CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 AWT..Big day likely tomorrow No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Man...I just cannot get over that TOR video from Bettes..He is the man. I salute him. I would have done the same thing if i was that close What video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 What video? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 That's not him though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Those dudes got hit by a barn Bad choices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 That's not him though. yeah I have not seen a video yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 You can thank that clown Timmer for leading the parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Flooding a big issue there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Not so sure that Bettes got hit by a satellite tornado........video here Don't know how many multi-vortex satellite tornadoes have ever been documented lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 As long as the chasers aren't risking any bystanders' lives then I couldn't care less. If they want to risk their own lives it's their choice, but Darwin is knocking on their doors. I'll keep enjoying the videos from my living room and I'm sure everyone else here will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 shear and lapse rates are lame tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 This still looks pretty solid up in New York State. What is interesting though is once again the GFS is showing much steeper lapse rates than the NAM is. The NAM barely has 6 C/KM mlvl lapse rates, however, the GFS is much more favorable with mlvl lapse rates up around 6.5 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Pretty disappointed in the AFD from Albany...they've had some great AFD's this week but the overnight one had virtually no details about tomorrow and only a few sentences. They even had severe in the grids last night but took that out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 NAM is a bit more impressive with the instability than it's been. Actually would fire some decent storms I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 It's a weird case where the LLJ actually becomes fairly strong (40 knots at 850mb) but winds upstairs in the mid troposphere are weaker (30ish knots at 500mb). So there will be some decent speed shear in low levels but deep layer shear fairly meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 It's a weird case where the LLJ actually becomes fairly strong (40 knots at 850mb) but winds upstairs in the mid troposphere are weaker (30ish knots at 500mb). So there will be some decent speed shear in low levels but deep layer shear fairly meh. Unless you have good CAPE, that's kind of sucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Unless you have good CAPE, that's kind of sucky. Yeah it's not exactly thrilling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Unless you have good CAPE, that's kind of sucky. Storms will probably be fairly widespread... and I don't think things hold off until late like some of the models showed. Height falls all day as the trough approaches with a few embedded shortwaves. WIth that kicking LLJ we should see quite a bit of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 shear looks better vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 shear looks better vs 0z wrt NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 It's a weird case where the LLJ actually becomes fairly strong (40 knots at 850mb) but winds upstairs in the mid troposphere are weaker (30ish knots at 500mb). So there will be some decent speed shear in low levels but deep layer shear fairly meh. You're talking more for SNE than NYS, right? Much better speed shear throughout the column in NY than here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 You're talking more for SNE than NYS, right? Much better speed shear throughout the column in NY than here Will look more at work when I get in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Will look more at work when I get in Alright. I'm really interested in upstate NY (around or just north of the Albany area) but there are still so many questions really; 1) Timing of the cold front/pre-frontal trough 2) Cloud cover/instability 3) mlvl lapse rates (GFS more favorable than the NAM) 4) better helicity values occur between 15z and 18z In the end it's just about timing all the best parameters together which doesn't seem to happen often here. GFS has been fairly consistent though with it's evolution and parameters and the NAM has boosted up instability values, closer to what the GFS has been spitting out but it's still meh with the lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Sounds like you may have to go N of ALB to get any spin ups per teh 1730 OTLK Wiz A WEAK TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY FROM NRN NY ACROSS VT/NH INTO ME COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 I cannot believe that video. There is no reason to be that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Sounds like you may have to go N of ALB to get any spin ups per teh 1730 OTLK Wiz We are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Not so sure that Bettes got hit by a satellite tornado........video here Don't know how many multi-vortex satellite tornadoes have ever been documented lol Based on radar, it looked like the circulation went right over them. Check out 1:10 on the video when Dr. Forbes loops the radar and shows how the debris ball passed directly over their location (the dot). The tornado took a turn to the north instead of continuing moving ESE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Not so sure that Bettes got hit by a satellite tornado........video here Don't know how many multi-vortex satellite tornadoes have ever been documented lol Dr. Forbes just went over a hi res mobile doppler radar image courtesy H. Bluestein of Univ. Oklahoma. It shows that the satellite tornado was on the NW side of the main tornado... while Mike Bettes and crew were hit by the the SE part of the tornado. So it does not appear that Mike Bettes was hit by a satellite tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 18z NAM looking great for eastern NY/VT and into NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Late day/evening show again for most of SNE..NAM.GFS not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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