Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Nam drops .5 inch line even further south...what a laughable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Not sure why the NWS has 3-6 inches here in State College. I'm thinking more like 2-3 inches... 4 if we get lucky. I think State College could manage about 4" or so fairly easily as long as rates are good enough. If it's more of a lighter drawn out event during the day Monday that 2-3 might well end up being the realized amount on the ground. CTP actually sounds fairly cautious in their discussion, if the SREFs had their way, there would be several more southern tier counties warned. They are giving some weight to the somewhat drier Euro, which is probably a good bet considering the last couple storms. I'm thinking 4-6" will generally be high end for this, with scattered 6-8 amounts relegated to the Laurels. IPT should see a couple inches and the Lower Sus Valley folks should manage more of a 2-5" type deal. This could certainly end up better or worse. It seems like the southern half of PA is in a pretty decent place for the track of this system, and we'll have a good easterly fetch. That should not be strong enough to introduce ptype issues for folks in this forum though like the March 6th storm. We also have better cold in place. One concern in the early going, at least in my opinion is the precip shield being a bit broken over Illinois and Indiana. I guess would like to have seen a more filled in look to things but there's still time for that to get it's act together. All in all this should end up yet another decent snow event considering what the calendar says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Well I need 4.3" to hit the 30" mark for the season. I nickeled and dimed my way there, but all and all I'd be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Big bust coming tomorrow for anyone expecting more than an inch or two south and east of I-81 from PA to VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offAT THIS POINT IN THE STORM`S EVOLUTION...UPSTREAM STATIONS AREONLY OBSERVING SNOW IN THE 1-3 MILE VISIBILITY RANGE. WHILE THAT`SNO GUARANTEE OF THE STORM`S EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL...I`D FEELBETTER IF I SAW MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING OVER THEMIDWEST. Wmsptwx IPT: less than an inch UNV: 2 to 4 MDT: 3 to 6 AOO: 4 to 6 JST: 4 to 6 AVP: Less than an inch. I think IPT will get 2" rest don't look to bad. The SREFs and NAM haven't been all that impressive lately. Several stations out around St. Louis have reported +SN in the past couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Big bust coming tomorrow for anyone expecting more than an inch or two south and east of I-81 from PA to Feeling the same way on this one. East of the Susky it's going to be rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I too have had the stomach flu the past two days and just got a bunch of FB posts saying we'll get half a foot of snow? I'm guessing since it is a long event it'll be a grass special - plus as Eskimo said expect more like 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I like the starting time of this one. Last event hit hardest around 3-6pm during peak sun angle etc, and still managed to accum on roads. Judging by satellite , this current storm has more energy and dynamics. I feel good about this one and 4-6" sounds good for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 My brother is down in Fla. for work, he just text said he heard 6-10 for us, lol! I like timing. I say 3-5" for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Since it is the calm before the storm. Thought I would post these 3 maps just to show how they differ. 1. Accuweather 2. TWC 3. NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 My brother is down in Fla. for work, he just text said he heard 6-10 for us, lol! I like timing. I say 3-5" for me 3-5 sounds right still am holding out this will be the biggest snow for MDT this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Might as well add this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Feeling the same way on this one. East of the Susky it's going to be rough. What makes you say that? Cold upper levels, marginal lower levels, sure, but the thump comes as temps are below 0c in the entire column as far east as Chester county. After 15z is the tricky part, but most accumulations will have fallen or fall in that time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Thundersnow reported in St. Louis Dynamics are showing themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 CTPs call of 3-6 while basically discounting the nam/srefs and noting weak radar to the west is encouraging to me, I'm a little surprised at how aggressive they are but they seem confident in advisory level stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If it snomw like it did a week ago tmw.rush our will be nasty. Still think they should put out a wsw for this one so people take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 If it snomw like it did a week ago tmw.rush our will be nasty. Still think they should put out a wsw for this one so people take notice. The NWS discusses that here. Hope it answers your question. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 3-5 sounds right still am holding out this will be the biggest snow for MDT this year.[/quote Yeah, i agree with you, this could be our biggest . Where is djr and his thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 WITHIN THE HIGHEST PWAT PLUME...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO UNDER DOTHE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY ALMOST 0.30 INCHES ALONG THE ERNGULF COAST. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd What implications is this going to have?? Good/ Bad Edit: That's alot of moisture. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Dew points are low across central PA right now, which normally would allow your to wet blub to at or below freezing once precipitation starts. But, winds are switching to the E -> SE and transporting in 40+ degree air off the ocean. This reinforces my thinking that south and east of I-81 is going to see minimal, if any impact from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 EURO is drier, only brings .5 to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 WITHIN THE HIGHEST PWAT PLUME...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO UNDER DO THE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY ALMOST 0.30 INCHES ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmdWhat implications is this going to have?? Good/ Bad Good this will over perform for the end of March. Not sure why some of worried. Edit: That's alot of moisture. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 WITHIN THE HIGHEST PWAT PLUME...THE 12Z NAM/GFS SEEM TO UNDER DO THE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY ALMOST 0.30 INCHES ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmdWhat implications is this going to have?? Good/ Bad Good this will over perform for the end of March. Not sure why some of worried. Edit: That's alot of moisture. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Paweather thanks for answering my question. EURO is drier, only brings .5 to PHL. Wmsptwx with this storm starting in about 12 hours is the Euro even in it's range? "that's a serious question" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Dew points are low across central PA right now, which normally would allow your to wet blub to at or below freezing once precipitation starts. But, winds are switching to the E -> SE and transporting in 40+ degree air off the ocean. This reinforces my thinking that south and east of I-81 is going to see minimal, if any impact from this storm. Perhaps this explains the crazy disparity between Hagerstown NWS forecast and Waynesboro NWS forecast. An inch or two for Hagerstown, 4-7 for Waynesboro--someone is going to bust hard, one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Paweather thanks for answering my question. Wmsptwx with this storm starting in about 12 hours is the Euro even in it's range? "that's a serious question" Back in the south convection along the Gulf coast was bad, as it robbed us of moisture. Not sure how it impacts things here, but if they're saying the NAM is underdoing the convection along the Gulf then it might not be a good thing (and perhaps another reason they're preferring the GFS/UKMET now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0322.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 So thats what happened earlier this month where the winds from east brought in warm air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hard to deny radar looks a lot healthier than the last event ever did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 iTunis and Joe Thanks for your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 40/21 currently . i agree, radar looks healthy current text forecast has me 4-8" total with only an advisory. i guess one 12 hr period won't see 6" but i believe this is the first time i've seen 4-8" without warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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