free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Been watching this time period in the models for at least a week, looks good for widespread storms Sunday PM/night, perhaps severe storms at least for WNE. ml winds should be quite strong as noted below. With plenty of instability and a trigger, should be a fun time. ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALLACUS48 KWNS 290848SPC AC 290848DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0348 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013VALID 011200Z - 061200Z...DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ENEWD FROM THE UPPER MSVALLEY ON D4/SAT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH D5/SUN. RELATIVELY FASTMID LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 50KT IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON D4 SHOULDCONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AHEAD OF THE SLOWING FRONTAL ZONEFROM THE OZARKS NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. GIVEN RICH LOW LEVELMOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...EXPECT BANDS OR CLUSTERS OFSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.WHILE FORCING AND SHEAR ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONEWILL WEAKEN THROUGH D5/SUN...STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND FLOW AREFORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BYTHIS TIME...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHEDACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST GIVEN PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY FLOW AROUNDTHE DEPARTING EAST COAST ANTICYCLONE. DIURNAL HEATING AND TERRAININFLUENCES MAY SPUR STORM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST STRENGTHENINGDEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INTHE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S.DURING THE PERIOD BEYOND D5/SUN. HOWEVER...TIMING AND AMPLITUDEVARIATIONS IN LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THEDEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THIS TROUGH TAKES FORMACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks more for NY state and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks more for NY state and NNE. Well this is the NNE sub-forum, too. I'm fairly close to NNE as are quite a few of us, and Sunday is a nice day to go for a drive NW either way. South of HFD/ORH is not going to do well with any type of s or ssw sfc wind, usually until early July or so. Do you agree? Even with good instability, the marine taint seems to affect storms and it's pretty far inland, even if it's very subtle. I forget who has commented on this before, but that is in the back of my mind. It's hard for me to not get excited when most of the parameters look good. Sunday is a good chase day with no work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 ORH and HFD can still do ok on a SSW wind, but yeah...usually in the early evening the cooler marine air can sometimes make it to those locales if winds are strong enough. That's why it's good to have westerly flow aloft because storms get a much farther east shove before having their legs knocked out from under them. Sunday at first glance just seems like NY state and NNE since the trough is pretty far west, but a lot of time is left to work out the details. Certainly western MA and perhaps SW NH can get in on the action. Personally, I'm a westerly flow snob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 12z gfs has scattered airmass stuff Saturday afternoon in the interior. early Sunday, 12z...50-60kt 7h over w ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The threat for SNE might be more Monday if this front drags its feet like shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 The threat for SNE might be more Monday if this front drags its feet like shown. I don't know, but it does seem like the upper winds being more sw than w would usually hang the front up a bit more, no? Models seem to have the cfp by 12z Tuesday, at least for the interior. so it's probably an overnight deal for SNE, at least for storms. Whether it clears the S/E coast or hangs up is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 monday might be the better day - not sure about severe but opportunity for widespread storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 monday might be the better day - not sure about severe but opportunity for widespread storms. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Agree. Sneaky threat. I was running through the 00z guidance and it hangs just enough instability back that there may be a surprise for eastern areas. It wouldn't be the first time that a place like PWM had to wait until day 2 to get the goods from a decent set up. Checking the SREF parameters (which don't carry into our period yet) it appears to be a fairly broad and primed warm sector. Using the CAPE/shear/convective precip probabilities mostly to make sure the model is generating convection. Friday afternoon: Saturday afternoon: Extrapolate that out for Sunday? Not bad for a soon to be day 4 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Sneaky threat. I was running through the 00z guidance and it hangs just enough instability back that there may be a surprise for eastern areas. It wouldn't be the first time that a place like PWM had to wait until day 2 to get the goods from a decent set up. Checking the SREF parameters (which don't carry into our period yet) it appears to be a fairly broad and primed warm sector. Using the CAPE/shear/convective precip probabilities mostly to make sure the model is generating convection. Friday afternoon: Saturday afternoon: Extrapolate that out for Sunday? Not bad for a soon to be day 4 event. Usually those days like Monday our when we do best here. However if the atmosphere is junky with mid level clouds..probably not much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Looking forward to Sunday...will be going somewhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Just looked at 6z NAM/6z GFS and not bad...perhaps NE PA could be a good spot...NAM has some decent helicity and EHI values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Sunday looking quite interesting across the SPC highlighted risk area on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Dr. Forbes has TORCON of 3 for Sunday across eastern NY/VT/NH Impressive for 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Monday looks like an ok setup for these parts if we can muster up some instability. Decent S/W pushing east over SNE. But, looks junky as far as clouds go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Monday looks like an ok setup for these parts if we can muster up some instability. Decent S/W pushing east over SNE. But, looks junky as far as clouds go. Definitely a junky look. Either a slower FROPA or some breaks to further destabilize things, or it's probably not going to be a big deal. Sunday has a decent look across New York state. Even Saturday might be decent if one goes out towards the eastern Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Definitely a junky look. Either a slower FROPA or some breaks to further destabilize things, or it's probably not going to be a big deal. Sunday has a decent look across New York state. Even Saturday might be decent if one goes out towards the eastern Great Lakes. Yeah I mean more for these parts like ern MA, but Sunday is probably a NY State and NNE kind of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The Significant tornado ingredients parameter on the 15z SPC SREF for NYS on Sunday is incredible for that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The Significant tornado ingredients parameter on the 15z SPC SREF for NYS on Sunday is incredible for that far out. I've used that parameter a lot. 15% isn't really all that incredible. It's still pretty decent though. I think yesterday had a smaller area of 15% over eastern NY. Very strong possibility that I'll be going northwest on Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I've used that parameter a lot. 15% isn't really all that incredible. It's still pretty decent though. I think yesterday had a smaller area of 15% over eastern NY. Very strong possibility that I'll be going northwest on Sunday... It is incredible for us for 3 days out and at this range. Even for Dr. Forbes to have a TORCON of 3 for that area is quite impressive for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 It definitely bears watching. Be willing to go into NY this time, though! I can say from my experience yesterday and other suggestions, central NY is not a bad place to set up. I-90 or I-88 for starters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 It definitely bears watching. Be willing to go into NY this time, though! I can say from my experience yesterday and other suggestions, central NY is not a bad place to set up. I-90 or I-88 for starters... My friend and I talked about that. If it looks good up there, we will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 My friend and I talked about that. If it looks good up there, we will be there. Yeah, the area just west of Albany is often a "hot spot" for severe weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yeah, the area just west of Albany is often a "hot spot" for severe weather... Just hoping that area continues to be highlighted for the next several runs leading up to Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 SPC has some solid probs out for Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Two biggest issues with Sunday are: 1) Lapse rates are going to be rather meh 2) There could be quite a bit of cloud debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Although once again the GFS has steeper mid-level lapse rates forecasted than the NAM...looking at 6z bufkit soundings across NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Something has been off with the NAM and lapse rates lately around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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