak.  

 

This is classic LCL height in deep southerly flow scenario.

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Was being in the RRQ of the jet a big reason why today produced?

Haven't closely looked at what skewed the numbers, but the 18z NAM flared up a relatively high STP field across the area, while previous 12z and 6z runs had nothing that significant:

post-533-0-72979600-1372715727_thumb.gif

STP fixed layer is based off of SBCABE, SB LCL, SRH and bulk wind shear.

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Haven't closely looked at what skewed the numbers, but the 18z NAM flared up a relatively high STP field across the area, while previous 12z and 6z runs had nothing that significant:

STP fixed layer is based off of SBCABE, SB LCL, SRH and bulk wind shear.

Interesting, maybe the parameter was even a bit more favorable prior to 18z. We definitely had the shear although limited instability..guess it was just enough. Very low LCL too as Tip alluded to.

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I was eating lunch during the warning...and I snuck onto my laptop quick and checked meso...

 

It appeared there was some decent instability...at least decent enough given the shear to warrant the possibility.  

 

Also, with southerly winds more southerly, channeling up the Valley, the storm motion was more SW to NE...so the cells were flowing more perpendicular to the llvl flow which would certainly further boost helicity locally.  

 

This is why setups like this are so hard to produce b/c everything needs to come together at the right time and throughout this entire pattern that hasn't happen..until today.  But like Steve alluded too, keep giving these setups and eventually something is going to give. 

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Found this interesting report on KBOX (apologies if already posted):

 

0134 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WINDSOR LOCKS 41.93N 72.66W
07/01/2013 HARTFORD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

DROVE HIS 44 FOOT BOX TRUCK WITH 34000 LB LOAD ON ROUTE
20 NEAR I-91 THEN TORRENTIAL RAINS BEGAN. STOPPED
TRUCK...THEN STRONG WINDS PARTIALLY LIFTED THE TRUCK 8
INCHES OFF GROUND. SAW TREES SNAPPED. NOTED DEBRIS
SPINNING IN ALL DIRECTIONS. AFTER DEBRIS CLEARED...SAW
FUNNEL CLOUD PASS TO N OF LOCATION. OTHER DETAILS IN
PREVIOUS REPORT. TIME APPROXIMATE.

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