MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Dang, the next storm is already mentioned in this evenings HWO. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-210245-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPIVALLEY SUNDAY...AND SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OR SNOWTOWARD THE REGION. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILLUNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE RECENT STORMINDICATES THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE SUNDAYNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Dang, the next storm is already mentioned in this evenings HWO. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013PAZ006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-210245-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-1032 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPIVALLEY SUNDAY...AND SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OR SNOWTOWARD THE REGION. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILLUNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE RECENT STORMINDICATES THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATE SUNDAYNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. They are getting a jump start on this one - lol what your gut feeling on this potential storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 20, 2013 Author Share Posted March 20, 2013 Happy birthday to me? (I turn 21 Monday lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Happy birthday to me? (I turn 21 Monday lol) Well your storm obs ought to be interesting if we have one haha. They are getting a jump start on this one - lol what your gut feeling on this potential storm? I def think we will have a sizeable late winter/early spring storm traverse the country with the track and ultimate PA impacts to be determined. With a very negative NAO I kind of disagree with how north the GFS has been creeping with this system. The 0z takes the low all the way to the lower lakes with some kind of an attempted secondary... kind of similar to our last storm. Of course the 12z Euro was on the other end of the spectrum this afternoon being south of PA. Don't have much other 0z things yet, darn daylight savings. Plenty of time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Sounds like a monsoon with all the melting snow/ice too downtown. I ended up with right around 3" yesterday for my best guess. What'd you write for your total? 2.5" It could have been more but i didn't get out to measure right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 0z euro was Ots. Ggem was ok from what I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Does anyone know if those annoying radar glitches to the SW of State College are permanent or fixable? Or fixable, but likely permanent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Does anyone know if those annoying radar glitches to the SW of State College are permanent or fixable? Or fixable, but likely permanent? I see the reason every day when I go home over Skytop - those are from windmill complexes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 0z euro was Ots. Ggem was ok from what I hear. Actually, Euro was a lot further north but it seemed to lose the low on a weird transfer. You get .8, I get 1.8. 06 GFS was pretty darn nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Happy birthday to me? (I turn 21 Monday lol) Great! You can do drunken snow angels and it will be legal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Are those Euro or Gfs totals? Also is that qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 I see the reason every day when I go home over Skytop - those are from windmill complexes. Thanks, Jamie. Had no idea they were even there. Nothing a little C4 couldn't fix. Actually, if I go to a Tilt 2 they disappear. But KCCX Tilt 1 is at .5 kft and I'm at .45 so that's about perfect for my location. At least with SuperRes Reflectivity they're a bit less annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Are those Euro or Gfs totals? Also is that qpf? Yeah, Euro. The storm is further north but it does this skip thing right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Thanks, Jamie. Had no idea they were even there. Nothing a little C4 couldn't fix. Actually, if I go to a Tilt 2 they disappear. But KCCX Tilt 1 is at .5 kft and I'm at .45 so that's about perfect for my location. At least with SuperRes Reflectivity they're a bit less annoying. Yeah, I wonder if they will ever try to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 BTW...since the snow on Saturday, we've had 96 hours of snowcover here. That's pretty impressive for this late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Does anyone know if those annoying radar glitches to the SW of State College are permanent or fixable? Or fixable, but likely permanent? I see the reason every day when I go home over Skytop - those are from windmill complexes. Here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/windfarm.htm http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/35119/InTech-Doppler_weather_radars_and_wind_turbines.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/windfarm.htm http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/35119/InTech-Doppler_weather_radars_and_wind_turbines.pdf Thanks! That was an interesting read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Im guessing we need to root big time for primary low in this situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/windfarm.htm http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/35119/InTech-Doppler_weather_radars_and_wind_turbines.pdf Very interesting!!! I wonder how far we are from space based wx radars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/windfarm.htm http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs/35119/InTech-Doppler_weather_radars_and_wind_turbines.pdf Yes, thanks for those links. It's unfortunate. After reading both, I'm inclined to go for the C4 solution as the only way to get rid of this. Haha... just kidding, NSA. Honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Yeah, Euro. The storm is further north but it does this skip thing right over us. ? You must mean an estimated snowfall amount for the 00z EURO. There was not much precip with that run. Most of it was in the SW corner of the state due to the primary low, while the rest of the state only has 0.1-0.2" of precip while the energy transfers to the coast and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Yea jmister I had been confused as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z GFS is pretty... temps/thickness/heights for next Monday all look even better right now with this run than they were for Monday's event... about a half inch QPF for MDT, close to .75" for UNV, and a little less than UNV for AOO/IPT... currently a longer duration event that we just have not seen this winter... if it is going to end up another quick event hopefully it can pick up some more moisture... the following week a pretty strong low pressure system heads for the northeast Monday/Tuesday... better not mess up opening day by moving in Monday afternoon with Pirates, Mets, Yankees, Nationals, and Reds all at home!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 uh oh.... http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/another_winter_storm_system_ex.html#incart_m-rpt-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 uh oh.... http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/another_winter_storm_system_ex.html#incart_m-rpt-1 The trend this winter for the media to be the first one out of the gate and blast headlines all over the place when a winter storm might come in 5+ days is pretty unsettling. Whatever they have to do to sell papers and get ratings. 3 days before the 2/8 storm, our NBC station in NYC showed a RPM model run that had 18" of snow in Cherry Hill and 30" in Central Park. People freaked out and formed long gas lines again for what turned out to be pretty manageable for most of us. And Cherry Hill ended up with maybe 18 flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 ? You must mean an estimated snowfall amount for the 00z EURO. There was not much precip with that run. Most of it was in the SW corner of the state due to the primary low, while the rest of the state only has 0.1-0.2" of precip while the energy transfers to the coast and out to sea. I also have to say ? to this also....the 12Z was well south of PA....the 0Z was north with the low, even if it transferred. Yea jmister I had been confused as well... North, as in not going out to sea well south of PA...The low is a crappy redeveloper on the 0Z Euro that moves just to our south, the 12Z yesterday went out to sea over about NC or so. You know...North Carolina...which despite the North in the name is south of Pennsylvania. Understand? That's today's geography lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 uh oh.... http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/03/another_winter_storm_system_ex.html#incart_m-rpt-1 The trend this winter for the media to be the first one out of the gate and blast headlines all over the place when a winter storm might come in 5+ days is pretty unsettling. Whatever they have to do to sell papers and get ratings. 3 days before the 2/8 storm, our NBC station in NYC showed a RPM model run that had 18" of snow in Cherry Hill and 30" in Central Park. People freaked out and formed long gas lines again for what turned out to be pretty manageable for most of us. And Cherry Hill ended up with maybe 18 flurries. Note the reactions in the comments...you say winter storm and the general public thinks a monster storm. Trust me, the general public has the IQ of a brain-damaged amoeba when it comes to weather, and you really can't put ideas in their head like this. A better headline would be "Spring on hold as winter-like pattern continues" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 12z GFS is pretty... temps/thickness/heights for next Monday all look even better right now with this run than they were for Monday's event... about a half inch QPF for MDT, close to .75" for UNV, and a little less than UNV for AOO/IPT... currently a longer duration event that we just have not seen this winter... if it is going to end up another quick event hopefully it can pick up some more moisture... the following week a pretty strong low pressure system heads for the northeast Monday/Tuesday... better not mess up opening day by moving in Monday afternoon with Pirates, Mets, Yankees, Nationals, and Reds all at home!! lol As wmsptwx has mentioned before, we haven't seen a storm last this long....GFS for UNV: SUN 18Z 24-MAR -2.5 -5.8 1003 92 99 0.20 542 539 MON 00Z 25-MAR -2.3 -4.3 1000 97 98 0.30 535 536 MON 06Z 25-MAR -2.2 -4.0 998 99 98 0.22 529 531 MON 12Z 25-MAR -1.4 -6.3 998 98 98 0.13 526 528 MON 18Z 25-MAR 0.7 -6.4 1001 99 97 0.10 528 527 TUE 00Z 26-MAR -0.4 -5.5 1007 99 94 0.06 533 527 So, sort of skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 As wmsptwx has mentioned before, we haven't seen a storm last this long....GFS for UNV: SUN 18Z 24-MAR -2.5 -5.8 1003 92 99 0.20 542 539 MON 00Z 25-MAR -2.3 -4.3 1000 97 98 0.30 535 536 MON 06Z 25-MAR -2.2 -4.0 998 99 98 0.22 529 531 MON 12Z 25-MAR -1.4 -6.3 998 98 98 0.13 526 528 MON 18Z 25-MAR 0.7 -6.4 1001 99 97 0.10 528 527 TUE 00Z 26-MAR -0.4 -5.5 1007 99 94 0.06 533 527 So, sort of skeptical. Some of these types of storms that drive overrunning into an area of confluence can be long-lasting, take PDII in 2003 for example. That one lasted 24 hours or more. I'm fairly confident it makes it far enough north to affect up to I-80 at least. That's a strong piece of energy driving this, and it'll try to run as far north as it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 Euro is a bit better than 0Z I suppose...I don't have the maps so I am not sure if it did again what jmister talked about above....but here's the UNV/IPT/MDT trinity: UNV MON 06Z 25-MAR -1.7 -6.3 1007 84 99 0.02 540 534 MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.2 -7.9 1008 94 98 0.21 536 529 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.5 -6.6 1008 61 96 0.06 538 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 0.4 -5.5 1011 79 93 0.02 539 530 MDT MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.1 -6.1 1007 73 99 0.02 542 536 MON 12Z 25-MAR -0.4 -7.4 1007 92 99 0.19 536 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 4.3 -7.2 1007 57 94 0.06 537 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.0 -5.7 1010 76 96 0.01 539 531 IPT MON 12Z 25-MAR -2.5 -7.8 1010 92 97 0.10 536 529 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.8 -6.1 1008 60 92 0.06 537 531 TUE 00Z 26-MAR -1.1 -5.2 1010 82 80 0.01 538 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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