CT Rain Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Yeah it looks decent for sure. Lots of days with upslope SE flow I think. Slow moving monsters. Given the usual caveats for a D10 forecast... ensembles and op models do show a pretty sizable trough/shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies which could make at least 6/8-6/9 pretty good in NE/SD/WY. After that it looks like we lock in the SE upslope flow and the ridge doesn't look nearly as impressive on GFS/Euro ensembles which should help prevent a monster cap from ruining all the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Slow moving monsters. Given the usual caveats for a D10 forecast... ensembles and op models do show a pretty sizable trough/shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies which could make at least 6/8-6/9 pretty good in NE/SD/WY. After that it looks like we lock in the SE upslope flow and the ridge doesn't look nearly as impressive on GFS/Euro ensembles which should help prevent a monster cap from ruining all the fun. Well good luck man. Hope you catch a nice wedge. At the very least..you'll see some sick structure. I saw some pics from a guy I know who works on silver lining tours and they had some sick structure pics. Ian also had some great pics too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Well good luck man. Hope you catch a nice wedge. At the very least..you'll see some sick structure. I saw some pics from a guy I know who works on silver lining tours and they had some sick structure pics. Ian also had some great pics too. Yeah I'm fine with seeing anything cool even if it's not a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 We're just really more interested in looking at cloud features and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Yeah I'm fine with seeing anything cool even if it's not a tornado. I see rope funnels every summer. Small, dangling features that are often elevated along the mid-drift of the CB structures, to small for instrumentation/detection. They are hard see, but once you spot a couple you get to finding them faster. They are often partially translucent and they only last for a couple of moments. They are probably not associated with the main updraft, but some kind of mechanics does stretch a rotating parcel enough to produce them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I wonder if we are going to start mixing out these DPs? 65 to 68F is a tad above guidance, and if we do eclipse 90, HIs are going to get up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 On I-91 North passing exit 35 and seeing CU popping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Yeah there is also an instability axis going WNW-ESE over SNE noted by higher K-index. Probably a few TORs in the same spots that got 18" of OES on SE winds.weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I see rope funnels every summer. Small, dangling features that are often elevated along the mid-drift of the CB structures, to small for instrumentation/detection. They are hard see, but once you spot a couple you get to finding them faster. They are often partially translucent and they only last for a couple of moments. They are probably not associated with the main updraft, but some kind of mechanics does stretch a rotating parcel enough to produce them.We're not talking about weenies dangling near your face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Just how good was the HRRR yesterday? Quite good. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 We're not talking about weenies dangling near your face LOL, rope funnels curling to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Just how good was the HRRR yesterday? Quite good. That is all. cref15min_t3sfc_f0700.png It did well, it's just tough to wait that long for the 18z to finally give us the solution. The earlier runs and SPC WRF also did a fairly nice job of indicating an evening deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Just how good was the HRRR yesterday? Quite good. That is all. cref15min_t3sfc_f0700.png You know what model is really fantastic with depicting the area where the best svr will occur? The SPC SREF...that thing is a God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 It did well, it's just tough to wait that long for the 18z to finally give us the solution. The earlier runs and SPC WRF also did a fairly nice job of indicating an evening deal. Yes, I agree that the 18Z comes in almost too late to take action. But it's amazing from a predictability standpoint that scales that small can be forecasted beyond an hour or two (yes I know it was somewhat synoptically driven, but there were a lot of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features it nailed too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 You know what model is really fantastic with depicting the area where the best svr will occur? The SPC SREF...that thing is a God. Did it? Hadn't looked at it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Just how good was the HRRR yesterday? Quite good. That is all. cref15min_t3sfc_f0700.png How does it look today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 CU field increasing....even a few TCU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Yes, I agree that the 18Z comes in almost too late to take action. But it's amazing from a predictability standpoint that scales that small can be forecasted beyond an hour or two (yes I know it was somewhat synoptically driven, but there were a lot of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features it nailed too). Yeah I agree. It really has a nice handle on those mesoscale features, and that's not the first time I've seen that. Overall it works really well for convection identifying the location and even convective mode of any tstms that develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Did it? Hadn't looked at it yesterday. Did like a day out or so. I've come to realize that this model does an excellent job, even if it's highlighting areas you wouldn't think has a great shot, it turns out to get it fairly spot on. For example, it had the area around Albany highlighted in the significant tornado ingredients for quite a few runs. Also, had this area highlighted in the calibrated severe weather parameter. The CIPS warm season analogs also did a great job...I remember looking at them Monday night I think and showed a great cluster of svr around that area into western MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The 0z WRF and the HRRR all have convection in CT after 4 PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Fiyyah today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Fiyyah today What is ur dew point rev, 68'ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Fairly overcast up here near Holyoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 What is ur dew point rev, 68'ish?70. It was 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 70. It was 72 Pic of your Davis console? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Pic of your Davis console? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 seriously, pics or it isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Pic of your Davis console? Thought that questioning another poster's obs was verboten in your book ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I will be at the track tonight, hopefully storms stay away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 We need a pic of Kevin taking a pic of his console. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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