Hoosier Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 re: IND, they do a fine job overall. I think it's probably a little too early to mention amounts with this one. Clearly there will need to be some adjustments if their key assumption of more mixed precip does not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I'm not going to be greedy. Northern Indiana can have this one. Unfortunately the Euro is more constipated and doesn't get the Atlantic maritime low far enough out of the way in time for a big hit. Chances are the Euro is right. But by the looks of the models we're not out of the woods till we get way into April. As soon as we get a strong system that pumps a lot of Gulf juice northward someone's going to get a spring ice storm. It's happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 He probably won't show it but Caplan said their microcast gives northern IL 10-16" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 He probably won't show it but Caplan said their microcast gives northern IL 10-16" lol He should show it, simply for the shock value..... I know a few people, who at this point, would lose their minds if they even thought about the possibility of such a large snow, this late in March..... It would be entertaining..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 He probably won't show it but Caplan said their microcast gives northern IL 10-16" lol Lol for now indeed. MicroCast must be loving on the 00z GFS run from last night, which gave NE IL those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 This would makeup for all the missed opportunities to the north this winter Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 That's an understatement. IWX is on the ball it seems, however. I honestly think IND may be one of the worst forecast offices in the OV. I'll leave it at that. Incorrect and shortsighted to even say something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 DTX says it best at this stage of the game: A HIGHER DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD FOCUSED ON A STRONGER WAVE THAT REMAINS PROGGED TOPIVOT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH BASE AND THROUGH THE CENTRALCONUS. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINING A VARYING OPINION ON THEEVENTUAL DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...LEAVING ACORRESPONDINGLY SIZABLE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCE IN POSITIONING THEASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FORCING AND PRECIPITATION SWATH. 12Z ECMWFHOLDING FIRM WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOUTHERLY SOLUTION THATEFFECTIVELY KEEPS SE MICHIGAN DRY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIANCONTINUE TO CARRY A DEEPER WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEYAND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT TO WORKNORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. WITH THE WAVE IN QUESTION STILL DAYS AWAYFROM PROPER SAMPLING...NO COMPELLING REASON YET TO LEAN HEAVILY INONE DIRECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR JUST A TAPERED SOUTH TONORTH CHANCE POP MENTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 May as well post this: European ensemble a bit southeast of the 12z GFS/GGEM but NW/stronger than the Euro...which is a good first guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 May as well post this: ECM ENS 120.gif European ensemble a bit southeast of the 12z GFS/GGEM but NW/stronger than the Euro...which is a good first guess at this point. This makes sense too as the op Euro is by far the strongest with respect to the blocking, and usually with this type of blocking it ends up being too strong due to a known bias. This would help lead credence to a solution that is at the very least North of the op Euro's solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 May as well post this: ECM ENS 120.png European ensemble a bit southeast of the 12z GFS/GGEM but NW/stronger than the Euro...which is a good first guess at this point. Am I seeing things or is that from Dec 17th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Am I seeing things or is that from Dec 17th? For about 30 seconds yes. I uploaded the wrong image initially. This makes sense too as the op Euro is by far the strongest with respect to the blocking, and usually with this type of blocking it ends up being too strong due to a known bias. This would help lead credence to a solution that is at the very least North of the op Euro's solution I think I can agree with that. For those on the northern fringe, certainly a good sign that the Euro ensembles appear to be north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Everyone in every region seems to whine about their NWS when the forecast isn't to their liking, even if the NWS's reasoning behind the forecast is sound. Yeah those guys in the central/western region forum constantly b**ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Caplan showing the worst case scenario - lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Caplan showing the worst case scenario - lol. poor LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Caplan showing the worst case scenario - lol. Honestly at this junction why even show that. What positivity could possibly come out of showing that right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Honestly at this junction why even show that. What positivity could possibly come out of showing that right now? Viewers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Caplan showing the worst case scenario - lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Viewers? this^ it's all about the ratings. Get people to talk about more, then people will tune in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Honestly at this junction why even show that. What positivity could possibly come out of showing that right now? Viewers and for us, laughs! --- actually laughs for everybody really. Just goes to show everyone, that this March is nothing like last Morch. - Even though this is just on one model at this time, it would be impressive if half of that fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Seriously? Why, because they aren't on board with a iffy storm, at the end of winter, with no clear track, and don't put it through your back yard? IND is just as h good as any other office in the region. I've been to their office a few times for ema/skywarn related things and only meet professionals who were proud of their work. Get that crap out of here.Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Your right. I apologize. I did overstep by saying what I said. IND does do a good job but there are others around them that perform a bit better IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Viewers? He may show it but the spoken word needs to be taken into account, did he qualify it by saying this is only one idea, or was that his forecast? I agree that it's more responsible to warn the public about what's possible this far out, than downplaying it, it alerts people with travel plans to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 He may show it but the spoken word needs to be taken into account, did he qualify it by saying this is only one idea, or was that his forecast? I agree that it's more responsible to warn the public about what's possible this far out, than downplaying it, it alerts people with travel plans to pay attention. He was downplaying it and warned the public don't count on anything that. He said accumulating snow likely on Sunday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 He was downplaying it and warned the public don't count on anything that. He said accumulating snow likely on Sunday though. That was the responsible thing to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Yeah those guys in the central/western region forum constantly Well, I never said everyone just on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 18z GFS shifted even more south, pretty much missing our area now. Looks great for STL to LAF though. Could be the redemption storm for LAF after GHD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 18z GFS shifted even more south, pretty much missing our area now. Looks great for STL to LAF though. Could be the redemption storm for LAF after GHD.. Doesn't look any further south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Doesn't look any further south to me. Swath of snow is def further south up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 18z GFS shifted even more south, pretty much missing our area now. Looks great for STL to LAF though. Could be the redemption storm for LAF after GHD.. Euro remains a whiff to the south, so I'm definitely not counting on much at this point. Of course, at this range with the last storm (Sun-Mon), it was laying down 6"+ for LAF...and that obviously didn't work out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro remains a whiff to the south, so I'm definitely not counting on much at this point. Of course, at this range with the last storm (Sun-Mon), it was laying down 6"+ for LAF...and that obviously didn't work out too well. Dude! We're getting hammered. It. Is. A. Lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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