LocoAko Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Can someone give me a rundown on tomorrow? There's still a lot of uncertainty in the details of how tomorrow is going to play out and there is plenty of good discussion already in this thread... You can also read the SPC D2 outlook for a general description of tomorrow's scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 18z NAM coming in even colder through H+24... will it ever end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 18z NAM coming in even colder through H+24... will it ever end? just doesn't make sense.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 just doesn't make sense.. Did you get my PM or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 just doesn't make sense.. Unless you're contributing something to the thread, please stop clogging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 18z NAM coming in even colder through H+24... will it ever end? Do you think this is an initialization problem? I don't have time to pull the data at the office today. But it seems there must be something it isn't initializing on to continue to be the outliar. It wasn't handling the front today very well either. I've seen the NAM be "out to lunch" and then wind up being the lone correct model but that was several years ago and seems increasingly unlikely with the improved models in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 18z NAM would suggest a bigger threat in S OK and SE OK. Still developing a lot of warm sector and cold sector precip as well, looks like no CIN from 15z on in either area. It does have a comp. radar signal for a storm in S OK located within an area of 3, 0-3 KM EHI, with a hooking hodo tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Isnt the cold front further south than expected today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Latest Euro is still bullish for tomorrow. It may be ignorant of me but I'm throwing the NAM out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Isnt the cold front further south than expected today? It is generally on schedule with most model guidance, although, with the 18z NAM initialized, there appears to be a perturbation of the warm sector towards the Wichita Falls area that did not show up with say, the 00z run valid at this time. FWIW, like JoMo said, the NAM still appears to suggest a potentially significant threat for areas further south and east (say, by the Ardmore/Pauls Valley area). Hodographs in that area become substantially large and clock-wise curved as early as 18z tomorrow afternoon. I'll also note that they are generally that they (the hodographs) are in that classic Plains configuration with S/SSE winds to 850 mb (even close to southeasterly at the sfc) and then strong veering with height above it (generating that clock-wise kink at around 1 km). Severe climo (just for today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 The 21Z RAP has the warm front up to Interstate 40 by 10 AM (15Z) tomorrow. The NAM's credibility is getting lower now IMO and my concern about a more significant event is increasing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Stratus deck is rapidly lifting northward now http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Stratus deck is rapidly lifting northward now http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif Yeah, the stratus layer is moving out nicely now. The ample low level WAA/southernly flow is taking care of that, leaving behind the very shallow near surface inversion to its south...which is also showing signs of rapidly weakening. The last caveat is deep convection developing overnight and tmrw morning...and I am beginning to believe that will be displaced well to the N of the surface boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Yeah, the stratus layer is moving out nicely now. The ample low level WAA/southernly flow is taking care of that, leaving behind the very shallow near surface inversion to its south...which is also showing signs of rapidly weakening. The last caveat is deep convection developing overnight and tmrw morning...and I am beginning to believe that will be displaced well to the N of the surface boundary. and if we get thru that, game on see everyone in OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 A friend of mine put this page together last year and reposted it today. The similarities are striking. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-19120427-synopsis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Yeah, the stratus layer is moving out nicely now. The ample low level WAA/southernly flow is taking care of that, leaving behind the very shallow near surface inversion to its south...which is also showing signs of rapidly weakening. The last caveat is deep convection developing overnight and tmrw morning...and I am beginning to believe that will be displaced well to the N of the surface boundary. Last night the overnight elevated convection was tied to the 850 MB boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 A friend of mine put this page together last year and reposted it today. The similarities are striking. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-19120427-synopsis That event had 6 F4's in OK...that's pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 So Tony, are you becoming more concerned with tomorrow's potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Yeah, the stratus layer is moving out nicely now. The ample low level WAA/southernly flow is taking care of that, leaving behind the very shallow near surface inversion to its south...which is also showing signs of rapidly weakening. The last caveat is deep convection developing overnight and tmrw morning...and I am beginning to believe that will be displaced well to the N of the surface boundary. Yeah this is what I think people were underestimating when we were seeing cold air dumping South. One thing I have learned watching weather through the years is never underestimate WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 So Tony, are you becoming more concerned with tomorrow's potential? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 We'll see. Ahh....I was kind of hoping for a 2 page discussion from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Ahh....I was kind of hoping for a 2 page discussion from you Maybe after the 00z NAM...we'll see how I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 One FINAL major caveat to consider...numerous WRF wariant models (NAM/RAP/some of the NMM and ARWs) hint at a quasi barrier jet feature/cold air wedge that slides east of the Front Range and cuts off the dryline. I didn't read the SPC disco, but that may be why they cut back the western edge. Seems to be two fold...synoptically driven aloft by the way they eject the upper trof...and aided by elevated DMC reinforcing the cold wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Just took a quick look at the HRRR/RAP and it is right in the middle of the road between the GFS and NAM for the morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 The 9z and 15z SREFs have pretty high STP (significant tornado parameters) in SW Oklahoma tomorrow. It seems to be in an area that is likely to see deep layer shear of 50 knots. That's pretty impressive stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I'm becoming a bit concerned (assuming the NAM isn't completely right), with this flow field, about having something initiating with the help of the Wichita Mountains and going...well you know where it would go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 I'm becoming a bit concerned (assuming the NAM isn't completely right), with this flow field, about having something initiating with the help of the Wichita Mountains and going...well you know where it would go. You are talking about McAlester OK (Wichita Mountains) not Wichita KS right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Mike Smith on Stormtrack - Can anyone offer their thoughts towards this? I'll offer a couple of thoughts:Based on synoptic climatology, the main 500 mb trough is too far west (as forecast by the models) by about 150-200 mi. at 12Z tomorrow to see tornadic supercells along the I-35 corridor tomorrow afternoon. Yes, there is a band of PVA on the 18Z 4km but it is, I think, too weak to trigger much. The westward forecast position of the 500mb trough is why pressures do not fall much during the day tomorrow -- good catch, Jeff. I'm in HOU at the moment on business and I can attest the moisture coming off the Gulf is deep. Given that scenario, we might see an evening tornado event or even overnight if the trough turns negatively tilted as some of the models indicate. If it does go negative, watch the warm front, especially near or just ahead of the dry line intersection, for a supercell(s) with a strong tornado or two. At 8pm CDT, the lowest pressure in the area is at Roswell, NM.That is not much of an argument in favor of the warm front moving very far north. The warm front is currently from FYV to MLC to just south of SPS. The two-hour trend at SPS is for the wind to become slightly more northerly -- again, not much chance of it starting to move north in the next few hours. So, if I had to pick a target at this point it would probably be 70 E/S line from 15 N of CSM to 50 S of SPS. The warm front play in west central or southwest Oklahoma could be very interesting in the evening. Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Chinook: Wichita Mountains - Lawton Ouachita Mountains - McAlester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 17, 2013 Share Posted April 17, 2013 Mike Smith isn't someone I would really trust for data. He's more of a politician for AccuWeather today versus a meteorologist. I've heard his Joplin talk several times and it uses flawed data and poor reasoning. He lost much of his credibility in my eyes. Just my personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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