joey2002 Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 They sometimes are not very astute with our climo when it comes to severe wx. Sorry, but it is what it is. That said, I'm not sure conditions could justify a watch. How many confirmed? If Agawam was a tornado then we have two. We had a tornado from a half azz setup in SE MA back in April so it can happen and fairly benign setup. We didn't have an outbreak today so I wouldn't call today a classic outbreak setup, but it was a classic setup for a weak low level spin up. Maybe you can argue for a MCD or a watch after BDL tornado...but it probably could go either way. Not saying they should have issued a watch, but at least a mesoscale discussion, especially with all the tornado warnings being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I won't get into an argument here, but remember there was the TVS in northern NJ first thing this morning too. Downstream parameters in CT were at least somewhat favorable for tornadic development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 You do realize that was a joke that someone doctored right? I am too gullible and can admit it. I thought that was for real lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 They sometimes are not very astute with our climo when it comes to severe wx. Sorry, but it is what it is. That said, I'm not sure conditions could justify a watch. How many confirmed? If Agawam was a tornado then we have two. We had a tornado from a half azz setup in SE MA back in April so it can happen and fairly benign setup. We didn't have an outbreak today so I wouldn't call today a classic outbreak setup, but it was a classic setup for a weak low level spin up. Maybe you can argue for a MCD or a watch after BDL tornado...but it probably could go either way. Agreed...not to downplay it, but there have been numerous weak EF-0 or EF-1 spin ups in New England without any watches or MCD. Its not like it was a F-3 or larger monster. I feel like most of our weak spin ups come without watches haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 radar isn't looking very floody to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 It's just one of those days with crappy low level Mesos with little lightning. I don't see a big reason to bash SPC on one tornado, and I usually have no problem questioning them. I'm referring to convective outlooks not MCD. Yeah no big deal with SPC. Saw potential for some spinners and that's what occurred. Threat was likely too limited for a WW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Yeah no big deal with SPC. Saw potential for some spinners and that's what occurred. Threat was likely too limited for a WW. This is the type of of scenario that is lose-lose in a way. Very easily nothing could have happened and they would get ripped for issuing a watch. Those low level spin ups in a weak lapse rate environment are very hit or miss. Usually you want to see almost off-the-charts low level helicity to warrant a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 radar isn't looking very floody to me. Yeah first real rain fail up this way in a while...of course its raining, but nothing even close to flooding or exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 They sometimes are not very astute with our climo when it comes to severe wx. Sorry, but it is what it is. That said, I'm not sure conditions could justify a watch. How many confirmed? If Agawam was a tornado then we have two. We had a tornado from a half azz setup in SE MA back in April so it can happen and fairly benign setup. We didn't have an outbreak today so I wouldn't call today a classic outbreak setup, but it was a classic setup for a weak low level spin up. Maybe you can argue for a MCD or a watch after BDL tornado...but it probably could go either way. Not arguing against you at all. Working camp it's very hard for me to sneak looks at stuff. I did see the tor warning in NJ and near NYC and then Fairfield...and seeing that told me something was up for today...even if they didn't do anything they were warned for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 This is the type of of scenario that is lose-lose in a way. Very easily nothing could have happened and they would get ripped for issuing a watch. Those low level spin ups in a weak lapse rate environment are very hit or miss. Usually you want to see almost off-the-charts low level helicity to warrant a watch. What's weird to me is how inconsistent the spc is. Sometimes marginal setups result in huge red boxes and other times its nothing... Barely a see text. Seems like some forecasters there have very different philosophies. Not saying which one is right but the differences shift to shift seem to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I don't recall anyone calling for multiple tors here so you cant criticize the spc really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 What's weird to me is how inconsistent the spc is. Sometimes marginal setups result in huge red boxes and other times its nothing... Barely a see text. Seems like some forecasters there have very different philosophies. Not saying which one is right but the differences shift to shift seem to be huge.Good post.. Just compare met characteristics here om the board and it should explain why styles differ... Will and tip are not twins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Confirmed EF-0 in NJ this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Tornado confirmed to northern NJ now, EF-0. Today's spinners were relatively short-lived and on lower end of spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 What's weird to me is how inconsistent the spc is. Sometimes marginal setups result in huge red boxes and other times its nothing... Barely a see text. Seems like some forecasters there have very different philosophies. Not saying which one is right but the differences shift to shift seem to be huge. I know we joke about see text days as doing better than slight risk days, but there is some truth to that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I know we joke about see text days as doing better than slight risk days, but there is some truth to that lol. Absolutely. Look at 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Setups like today just show we have a ton of progress to go when it comes to tornadoes and public forecasting. The big issue here is many mets are afraid to mention the word "tornado" to the public b/c they don't want to freak anyone out...now, I'm not saying that applies to anyone or everyone here b/c there are mets on here who will use the term when it's applicable but when you see warnings issued that early in the day and storms continue to show the potential...that has to be somewhat alarming. You know, we see days where we get tornado watches, severe t'storm watches...and then warnings with no verification or no anything...but then a day like today becomes one of the more active. I think we do have issues, as a met community and we need to figure this out. One, we have to question the ability to nowcast and simply just throw models away when needed, also we need to stop comparing our region to others. Every setup we see, people talk about lapse rates, shear, instability, etc...but I think people use that stuff poorly. When it comes to lapse rates, you don't need 7 C/km+ to get severe...if you're talking widespread outbreak...sure you want it, but when it comes to just isolated severe, lapse rates mean ****. You don't need 40-50+ knots of shear for severe, you don't need 4000+ Cape to get severe. When it comes to SNE, or New England in general, we have our own standards for severe and tornadoes, and while we don't get what they get in the Plains, we see significant weather. For the people that truly care about the safety of people...someone needs to seriously look into this more...there is no reason ,whatsoever, something like today should have happened without anyone in the public not knowing about the potential. It's not right and it's completely uncalled for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Setups like today just show we have a ton of progress to go when it comes to tornadoes and public forecasting. The big issue here is many mets are afraid to mention the word "tornado" to the public b/c they don't want to freak anyone out...now, I'm not saying that applies to anyone or everyone here b/c there are mets on here who will use the term when it's applicable but when you see warnings issued that early in the day and storms continue to show the potential...that has to be somewhat alarming. You know, we see days where we get tornado watches, severe t'storm watches...and then warnings with no verification or no anything...but then a day like today becomes one of the more active. I think we do have issues, as a met community and we need to figure this out. One, we have to question the ability to nowcast and simply just throw models away when needed, also we need to stop comparing our region to others. Every setup we see, people talk about lapse rates, shear, instability, etc...but I think people use that stuff poorly. When it comes to lapse rates, you don't need 7 C/km+ to get severe...if you're talking widespread outbreak...sure you want it, but when it comes to just isolated severe, lapse rates mean ****. You don't need 40-50+ knots of shear for severe, you don't need 4000+ Cape to get severe. When it comes to SNE, or New England in general, we have our own standards for severe and tornadoes, and while we don't get what they get in the Plains, we see significant weather. For the people that truly care about the safety of people...someone needs to seriously look into this more...there is no reason ,whatsoever, something like today should have happened without anyone in the public not knowing about the potential. It's not right and it's completely uncalled for. I think you are overplaying the potential today. There were some low end spinups, but they easily could have not happened. We've had better setups that didn't produce anything including days where upstream had tornadoes. I agree that there could have been some wording perhaps once NNJ got something early on, but I'd hardly call today life threatening. That seems a bit extreme. Low level F0/F1 spinups in a low lapse rate and decent low level shear environment are very difficult to forecast. So many times nothing happens and other times we can get a bunch. Its the nature of severe where we are...I don't think we are at the level yet where we could have looked at 12z today and said "man, we'll def get 3 spinups today". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I think you are overplaying the potential today. There were some low end spinups, but they easily could have not happened. We've had better setups that didn't produce anything including days where upstream had tornadoes. I agree that there could have been some wording perhaps once NNJ got something early on, but I'd hardly call today life threatening. That seems a bit extreme. Low level F0/F1 spinups in a low lapse rate and decent low level shear environment are very difficult to forecast. So many times nothing happens and other times we can get a bunch. Its the nature of severe where we are...I don't think we are at the level yet where we could have looked at 12z today and said "man, we'll def get 3 spinups today". They easily could have not happened sure, but if you really look back at our history of tornadoes as a whole and many of the setups, many of them are questionable, and I really think if someone could heavily research this something could be found that would be huge into forecasting for us when it comes to severe. I know when it comes to high end stuff we want that EML and such but setups like this can be just as bad. My point is, how do we continue to handle situations like this in the future? For many folks, and even us to a degree, we see watches and warnings go up with nothing...and those events have plenty of public warning, but then a day like today where nobody is really saying anything, something happens. Today when I was at work and mentioned there was a tornado warning, granted it was to my NW, my bosses really said anything...all one of them said was, "oh that's what that public alert was for"...are you serious? You're right though, we seem to have better setups not produce and then have setups like this produce...and I think that should tell us something...we are missing or overlooking something and we need to treat our area special from the Plains or any other region. Sure these setups don't produce as much as they fail but in reality these setups have produced more on record than any other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 They easily could have not happened sure, but if you really look back at our history of tornadoes as a whole and many of the setups, many of them are questionable, and I really think if someone could heavily research this something could be found that would be huge into forecasting for us when it comes to severe. I know when it comes to high end stuff we want that EML and such but setups like this can be just as bad. My point is, how do we continue to handle situations like this in the future? For many folks, and even us to a degree, we see watches and warnings go up with nothing...and those events have plenty of public warning, but then a day like today where nobody is really saying anything, something happens. Today when I was at work and mentioned there was a tornado warning, granted it was to my NW, my bosses really said anything...all one of them said was, "oh that's what that public alert was for"...are you serious? You're right though, we seem to have better setups not produce and then have setups like this produce...and I think that should tell us something...we are missing or overlooking something and we need to treat our area special from the Plains or any other region. Sure these setups don't produce as much as they fail but in reality these setups have produced more on record than any other. Well our tornado climo is a lot of these low level spinups like today. But setups almost exactly like today often do not produce a damn thing. They aren't very forecastable with much lead time. I don't think we have the ability to forecast stuff like today yet. There's a reason we have a bunch of knowledgable posters in here and nobody called for SPC to issue a watch last night or early this morning. It was only once we got into the day a bit, that it seemed more favorable. Thankfully, most of these types of tornadoes are rarely deadly. F0/F1 spinners don't kill people for the most part unless you get really unlucky and caught out in the middle of it and then get unlucky again with something falling on you. I mentioned earlier back about a week or two ago that we had a setup like this that produce an F0 in New Braintree, MA northwest of ORH and no warning ever went out for it due to the rotation being so low level and small...they found evidence of it out in a field there a day or two later. I actually think Ekster went to survey that one. The low level helicity wasn't off-the-charts good today like in some of the other low-level spinner setups. It was marginally favorable. If we start banging every setup like today, then pretty soon nobody will ever take tornado watches seriously because so often they are duds...until we can refine the level of attritubtion and model capability, we will have days where they happen but no watches are put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 Well our tornado climo is a lot of these low level spinups like today. But setups almost exactly like today often do not produce a damn thing. They aren't very forecastable with much lead time. I don't think we have the ability to forecast stuff like today yet. There's a reason we have a bunch of knowledgable posters in here and nobody called for SPC to issue a watch last night or early this morning. It was only once we got into the day a bit, that it seemed more favorable. Thankfully, most of these types of tornadoes are rarely deadly. F0/F1 spinners don't kill people for the most part unless you get really unlucky and caught out in the middle of it and then get unlucky again with something falling on you. I mentioned earlier back about a week or two ago that we had a setup like this that produce an F0 in New Braintree, MA northwest of ORH and no warning ever went out for it due to the rotation being so low level and small...they found evidence of it out in a field there a day or two later. I actually think Ekster went to survey that one. The low level helicity wasn't off-the-charts good today like in some of the other low-level spinner setups. It was marginally favorable. If we start banging every setup like today, then pretty soon nobody will ever take tornado watches seriously because so often they are duds...until we can refine the level of attritubtion and model capability, we will have days where they happen but no watches are put out. Yeah these kind of spin ups are also nearly impossible to warn... especially in the CT River Valley when the radar is sampling at 6500ft. The potential was there given the low level shear on the nose of that jet... plus a bit of surface based instability. We had people at work monitoring radar and the NWS was doing the same. Knowing/having the situational awareness is all that forecasters really need. I certainly wouldn't have been banging the drum that major severe was likely today but I definitely thought this morning that tornadoes were possible. At 11 a.m. this morning we updraded or tornado forecast (we use very low, low, elevated, significant, extreme) to elevated and that worked out well. The SPC tends to be all over the map with these things... sometimes this setup will yield a watch and decent severe probabilities and other times we won't get a peep from Norman. It's sort of strange but I think it's just different philosophies among forecasters there. Good SNE mets should have a good idea which patterns deliver and this can be one of them. The other thing too is that these setups (closed low and/or deep trough with southerly LLJ) produce frequently this time of year. By July and August when SSTs warm up enough and you can advect low/mid 70s dews in here and not worry about marine taint these things are always interesting. The 2008 Maine tornado too. It's when I see the SPC go balls to the wall for one of these in April or May in SNE that I groan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Well our tornado climo is a lot of these low level spinups like today. But setups almost exactly like today often do not produce a damn thing. They aren't very forecastable with much lead time. I don't think we have the ability to forecast stuff like today yet. There's a reason we have a bunch of knowledgable posters in here and nobody called for SPC to issue a watch last night or early this morning. It was only once we got into the day a bit, that it seemed more favorable. Thankfully, most of these types of tornadoes are rarely deadly. F0/F1 spinners don't kill people for the most part unless you get really unlucky and caught out in the middle of it and then get unlucky again with something falling on you. I mentioned earlier back about a week or two ago that we had a setup like this that produce an F0 in New Braintree, MA northwest of ORH and no warning ever went out for it due to the rotation being so low level and small...they found evidence of it out in a field there a day or two later. I actually think Ekster went to survey that one. The low level helicity wasn't off-the-charts good today like in some of the other low-level spinner setups. It was marginally favorable. If we start banging every setup like today, then pretty soon nobody will ever take tornado watches seriously because so often they are duds...until we can refine the level of attritubtion and model capability, we will have days where they happen but no watches are put out. Setups this this truly are challenging and you can't really issue watches for every setup we see similar...that I agree with. But when you see a few warnings go up just to our SW and those storms are moving into quite a similar airmass and then you have the Valley which always increases the helicity with straight due southerly flows I think that should elevate the alertness of forecasters. That alone was much different from this past week. I could debate for watch vs. no watch...but too not even have an MCD...what's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Not trying to bash anyone and such with my posts...just trying to say, with much further study of these setups we can perhaps learn a great deal more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 I found the video, it's pretty awesome, but I'm not sure how to post it here. Actually, maybe this link will work: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10200897869267477 At first you'd swear its multi vortex but its just the tobacco nets, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 At first you'd swear its multi vortex but its just the tobacco nets, lol That is a pretty sweet video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Same parameters in place today as yesterday but with a little more sun today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 So where is the boundary focus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Look at that big batch of showers/ storms over the Delmarva. That looks like its ours this afternoon/ evening. Throw in some daytime heating and it might get fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 If we start banging every setup like today, then pretty soon nobody will ever take tornado watches seriously because so often they are duds... Similarly, the tornado polygon BOX issued along the leading edge in N-NE Mass that must have covered like 300+ sq miles risks the cry wolf effect as well. I mentioned the 'tornado advisory' somewhat tongue in cheek yesterday, but Ryan's station's 'elevated risk' seems to be a better way of communicating this to the public than either an SPC issued watch or a BOX issued warning. The tornado warning is intended as an alert to take cover, and in a situation like yesterday where short-lived spinups are possible over a huge area with no real indication of where, I feel in the long run it's almost better to leave it unwarned than the carpet bomb warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 Similarly, the tornado polygon BOX issued along the leading edge in N-NE Mass that must have covered like 300+ sq miles risks the cry wolf effect as well. I mentioned the 'tornado advisory' somewhat tongue in cheek yesterday, but Ryan's station's 'elevated risk' seems to be a better way of communicating this to the public than either an SPC issued watch or a BOX issued warning. The tornado warning is intended as an alert to take cover, and in a situation like yesterday where short-lived spinups are possible over a huge area with no real indication of where, I feel in the long run it's almost better to leave it unwarned than the carpet bomb warnings. Sort of like the 6 county long QLCS tornado warnings they get down south? Lol Question for you... Yesterday I had box and okx 88d up and the couplet showed up much more clearly on box than okx exen though they were sampling the storm at almost the exact same altitude/distance from radar. Any idea why that would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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