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5/29 Severe Threat


CT Rain

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Yeah it looks decent for sure. Lots of days with upslope SE flow I think. 

 

Slow moving monsters. Given the usual caveats for a D10 forecast... ensembles and op models do show a pretty sizable trough/shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies which could make at least 6/8-6/9 pretty good in NE/SD/WY. After that it looks like we lock in the SE upslope flow and the ridge doesn't look nearly as impressive on GFS/Euro ensembles which should help prevent a monster cap from ruining all the fun. 

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Slow moving monsters. Given the usual caveats for a D10 forecast... ensembles and op models do show a pretty sizable trough/shortwave diving out of the northern Rockies which could make at least 6/8-6/9 pretty good in NE/SD/WY. After that it looks like we lock in the SE upslope flow and the ridge doesn't look nearly as impressive on GFS/Euro ensembles which should help prevent a monster cap from ruining all the fun. 

 

Well good luck man. Hope you catch a nice wedge. At the very least..you'll see some sick structure. I saw some pics from a guy I know who works on silver lining tours and they had some sick structure pics. Ian also had some great pics too.

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Well good luck man. Hope you catch a nice wedge. At the very least..you'll see some sick structure. I saw some pics from a guy I know who works on silver lining tours and they had some sick structure pics. Ian also had some great pics too.

 

Yeah I'm fine with seeing anything cool even if it's not a tornado. 

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Yeah I'm fine with seeing anything cool even if it's not a tornado. 

 

 

I see rope funnels every summer.  Small, dangling features that are often elevated along the mid-drift of the CB structures, to small for instrumentation/detection.  They are hard see, but once you spot a couple you get to finding them faster.   They are often partially translucent and they only last for a couple of moments.  They are probably not associated with the main updraft, but some kind of mechanics does stretch a rotating parcel enough to produce them.   

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I see rope funnels every summer. Small, dangling features that are often elevated along the mid-drift of the CB structures, to small for instrumentation/detection. They are hard see, but once you spot a couple you get to finding them faster. They are often partially translucent and they only last for a couple of moments. They are probably not associated with the main updraft, but some kind of mechanics does stretch a rotating parcel enough to produce them.

We're not talking about weenies dangling near your face
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It did well, it's just tough to wait that long for the 18z to finally give us the solution. The earlier runs and SPC WRF also did a fairly nice job of indicating an evening deal.

 

Yes, I agree that the 18Z comes in almost too late to take action. But it's amazing from a predictability standpoint that scales that small can be forecasted beyond an hour or two (yes I know it was somewhat synoptically driven, but there were a lot of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features it nailed too). 

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Yes, I agree that the 18Z comes in almost too late to take action. But it's amazing from a predictability standpoint that scales that small can be forecasted beyond an hour or two (yes I know it was somewhat synoptically driven, but there were a lot of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features it nailed too). 

 

Yeah I agree. It really has a nice handle on those mesoscale features, and that's not the first time I've seen that. Overall it works really well for convection identifying the location and even convective mode of any tstms that develop.

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Did it?  Hadn't looked at it yesterday. 

 

Did like a day out or so.  I've come to realize that this model does an excellent job, even if it's highlighting areas you wouldn't think has a great shot, it turns out to get it fairly spot on.  

 

For example, it had the area around Albany highlighted in the significant tornado ingredients for quite a few runs.  Also, had this area highlighted in the calibrated severe weather parameter.  

 

The CIPS warm season analogs also did a great job...I remember looking at them Monday night I think and showed a great cluster of svr around that area into western MA

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