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klw

NNE Spring 2013 Thread

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Yeah its pretty much an arbitrary date based on Climo. There have been special occasions, such as in 2012, where the date has been changed. It was moved up last year because of the ridiculously warm March that started the growing season so early.

Good to know...I know you guys always have a good reason for everything and do an awesome job forecasting our area. Funny how the date lined up with the cold snap, haha.

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It looks like it could get a little gusty here in the CPV but below advisory criteria for now. With that said I have seen some strange winds here on random occasions. I am guessing that might be terrain driven at times.

Burlington and the CPV is easily the windiest place Ive ever lived. It is just constant movement of air...and the wind is usually sustained pretty good for a place at like only 300ft.

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I don't understand the frost/freeze warning program.  Nothing issued for C/NNE for tonight but definately many below 32F temperatures are going to occur.  In reading the discussions they say "the program has not started".   I understand farmers have not planted yet, etc. etc.  but i was at several big box stores yesterday,  Home Depot, Walmarts etc. adn they all had their tender annuals out and were selling them.  Clearly many home owners jump the gun and plant early.  What would it hurt to issue these kind of warnings a couple of weeks early or later for the home owner who is not a farmer and just starts planting when the stores get in their stock??

My low up on the hill last night was 33.2F.   Was up at Walmart just now and they lost 75% of their annuals and vegetables  many thousands of dollars.  They didn't cover anything. I still fell warnings should have been issued last night, farmers know what's what but many backyard consumers start planting when they see the stuff arrive at the nurserys and box stores.   I think I am safe for the season now, just need rain!

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Already up to 64F at 1pm off a low of 25F at Morrisville-Stowe ASOS. Classic valley bottom swing from one of the coldest spots in the morning, to one of the warmest in the afternoon.

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Not often do I get scattered raindrops out of orange and red pixels.

Yeah...lol. It finally started gushing for about 5minutes here and the temp nosedived with the evap cooling. 51F.

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My low up on the hill last night was 33.2F.   Was up at Walmart just now and they lost 75% of their annuals and vegetables  many thousands of dollars.  They didn't cover anything. I still fell warnings should have been issued last night, farmers know what's what but many backyard consumers start planting when they see the stuff arrive at the nurserys and box stores.   I think I am safe for the season now, just need rain!

Walmart in Tilton was protecting everything Mon night for the freeze that never came due to the cloudiness. Not sure what they did last night, but Tue AM was definitely being highlighted as the coldest morning for a few days so I hope they didn't let their guard down.

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Just had 1 rumble of thunder  5:25pm.   .15" from showers, just about at the end.  Down to 48F.   Oh, the Walmart that lost so much stock was the Plymouth NH one, I should have been more clear.

Yeah I knew you meant Plymouth...was just throwing in my $0.02 from down here.

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My frequent visitor returned last night.

2013-05-16-034538.jpg

Beautiful afternoon with cobalt blue skies after a foggy morning down to 44.6F. It was a classic case of the top of my hill poking above the fog at 800ft+, my backyard having light fog that you can see the blue skies through, and the valley being socked into 1/4SM grey with not even the disk of the sun visible.

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^^^ Looks like a pic that Ginxy might have taken.

72/44 in Portland, but the wind is ripping at 28 skirt-lifting mph gusts. :)

A ginxy special

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^^^ Looks like a pic that Ginxy might have taken.

72/44 in Portland, but the wind is ripping at 28 skirt-lifting mph gusts. :)

A little motion blur, but not too bad for inexpensive IR.

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When I exited the house this morning for observations, I was surprised to encounter light rain, and within an instant I could tell by the drop size, precipitation rate, and overall look of the sky that it was upslope in origin.  Not surprisingly, about a mile or two to the east of the spine, and touch farther to the west of the spine, the precipitation petered out to zero with dry roads.  I checked on BTV’s Froude number page to find the estimated Froude Number at 0.851, just a touch below 1, which seems like a perfect fit for the precipitation pattern I saw.  At the same time there is a dramatic band of clearing along Lake Champlain… classic.  There was sort of a dearth of upslope this past cold season, so this was nice to see.  On radar there was a general area of echoes moving in from the northwest, but you can see it hang up along the Green Mountain spine (county line) where the precipitation was coming down:

 

17MAY13A.gif

 

 

 

 

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When I exited the house this morning for observations, I was surprised to encounter light rain, and within an instant I could tell by the drop size, precipitation rate, and overall look of the sky that it was upslope in origin. Not surprisingly, about a mile or two to the east of the spine, and touch farther to the west of the spine, the precipitation petered out to zero with dry roads.

Interesting that you mention droplet size...that's usually the first thing I notice about upslope rain. Not sure why but it has a very distinct drop size. It's almost like sheet drizzle but can still produce a lot of QPF in the right circumstance even with very small droplets.

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I've been doing some snowfall comparisons on Mount Mansfield between the COOP and my sites/resort snowfall and I've essentially found the COOP data to be a joke. Some storms (particularly wet, heavy snows) get decently represented, while the larger upslope fluff storms are ridiculously under-represented a lot of the time. I am not sure if its the wet snow gets captured better than the fluff in the elevated 8-inch rain gauge or if its less prone to blowing sideways over the mouth of the can, but there's definitely a correlation between denser snowfalls and the snowfall I get vs. the COOP.

However, I also found out (surprisingly) that this past winter was less snowy than 2011-2012! Mansfield may be the only station in New England that reported higher snow in 11-12 than 12-13. My snowboard data shows that this past winter was better than 11-12, as that winter featured the lowest ski area snowfall in at least 20 years. I think most objective stats from spots around New England would also show that this past winter was much snowier than 2011-2012...but the Mansfield COOP data will make it look like the opposite.

Based on the NOWdata from NOAA...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv

Here's the past two season's snowfall from the COOP plus my 3000ft east side measurements in parentheses:

2011-2012...167.6" (241" *includes 30.0" of snowfall after the ski area closed on APR 1)

2012-2013...146.5" (287")

This came to light while discussing this with Tony Crocker who runs a national ski resort snowfall website, as Fred Lavenburg (in charge of WCAX summit engineers) provided Tony with this past winter's snowfall stats. Tony has been observing ski area snowfall across North America for many years and his info is often quoted in ski & snowboard magazines...and he couldn't believe that Mansfield got less snowfall than 2011-2012 (widely considered the worst ski season for snowfall in the past 20+ years). The issue now seems to be is any aspect of the seasonal snowfall accurate from the COOP or is it so unreliable that you cant even compare years to see if one was snowier than another? We always knew it underreported snowfall by an almost laugh-worthy amount, but is it so bad that you cant really even compare a given year with another because maybe one year the can captured 70% of snowfall... but in another year when more snow actually fell, the can only collected 55% of snowfall?

I see the same issue with 2009-2010 being snowier (201.5) than 2010-2011 (180.7") at the Mansfield COOP...when my snowboard data shows the opposite with 10-11 being much snowier (332") than 2009-2010 (246"). In fact, I recorded almost 100 more inches in what was an awesome winter in 2010-2011 than the mid-Atlantic jackpot winter of 09-10. But the COOP data says 09-10 was a better winter...when we all know that was horrific with too much blocking forcing storms south.

How can 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 both be better snow years than 2010-2011 and 2012-2013?

It is startling how much of a crapshoot that snowfall data is each year, and makes me wonder about other mountain sites like MWN....

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Man it's a freakin' wildlife sanctuary there.

Bear, opossum, and fisher last night. Turkeys all day today. Can't believe I've had that bear here 3 straight nights. I even brought the big bird feeder and suet in last night to keep him away. Instead he went for the seed I spread out on the ground for the turkeys.

Beautiful afternoon right now. Mid 60s with a stiff breeze and low dews. Should threaten the 30s tonight if we can radiate, but I think frost is unlikely here.

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However, I also found out (surprisingly) that this past winter was less snowy than 2011-2012! Mansfield may be the only station in New England that reported higher snow in 11-12 than 12-13. My snowboard data shows that this past winter was better than 11-12, as that winter featured the lowest ski area snowfall in at least 20 years. I think most objective stats from spots around New England would also show that this past winter was much snowier than 2011-2012...but the Mansfield COOP data will make it look like the opposite.

 

No problem with anything but the boldface, and not much with that.  However, CAR had only 3.0" more snow this past winter than in 2011-12, and 11-12 had 3.5" more than 10-11.  All three winters ranged 92-98% of their avg.  Reporting from northern Maine has become spotty - apparently Clayton Lake and Allagash have dropped out - but northeast Aroostook had some strange snowfall patterns these past 3 winters compared to everyone else in the region.

 

Edit:  Van Buren recorded 87.7" in 2011-12 and 84.8" in 12-13, much less difference than at Mansfield and a lot more believable.

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I missed it but apparently the aurora were visible overnight last night.

 

Yeah! The AOT cam at Berlin, VT actually caught it:

 

BKhl0uf_CMAAUhl_K.jpg

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Bear, opossum, and fisher last night. Turkeys all day today. Can't believe I've had that bear here 3 straight nights. I even brought the big bird feeder and suet in last night to keep him away. Instead he went for the seed I spread out on the ground for the turkeys.

 

 

This guy was enjoying some cooking oil I left outside, surprised he didn't just pick it up chug it right down :).  I am hoping this isn't the same guy that became a nuisance last year breaking into my garage for the trash, even broke window and climbed through to get it!!

 

Wish I had looked out last night, always seems the nights I stay up late, the next morning all the pics of the auroa!

  

294852_10201364784387981_1051727450_n.jp

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Today I went to North and South Baldface, which I hiked back in early March. It's like a completely different mountain today as back in March I was in snowshoes and was traveling over several feet of snow. There was actually a few patches of snow that I had to walk on today - a bit of a surprise given the elevation of around 3500'. Summit conditions at the north summit at 11:00 am was partly cloudy with a temp of 55F and a wind blowing at 5mph. A very nice May day on the mountain, though the black flies became a nuisance on the descent. 'Tis the season ...

post-254-0-25172200-1368917972_thumb.jpg

post-254-0-84978600-1368917996_thumb.jpg

post-254-0-45099300-1368918037_thumb.jpg

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as always, great pics MJH...trying my best to get back in shape to start hiking...learned a hard lesson last year, as i tried a hike well beyond my current ability and ended up having to find a nice rock to vomit behind...and then i sat down and kinda dozed in and out for a while till i had enough strength to try to get back to my car...missed the top by less than 200ft...oh well...my fault

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What mtn was that diane? And jay hawk beauty of a day for a hike, you ever hike the big one in maine

Katahdin? No, that's a bit too far for me to go to. If I had a couple free days I certainly would though! A co-worker hiked Knife's Edge and showed me pics. Yup, that's badass.

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What mtn was that diane? And jay hawk beauty of a day for a hike, you ever hike the big one in maine

 

 

just Franconia ridge...i'm surprised i had such a problem...but Falling Waters Trail sure has the ability to kick my azz (twice, actually) 

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