free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 ...PORTIONS NERN CONUS TO DIXIE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP MOSTLY AHEAD OF SFCCOLD FRONT...INVOF NEARLY PARALLEL PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND ANYOTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP. DAMAGING WIND WILL BEMAIN THREAT..WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE.TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY CONDITIONAL GIVEN LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE.FLOW ALOFT WILL BEAR STRONGEST FLOW COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THESEBOUNDARIES...AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH DEEPLAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP SHEAR...THOUGH CINH WILL BE WEAK ENOUGHTHAT EVEN WEAK-MDT CONVERGENCE SHOULD PERMIT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVECOVERAGE. AS SUCH...DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD BEQUASI-LINEAR...THOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY OCCURFROM ERN NY AND MA NEWD WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE RELATIVELYMAXIMIZED.ALTHOUGH APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING...RELATEDDCVA/ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATESOVER PORTIONS NY/NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH MORETHERMODYNAMICALLY IMPORTANT PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARYLAYER DUE TO BOTH THETAE ADVECTION AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING.THOSE...COMBINED WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F...SHOULD YIELDMLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG.LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE EACH SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWWDEXTENT DOWN CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT INTO PORTIONSMS/AL...WHERE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES SHOULD BE MORE DISORGANIZED.NONETHELESS...STG SFC HEATING AND AT LEAST SUBTLE LIFT ALONGFRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD OFFER POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS ANDISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER SERN CONUS CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 ...PORTIONS NERN CONUS TO DIXIE... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP MOSTLY AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...INVOF NEARLY PARALLEL PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AND ANY OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY DEVELOP. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MAIN THREAT..WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY CONDITIONAL GIVEN LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BEAR STRONGEST FLOW COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THESE BOUNDARIES...AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH DEEP LAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP SHEAR...THOUGH CINH WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT EVEN WEAK-MDT CONVERGENCE SHOULD PERMIT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. AS SUCH...DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR...THOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR FROM ERN NY AND MA NEWD WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING...RELATED DCVA/ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER PORTIONS NY/NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY IMPORTANT PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO BOTH THETAE ADVECTION AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING. THOSE...COMBINED WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F...SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE EACH SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT DOWN CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT INTO PORTIONS MS/AL...WHERE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES SHOULD BE MORE DISORGANIZED. NONETHELESS...STG SFC HEATING AND AT LEAST SUBTLE LIFT ALONG FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD OFFER POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER SERN CONUS CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR. Sharp cutoff with the severe probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 The flow just more conducive to storms out west, especially since they will be flying ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Reed Timmer somehow is alive, yet the guy who actually tries to throw some science into the storm chase scene passes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Reed Timmer somehow is alive, yet the guy who actually tries to throw some science into the storm chase scene passes away. Reading about that now, terrible news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Reading about that now, terrible news Matter of time, surprised it hasn't happened yet. That's why people who have experience never want to chase anywhere near OKC on a moderate risk day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Matter of time, surprised it hasn't happened yet. That's why people who have experience never want to chase anywhere near OKC on a moderate risk day. Yeah I'm surprised this hasn't happened yet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 The 3z SPC SREF is really primed for northern NY this afternoon for severe weather. SPC maintains 2% TOR probs, however, both BOX and ALY mention an isolated tornado possible. While the SPC SREF has the tornado threat now north of the border, with increasing LLJ and slight turning of the hodographs, an isolated spin-up is certainly a possibility, especially if the llvl flow is backed a bit in the valley's. I would expect the storm mode to become linear rather quickly though. Should be a fun day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Looks like a good day for storms after 6:00 in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 that's gonna bring some excitement. hopefully the severe storms can sneak into western areas, which I do think will happen. What's with the name change? Chasing snow is much more fun and relaxing, plus you can hit the core and not become Dorothy. Dont' even chase--take a walk outside in it and then sit home by the fire and enjoy. The 3z SPC SREF is really primed for northern NY this afternoon for severe weather. SPC maintains 2% TOR probs, however, both BOX and ALY mention an isolated tornado possible. While the SPC SREF has the tornado threat now north of the border, with increasing LLJ and slight turning of the hodographs, an isolated spin-up is certainly a possibility, especially if the llvl flow is backed a bit in the valley's. I would expect the storm mode to become linear rather quickly though. Should be a fun day! Good luck with your chasing. Glad to be sitting well within SPC "bubble" here at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 ****... the 0z WRF has a strong line moving through western MA/CT by 2 PM. Perhaps the pre-frontal trough is setting up further east??? Now I don't know what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 ****... the 0z WRF has a strong line moving through western MA/CT by 2 PM. Perhaps the pre-frontal trough is setting up further east??? Now I don't know what to do I saw that. I dunno...seems a little aggressive to me, but I could see a line coming into western SNE after 21z perhaps. The best forcing really is north. Look at water vapor. that ULL to the SE is acting to force heights to remain high over SNE until very late day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Yeah Wiz. There won't be any storms into SNE until late late day or evening. That model is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I saw that. I dunno...seems a little aggressive to me, but I could see a line coming into western SNE after 21z perhaps. The best forcing really is north. Look at water vapor. that ULL to the SE is acting to force heights to remain high over SNE until very late day. The HRRR moves line through eastern NY by 19-20Z as well. Best forcing is certainly further north along with better bulk shear so even if we get a line moving into MA/CT I think it should fall apart rather quickly but with the threat for isolated severe. My worry for upstate NY is this stuff comes through too early and we don't get maximized instability. We're heading to Glens Falls around 8:00...sound like a good spot to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 The HRRR moves line through eastern NY by 19-20Z as well. Best forcing is certainly further north along with better bulk shear so even if we get a line moving into MA/CT I think it should fall apart rather quickly but with the threat for isolated severe. My worry for upstate NY is this stuff comes through too early and we don't get maximized instability. We're heading to Glens Falls around 8:00...sound like a good spot to you? GFL is probably a good spot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 GFL is probably a good spot for now. Sweet. If we have to go east into VT we can catch Rt. 4 if we need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Sweet. If we have to go east into VT we can catch Rt. 4 if we need to. I feel meh about today even there, but I suppose a nice line could form. Lapse rates are putrid as you would expect with days of deep SWrly flow. Now that I look at it...I wonder of GFL may be a little too far west. Might as well shoot for it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Storms but not much severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I'm pretty certain I'll be getting rain come late day, so hopefully will be able to get some chores done prior to then. Lawn is growing like there's no tomorrow. Perhaps I can delegate that to my wife so I can split wood. Time's really beginning to tick downard to the cold seasons and I'm way behind on stocking up. 65.7/65 off a low of 64.4. Dew-soaked grass this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I feel meh about today even there, but I suppose a nice line could form. Lapse rates are putrid as you would expect with days of deep SWrly flow. Now that I look at it...I wonder of GFL may be a little too far west. Might as well shoot for it for now. Yeah I'm real worried that may be a bit too far west. Lapse rates certainly aren't the greatest but that should be compensated some given high dews, strong forcing and strong lift. Plus 35-45 kt LLJ should really help things out...especially with strong winds. My worry is stuff starts going to soon and limits instability lessening the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Wondering if we should do further east...like NH or perhaps just into ME? Such an uneasy feeling right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Looking at the radar we may have to do east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Ugh... The news about Tim Samaras is so awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Ugh... The news about Tim Samaras is so awful. Probably just best not even to go within 50 miles from OKC during a MOD risk day. It's just too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Probably just best not even to go within 50 miles from OKC during a MOD risk day. It's just too much. Yeah but they were outside of el Reno... Pretty much the middle of nowhere. I think that storm was a worst case scenario. Every chaser was using the highway as it was a good spot north of the tornado. It cycled, became rain wrapped, and developed north over I40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130531 You can see the sudden change in track here. With a rain wrapped wedge there was probably no way to see that thing coming until it was on top of you. Same thing happened to Bettes I guess. I know veryone slammed the TWC crew for being irresponsible but at the end of the day chasing storms is inherently risky and tornadoes can make sudden/unexpected moves and when difficult fi see can kill you. It seems like this was just a worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Yeah but they were outside of el Reno... Pretty much the middle of nowhere. I think that storm was a worst case scenario. Every chaser was using the highway as it was a good spot north of the tornado. It cycled, became rain wrapped, and developed north over I40. I know, but that whole area is a disaster with chasers going in one direction from the metro area when a cell is warned. Dangerous left moving as it cycled. Just one of those awful things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I know, but that whole area is a disaster with chasers going in one direction from the metro area when a cell is warned. Dangerous left moving as it cycled. Just one of those awful things. Yeah you're definitely right... Tons of chasers just makes the situation worse. Ugh... Just a horrible story. I imagine the TWC crew feels even more sick this morning after hearing this news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Yeah you're definitely right... Tons of chasers just makes the situation worse. Ugh... Just a horrible story. I imagine the TWC crew feels even more sick this morning after hearing this news. And it happened to a guy who is basically the opposite of the Jeff P's and Reed T's of the world. There was an article about him just a few days ago in the NY daily news I think. He was talking about trying to raise the lead times for tornado warnings...actually doing what he does in the name of science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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