CT Rain Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Late day/evening show again for most of SNE..NAM.GFS not bad at all meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 meh Not big severe..but I mean widespread storms even to coast..Sort of like other night..with a few severe chucked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Not big severe..but I mean widespread storms even to coast..Sort of like other night..with a few severe chucked in Yeah... the severe tickled the 3 or 4 northern most towns in Litchfield County. Shear, instability all looks meh. With a decent LLJ we should get some good rainers thoug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Yeah... the severe tickled the 3 or 4 northern most towns in Litchfield County. Shear, instability all looks meh. With a decent LLJ we should get some good rainers thoug. You thinking like after 6:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Really wondering where to go tomorrow...thinking perhaps Glens Falls area...or maybe even further east...like NH/ME border area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 So, again this has no hope for widespread severe anywhere east of ORH/BDL. The timing doesn't coincide well for the east. Guess I can hope for elevated instability here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Wiz, I would literally just set up near Albany. You can head north or south from there pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Not big severe..but I mean widespread storms even to coast..Sort of like other night..with a few severe chucked in Screams meh. Just like the other night. Alot of the the winds struggling to mix down past litchfield and the berks were probably due to an inversion though. I remember NAM bufkit showing it the day before. Least you won't have to deal with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Wiz, I would literally just set up near Albany. You can head north or south from there pretty easily. The one thing I'm concerned with is timing. With virtually no capping, and a pre-frontal trough setting up, action could fire very early and inhibit stronger heating/destabilization. While further east, much better chance for stronger heating/destabilization I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 The one thing I'm concerned with is timing. With virtually no capping, and a pre-frontal trough setting up, action could fire very early and inhibit stronger heating/destabilization. While further east, much better chance for stronger heating/destabilization I think pre frontal trough without any type of cap screams limited severe reports and a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Wiz, I would literally just set up near Albany. You can head north or south from there pretty easily. I agree... Albany looks best right now, and you can always move if things look better further northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 pre frontal trough without any type of cap screams limited severe reports and a lot of rain. Not necessarily. Some of our better severe wx days occur with action associated with the pre-frontal trough rather than the cold front. Depending on orientation and other factors, they can actually enhance severe wx potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Not necessarily. Some of our better severe wx days occur with action associated with the pre-frontal trough rather than the cold front. Depending on orientation and other factors, they can actually enhance severe wx potential. I meant in this situation. Saw people say modest shear, instability, and lapse rates at best. I don't see where a lot of severe could come from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 To clarify I'm talking about SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 I meant in this situation. Saw people say modest shear, instability, and lapse rates at best. I don't see where a lot of severe could come from. To clarify I'm talking about SNE. Agreed on SNE.. I know this is the SNE forum but I'm just much more interested in up north...since I'll have the opportunity to go chasing and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Straight line winds in SNE look like the main threat. Pretty unidirectional hodo at BDL/CEF. Have that inverted v look. So we have : average jet, slightly strong llj, modest instability, unimpressive shear, and unimpressive lapse rates, no cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 I'm in Hanover and can see that cell in nrn ORH county right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Agreed on SNE.. I know this is the SNE forum but I'm just much more interested in up north...since I'll have the opportunity to go chasing and such. I haven't even really looked outside SNE yet. Just looking now. S/w looks much better on 18z nam by the way. more well defined. that should give a boost. I think north and east of ALB is the best place to be, now looking at Bufkit. I have a feeling the further west you are, rain and storms don't coincide with best daytime heating. I'm willing to bet northeastern NY state north of Albany over to VT and maybe into NH is the best place to be. Hodo's do improve as the day goes on tomorrow in ny state/vt/nh. Totally meh in SNE, at least where most people live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 I'm in Hanover and can see that cell in nrn ORH county right now.Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 I haven't even really looked outside SNE yet. Just looking now. S/w looks much better on 18z nam by the way. more well defined. that should give a boost. I think north and east of ALB is the best place to be, now looking at Bufkit. I have a feeling the further west you are, rain and storms don't coincide with best daytime heating. I'm willing to bet northeastern NY state north of Albany over to VT and maybe into NH is the best place to be. Hodo's do improve as the day goes on tomorrow in ny state/vt/nh. Totally meh in SNE, at least where most people live. western MA/western CT can't be ruled out, especially if the pre-frontal trough setsup further east...if that does they western MA/CT are in the game, and probably would happen as early as 3 PM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Congrats It's the only cell you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 western MA/western CT can't be ruled out, especially if the pre-frontal trough setsup further east...if that does they western MA/CT are in the game, and probably would happen as early as 3 PM or so. Probably the best chances inside this bubble. There isn't an east-west interstate between upstate NY and VT. Maybe go to Springfield, nowcast and decide whether or not you want to go up 91 or head NW towards ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 It's the only cell you got. I saw it but it was to my north. Ashburnham, Jaffrey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 mammatus and distant c/g with that cell around 7-15pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Probably the best chances inside this bubble. There isn't an east-west interstate between upstate NY and VT. Maybe go to Springfield, nowcast and decide whether or not you want to go up 91 or head NW towards ALB. My friend does know roads to get into VT from upstate NY if we need to head west. We plan on leaving around 8 AM so we will wake up around 6:30 and look things over. Will be going to bed right after the B's game tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 meh yeah, at worst (meaning best) it'll be a few light storms, garden-variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Wiz, ALY changed their tune big time: "MANY FACTORS FAVORING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PLACE INCLUDING SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON...0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2...H8 JET AXIS MOVING INTO EASTERN NY OF 35-45 KTS WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...H3 JET EXHIBITING A DUAL JET STRUCTURE WITH FA IN FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH IS UP ACRS SRN CANADA...AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STRONG RIGHT TURNING HODOGRAPH. AS IF THESE FACTORS WERE NOT ENOUGH THE PWATS ARE BTWN 1.75 AND CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ACRS BULK OF FA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM INTO LINES WITH THE LINES MOVING EAST AS INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 KTS ALONG THE LINE. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO FOR AHEAD OF THE LINES OR BE EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Damage 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 RAP likely overdoing instability again, but shows SBCAPE up at 3100-3200 in the Albany area. Looks like a good starting point and I'm going to check out the damage from the two tornadoes on Wednesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 RAP likely overdoing instability again, but shows SBCAPE up at 3100-3200 in the Albany area. Looks like a good starting point and I'm going to check out the damage from the two tornadoes on Wednesday as well. Albany area is definitely the way to go... good luck Quincy and Wiz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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