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5/29 Severe Threat


CT Rain

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I'm now located in Ballston Lake, a little north of Clifton Park center in Saratoga County.  As the line approached, sky turned black with maybe a slight greenish tint.  The wind went from eerie calm to very gusty in a short period of time.  I knew the bow was coming back when it pushed east of Utica, but had everything off while we were playing with the kids.  3 of our 4 animals went berserk, so I popped on the computer and saw the tornado warning.  Moved the family into the basement just in case, but no damage that I could see (worst missed just to our south).  This isn't my first tornado warning here in ENY.  I'd be interested in any studies done on severe weather in the Upstate NY area from say Columbia County up to the Glens Falls area.  Here in Saratoga especially, we seem to get hit more frequently by severe weather than anywhere else in the northeast I've lived.   

 

 

 

It looks like that couplet has died down now just a bit, though that was certainly something on the ground at least briefly.... that's actually right near Logan11's place... he's on the Schenectady/Albany County line in that NW corner of Albany county.

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The Lancaster County storm had a TDS for >20 minutes and never had a tornado warning on it. The thing was clear as day. That I'll never understand other than either the radar operator/warning forecaster wasn't trained on how to use dual pol or he/she just never looked. 

 

I'm sure part of it is the novelty of dual-pol. Some people may not be comfortable or confident in what they're seeing, some might be entrenched in their habits during severe weather (especially if things get hectic and they need to load shed).

 

My two cents, you have 5 minutes between volume scans. More than enough time to at least check the dual-pol 0.5 degree scans while waiting. Instead of twiddling your thumbs at 19.5 degrees waiting for the next volume scan to start, that's when you check other products.

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Yeah that's been one thing to watch out for..especially in the plains where the updrafts suck up birds..lol.

 

Actually I've noticed quite a bit with storms out west, that just before tornadogenesis CC drops in the inflow region. Almost as if the storm is taking one big deep breath of inflow. Other WFOs have noticed this as well, but as of yet there isn't a more scientific explanation the hypothesis of increasing inflow.

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Tip, I was thinking the same thing

Back asswards

 

Well there is a reason the text says "in and around the watch area." At some point resources are best used watching the radar and fielding phone calls, rather than pushing our a watch expansion for a county or two.

 

The severe reports basically ended a county east of the watch anyway, and a tree branch falling on wires in Auburn is pretty marginal at that.

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Actually I've noticed quite a bit with storms out west, that just before tornadogenesis CC drops in the inflow region. Almost as if the storm is taking one big deep breath of inflow. Other WFOs have noticed this as well, but as of yet there isn't a more scientific explanation the hypothesis of increasing inflow.

That's interesting. Perhaps as the rotation tightens up you get those pressure perturbations and increased vertical velocity thanks to the rotation.

Nice crawlers above my house now BTW.

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I'm sure part of it is the novelty of dual-pol. Some people may not be comfortable or confident in what they're seeing, some might be entrenched in their habits during severe weather (especially if things get hectic and they need to load shed).

 

My two cents, you have 5 minutes between volume scans. More than enough time to at least check the dual-pol 0.5 degree scans while waiting. Instead of twiddling your thumbs at 19.5 degrees waiting for the next volume scan to start, that's when you check other products.

 

I've gotten in the habit of leaving 0.5 CC up in QLCS or discrete cell cases. The thing jumped out at me as soon as the 0.5 volume scan came in. I totally get how it takes time to be comfortable with it and it's just one more thing to look at in a really hectic situation. What as really impressed me about dual pol here in the NE is how there have now been several cases where TDS have actually preceded warnings... all in QLCS cases. That should be a pretty big red flag about the importance of monitoring 0.5 CC/ZDR every volume scan not just for confirming of tornado in an SVS but even for issuing a warning in a borderline case. 

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Actually I've noticed quite a bit with storms out west, that just before tornadogenesis CC drops in the inflow region. Almost as if the storm is taking one big deep breath of inflow. Other WFOs have noticed this as well, but as of yet there isn't a more scientific explanation the hypothesis of increasing inflow.

 

Yeah I've seen that mentioned in some of the dual pol storm of the month webinars and one of the WDTB AWOC things.  Makes sense though if you have a rain-free area south of the mesocyclone and you ramp up the inflow or suck in some RFD winds you can pick up insects and stuff. 

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I've gotten in the habit of leaving 0.5 CC up in QLCS or discrete cell cases. The thing jumped out at me as soon as the 0.5 volume scan came in. I totally get how it takes time to be comfortable with it and it's just one more thing to look at in a really hectic situation. What as really impressed me about dual pol here in the NE is how there have now been several cases where TDS have actually preceded warnings... all in QLCS cases. That should be a pretty big red flag about the importance of monitoring 0.5 CC/ZDR every volume scan not just for confirming of tornado in an SVS but even for issuing a warning in a borderline case. 

 

One thing about the Northeast versus the Plains, is that the second a tornado touches down it will be lofting some sort of tree debris in the air. We've even seen Plains tornadoes produce TDSs with just dust being lofted. So it's a powerful tool that, as you say, can provide at least zero lead time rather than negative lead time for these events.

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One thing about the Northeast versus the Plains, is that the second a tornado touches down it will be lofting some sort of tree debris in the air. We've even seen Plains tornadoes produce TDSs with just dust being lofted. So it's a powerful tool that, as you say, can provide at least zero lead time rather than negative lead time for these events.

 

I think we're also going to see an uptick in tornado reports thanks to dual pol. While the tornado touch down near Schenectady/Rotterdam probably impacted some neighborhoods the one out in Schoharie County was in the middle of nowhere. That thing probably was down for 10 minutes in the woods. Now the NWS/media knows exactly where to investigate.

 

I've been impressed at how high the debris gets lofted and how quickly it gets lofted around here thanks to so many trees. Out in the plains there have been some cases where there's been no TDS until the thing hits a town... dual pol can sniff out a tornado around here 20 miles from the nearest house out in the woods most likely. 

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what's the Davis read? Nice follow up line

 

Davis is up to 1.00" though we had 0.18" overnight.

 

My cocorahs gauge is mounted about 3" higher than the Davis gauge on the north side of a post so the Davis gauge can miss out.

 

BTW... best thunder of the night right now. 2 crazy booms... poor dog is back under the table hiding.

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I think we're also going to see an uptick in tornado reports thanks to dual pol. While the tornado touch down near Schenectady/Rotterdam probably impacted some neighborhoods the one out in Schoharie County was in the middle of nowhere. That thing probably was down for 10 minutes in the woods. Now the NWS/media knows exactly where to investigate.

 

I've been impressed at how high the debris gets lofted and how quickly it gets lofted around here thanks to so many trees. Out in the plains there have been some cases where there's been no TDS until the thing hits a town... dual pol can sniff out a tornado around here 20 miles from the nearest house out in the woods most likely. 

 

I'm going to try and get GR2analyst over the next few months. Money is tight, but I may be able to get it "work" related. 

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I think we're also going to see an uptick in tornado reports thanks to dual pol. While the tornado touch down near Schenectady/Rotterdam probably impacted some neighborhoods the one out in Schoharie County was in the middle of nowhere. That thing probably was down for 10 minutes in the woods. Now the NWS/media knows exactly where to investigate.

 

I've been impressed at how high the debris gets lofted and how quickly it gets lofted around here thanks to so many trees. Out in the plains there have been some cases where there's been no TDS until the thing hits a town... dual pol can sniff out a tornado around here 20 miles from the nearest house out in the woods most likely. 

 

I have also been impressed with some of the TDSs around here. Like 10 kft TDSs, a la the violent tornadoes (EF3 and 4).

 

It makes sense when you think that CC is just a measure of how well correlated targets are. So whether it's wet leaves and twigs or 2x4s it doesn't really matter, it's still a TDS.

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I have also been impressed with some of the TDSs around here. Like 10 kft TDSs, a la the violent tornadoes (EF3 and 4).

 

It makes sense when you think that CC is just a measure of how well correlated targets are. So whether it's wet leaves and twigs or 2x4s it doesn't really matter, it's still a TDS.

 

Yeah exactly... I imagine it will help you guys a ton knowing where to look for tornado damage up in rural Maine. 

 

The Lancaster County storm had 5 straight volume scans with debris really high up for a pretty unimpressive tornado (EF0/EF1).

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Yeah exactly... I imagine it will help you guys a ton knowing where to look for tornado damage up in rural Maine. 

 

The Lancaster County storm had 5 straight volume scans with debris really high up for a pretty unimpressive tornado (EF0/EF1).

 

 

I like how our radar is situated compared to the hotbed areas up here for severe weather. We get a lot of our little tornadoes in southern Oxford and Franklin Counties. That's pretty much the same distance from the radar here as the stuff was from ENX tonight.

 

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I like how our radar is situated compared to the hotbed areas up here for severe weather. We get a lot of our little tornadoes in southern Oxford and Franklin Counties. That's pretty much the same distance from the radar here as the stuff was from ENX tonight.

 

 

What I'm interested in seeing down the line is false alarm TDS. I saw that it is possible for a TDS to occur without a tornado... though it's very rare. I imagine we'll learn more as all the offices start identifying more and more cases.

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What I'm interested in seeing down the line is false alarm TDS. I saw that it is possible for a TDS to occur without a tornado... though it's very rare. I imagine we'll learn more as all the offices start identifying more and more cases.

 

That one is a head scratcher for me. I think I know the case you're referring to. I have to think that there was a circulation on the ground lofting leaf litter, but just produced no discernible damage for a survey to find.

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