mahantango#1 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can't speak for everyone, but a lot of us are done with snow...especially Advisory messes. And March Madness ofcourse.lets hope it is the LAST!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can't speak for everyone, but a lot of us are done with snow...especially Advisory messes. And March Madness ofcourse. I am so looking for Spring weather too however it is going to be cold the next 2 weeks. I would rather have a storm in there then just cloudy, windy and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 haha how about it dude, I love snow as much as anyone...but cannot say I mind the models skirting this one south of IPT. At least tomorrow looks okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 from PBZ .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... ...POTENTIAL MAJOR LATE SEASON WINTER STORM MOVING TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY... MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER MUCH MORE NICELY IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLY BEFORE EMERGING TOWARD SOUTHERN OHIO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SYSTEM ARE SO MINOR THAT THE VARIANCE IN MSLP IS LESS THAN 3 HPA...AND THE LOCATION VARIES ON BY A FEW COUNTIES AT MOST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY POIGNANT CONSIDERING THAT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE ALMOST ENTIRELY SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN...WITH INSTABILITY UNLIKELY TO PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN GENERATION. AS SUCH...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED AND EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING SYSTEM ROLLING INTO THE REGION...THE RELATIVE LOCATION OF THE TROWAL AIR STREAM AND DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ATTENDANT NEGATIVE OMEGA WILL BE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS AND TO WHAT EXTENT IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS SAID...THE SREF HAS BEEN TROUBLINGLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST DAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH LENDS EXTREME CREDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS RELATIVE TO THE MORE INCONSISTENT GFS AND CANADIAN PROGRESSIONS. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF AND SREF FOR THE REFLECTION OF QPF AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...WHICH FAVORS A STRONG DEFORMATION BAND MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND IS LIKELY TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS STILL AN OPEN QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH FARTHER NORTHWARD IT MAY TRANSLATE. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEFORMATION LIFT AS WELL AS DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THAT WILL BE LIKELY TO TRY TO FEED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BE CONTROLLING FACTORS AS TO HOW FAR NORTHEAST SIGNIFICANT QPF MAY DEVELOP. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH I-80 MAY BE A GOOD TERMINATOR FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF...HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT SAID...DECENT CONSENSUS ON THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH A 6-10 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE OMEGAS STRINGING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FAVORS SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS UP TO 15:1 OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A LIKELY SECLUSION OF WARM AIR THAT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN OHIO...THESE RATIOS WERE CUT SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM WHEELING SOUTHWARD. BECAUSE THE MODELS FAVOR A FILLING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY AND A TRANSITION TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY TAKE OVER...AND THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL LIKELY FALL APART DUE TO FILLING OF THE LOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOWS TO END ON MONDAY...HOWEVER BEFORE THEY DO...THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE SREF...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL PAINT ROUGHLY 0.4-0.6 INCHES OF QPF UNDER THE FAVORED DEFORMATION AXIS PARKING REGION. ODDLY ENOUGH...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FAVORING A LOCATION SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED A COUPLE WEEKS AGO WHEN THE PA TURNPIKE CORRIDOR WAS SLAMMED. THAT SAID...THE FORECAST HAS ADJUSTED TAPERING THESE 0.4-0.6 INCH NUMBERS DOWNWARD AWAY FROM THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...YIELDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX OR SO INCHES IN A SWATH FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBIANA COUNTY OHIO TO WESTMORELAND/INDIANA COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE CONFIDENCE OF THIS LOCATION IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME...IT IS FULLY EXPECTED THAT ONE WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEAR FUTURE...PARTICULARLY FOR THE RIDGES...WHERE ADDITIONAL COOLING AND SOME UPSLOPE ASCENT WILL ACCENTUATE ACCUMULATIONS. ALL IN ALL...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOW SEEMS QUITE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN PARTICULAR ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FRIES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 compared to CTP... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON NEXT STORM SYSTEMMOVING TOWARDS CWA FROM THE WEST. COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN WITHLOW MOVING INTO OHIO VALLEY AND COASTAL REDEVLOPMENT. TEMPPROFILES VERY COLD AND PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. TIMING OF THISSYSTEM BRINGS WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION LATE SUN AFTERNOONTHROUGH MONDAY..BUT HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE STILL UNCERTAINGIVEN THE COMPLEX PATTERN. LOOKING AT LATEST GEFS AND SREFGUIDANCE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THECWA AND THAT IS WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY IS.FOR SE CORNER USED THE LOWEST RATIOS /GENERALLY AROUND 8:1/ GIVENTEMPERATURE...LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE. MOUNTAINSWILL SEE FLUFFIER SNOW /12:1/. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLIKELY AREA FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE IN THE SW QUARTER OFTHE CWA WITH A WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FOR THE REST OF THECWA. AFTER THIS REGION STAYS IN BASE OF TROF WITH NW FLOW SNOWSHOWERS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THEWORK WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM huge. What else is new. lol. But, looks like GGEM so maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Cut NAM qpf in half and I think its close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Only through hour 60. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I don't know if anyone here is a soccer fan but holy hell you guys should have been watching (or if you can watch the re-run!) the USMNT vs Costa Rica soccer game played tonight in Colorodo. At times blizzard conditions...just...awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Fun weather quizzes to take that I made. Enjoy. http://www.jetpunk.com/user-quizzes/34873/nws-advisorieswatcheswarnings http://www.jetpunk.com/user-quizzes/34873/weather-acronymsterms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Only through hour 60. lol Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Very high confidence this is MDT biggest snow fall of the season 6 plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Can't say I really agree with this map. 2-4 across western and central PA...I think just about every bit of guidance right now is showing something more significant than that. I also like how he managed to include Richmond in the 1-2 inch swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I disliked DT just for this reason he is awful. Will it snow Richmond? I will send some down to him this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I disliked DT just for this reason he is awful. Will it snow Richmond? I will send some down to him this time. and dont 4get this consistent bias aganist NE and specifically NYC & his incredibly foul mouth. Few explain models better but what an a$% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 and dont 4get this consistent bias aganist NE and specifically NYC & his incredibly foul mouth. Few explain models better but what an a$% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Talk about modelogist that is DT I had to dislike him on Facebook. He is awful period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Good runs tonight for s CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro pretty much sucks. Nothing new here. NAM huge, GFS ok, and Euro bad. Same old same old. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Too bad it's the nam but, this is a pretty sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Just from a quick look at the COOP data, probably 1970. 10.2" 3/13/70, 11.1" 3/29-4/1/70. Nice work! That makes sense because Easter fell on 3/29 in 1970. So my recollection of the 20" was correct, but it may have been from 2 big storms in March. Could have remained cold after the first one so my memory of the size of the Easter storm could have been from how much was on the ground from both storms prior to the flash melt following Easter. Both were pretty impressive snowfalls for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 State College is "iffy" in their discussion this morning. Miller B's in late March are almost never a good thing for big snows. Climatology is screaming that the NAM is out of its mind, and so are most of the global models. SREF/NAM shows big snows as it takes the secondary low from the Delmarva up the coast of NJ which puts the deform band over SC/SE PA. The differences I see that are causing the differences is due to the H5 orientation of the trough...seems that the GFS/Euro are flatter with the shortwave, and so the secondary development is farther east, sparing most of us of the heavy precip. Keep in mind, it's late March...the sun-angle is the same as the middle of September. Unless those omega values (vertical velocities) are high, there won't be any sticking during the day. It's prudent, at this juncture, to assume a widespread advisory event is possible/likely, with the potential of seeing warning criteria if the secondary develops closer to the coast. Another wild card, is the easterly flow. It burned many mets/forecasters in early March, including myself, due to the efficient transfer of milder ocean air inland. This storm has that sort of feel as well, but with the addition of a primary/secondary "handoff", which is even more cause for a bust potential. Bottom line: Things have to come together perfectly (as usual) for this to be a warning level storm. I would expect 2-4" for many, with 3-6 in SC PA and 6-10 in the highlands of WV/MD/and west-central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 State College is "iffy" in their discussion this morning. Miller B's in late March are almost never a good thing for big snows. Climatology is screaming that the NAM is out of its mind, and so are most of the global models. SREF/NAM shows big snows as it takes the secondary low from the Delmarva up the coast of NJ which puts the deform band over SC/SE PA. The differences I see that are causing the differences is due to the H5 orientation of the trough...seems that the GFS/Euro are flatter with the shortwave, and so the secondary development is farther east, sparing most of us of the heavy precip. Keep in mind, it's late March...the sun-angle is the same as the middle of September. Unless those omega values (vertical velocities) are high, there won't be any sticking during the day. It's prudent, at this juncture, to assume a widespread advisory event is possible/likely, with the potential of seeing warning criteria if the secondary develops closer to the coast. Another wild card, is the easterly flow. It burned many mets/forecasters in early March, including myself, due to the efficient transfer of milder ocean air inland. This storm has that sort of feel as well, but with the addition of a primary/secondary "handoff", which is even more cause for a bust potential. Bottom line: Things have to come together perfectly (as usual) for this to be a warning level storm. I would expect 2-4" for many, with 3-6 in SC PA and 6-10 in the highlands of WV/MD/and west-central PA. Thanks for sharing your insight. Expectations back in check. Seems like 2" - 4" would be a reasonable call for Lanc. Co. with the possibility to go up or down from there. FWIW today or tomorrow will take MBY temps to below normal for the year with March a certainty to be the second month in a row with below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah I have never expected warning snows from this one. I don't care what the NAM shows. If we even got the widespread 3-6" CTP is suggesting I would be pretty darn happy for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What's amazing about the SREFS, is how robust even the lowest members are. Here's a look at the SREF plumes for snowfall at LNS: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130323&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LNS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.9052624114706&mLON=-76.7344251953125&mTYP=roadmap Lowest member is just under 4" with the highest member just over 20" and a mean around 10". SREF's have performed POORLY this winter, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's amazing to see such high values in even the lowest members... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What's amazing about the SREFS, is how robust even the lowest members are. Here's a look at the SREF plumes for snowfall at LNS: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130323&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LNS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.9052624114706&mLON=-76.7344251953125&mTYP=roadmap Lowest member is just under 4" with the highest member just over 20" and a mean around 10". SREF's have performed POORLY this winter, so take it with a grain of salt, but it's amazing to see such high values in even the lowest members... Thanks alot! I've settled down into a 2"-4" mindset and you post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Thanks alot! I've settled down into a 2"-4" mindset and you post this. I like to be neutral and show the wide range of possibilities. WIDE range via all of the models. A 2-4" mindset is a solid place to be right now if you live in Ephrata! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 State College is "iffy" in their discussion this morning. Miller B's in late March are almost never a good thing for big snows. Climatology is screaming that the NAM is out of its mind, and so are most of the global models. SREF/NAM shows big snows as it takes the secondary low from the Delmarva up the coast of NJ which puts the deform band over SC/SE PA. The differences I see that are causing the differences is due to the H5 orientation of the trough...seems that the GFS/Euro are flatter with the shortwave, and so the secondary development is farther east, sparing most of us of the heavy precip. Keep in mind, it's late March...the sun-angle is the same as the middle of September. Unless those omega values (vertical velocities) are high, there won't be any sticking during the day. It's prudent, at this juncture, to assume a widespread advisory event is possible/likely, with the potential of seeing warning criteria if the secondary develops closer to the coast. Another wild card, is the easterly flow. It burned many mets/forecasters in early March, including myself, due to the efficient transfer of milder ocean air inland. This storm has that sort of feel as well, but with the addition of a primary/secondary "handoff", which is even more cause for a bust potential. Bottom line: Things have to come together perfectly (as usual) for this to be a warning level storm. I would expect 2-4" for many, with 3-6 in SC PA and 6-10 in the highlands of WV/MD/and west-central PA. A very good trend for us in UNV on the Euro was having more qpf at night. I like to be neutral and show the wide range of possibilities. WIDE range via all of the models. A 2-4" mindset is a solid place to be right now if you live in Ephrata! That's a great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Yeah, I'm going to go with 2-4" here as well. Not significant but a reminder that winter still has a foothold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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