Mallow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 SREFs here in State College have trended up the past three runs. Latest run has a min of 4.4", max of 15.4", and a mean of 8.6" (median is around 7.7"). Still, I'm going to go with expecting 2-4 inches. We've seen this type of storm over and over again this winter, and I don't expect this one to be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I see the 12z GFS today has no more than .25" north of I80. Even the NAM only about .5", but a big hit for SEPA. Agree 2-4" sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm once again worried about the transport of mild ocean air back into eastern parts of the region. Much like the early March storm, another connection from the east will flow into SE PA. I don't think it's AS efficient as the previous storm at getting the milder air inland (the storm itself is weaker), but the wild card still remains. People living east of the Susquehanna River may have some mixing that would cut down on totals. Instead of 2-4" east of the river..it looks like a sloppy C-2 or 1-3", but maybe I'm being paranoid. Any others with thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I'm once again worried about the transport of mild ocean air back into eastern parts of the region. Much like the early March storm, another connection from the east will flow into SE PA. I don't think it's AS efficient as the previous storm at getting the milder air inland (the storm itself is weaker), but the wild card still remains. People living east of the Susquehanna River may have some mixing that would cut down on totals. Instead of 2-4" east of the river..it looks like a sloppy C-2 or 1-3", but maybe I'm being paranoid. Any others with thoughts on this? yeah i agree. As mentioned earlier, it has already happened this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Been peering into my home region forum...though they are in line for a lot of precip - at least in PHL proper, any snow might be slow to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Been peering into my home region forum...though they are in line for a lot of precip - at least in PHL proper, any snow might be slow to accumulate. Getting daytime snow to accumulate there in late march this time of year is an order of magnitude tougher than here I'd imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Boy GFS looks great lol. At this point I would rather a miss than an inch or two of slop, but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IF the snow is heavy enough then you should expect it to accumulate. March 93 had no issue with accumulation, it was only a week or so earlier. my guess would be that we will see widespread 2-4 with some areas over preforming. Remember we have seen a couple of models with big hits. I would give them a 10% of being close. (> 6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 My thoughts are I feel the best shot of good accumulations are west of I-81. Better timing due to precip moving in at night and higher elevation. I am feeling 2-4 for UNV with 6 inches on the higher ridge tops SW of town. The Laurels will be the winner with 6-10 in my opinion. In between 4-6. CTP's map looks spot on, except in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I smell a bust potential for people living east of the river...easterly flow off of mild ocean air is going to cause some p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Elinwood (red-tagger)'s forecast: Figured I should sneak in an initial forecast before going into work today. More of the same as far as sharp gradients and low-level temperature issues are concerned. Also, March. 20130324-25_MAsnowInitial.pngFurther discussion, though you all probably know how it is already: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-90-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-march-24-25-initial/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 4" probs. *** click to enlarge *** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAM is pretty dry up here relative to past runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacktalon Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 TWC calling for 5-8 for Harrisburg.does that sound feasible ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 IF the snow is heavy enough then you should expect it to accumulate. March 93 had no issue with accumulation, it was only a week or so earlier. my guess would be that we will see widespread 2-4 with some areas over preforming. Remember we have seen a couple of models with big hits. I would give them a 10% of being close. (> 6) March 93 also brought in extreme cold temps, and had very high snow rates. I seem to remember that at least in Pittsburgh, temps dropped through the 20's and teens in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAM is a big hit for LSV, increase in qpf up here. MDT: MON 2A 25-MAR 0.1 -5.6 1004 92 100 0.05 540 537 MON 8A 25-MAR -0.9 -6.4 1000 98 99 0.39 533 533 MON 2P 25-MAR -0.2 -6.6 997 94 98 0.54 528 530 MON 8P 25-MAR 0.7 -6.9 1003 95 81 0.14 532 530 UNV: MON 2A 25-MAR -1.3 -6.0 1004 96 97 0.09 538 535 MON 8A 25-MAR -2.0 -6.8 1002 98 96 0.32 532 530 MON 2P 25-MAR 1.0 -6.9 1000 85 90 0.19 530 530 MON 8P 25-MAR -0.1 -6.9 1004 90 52 0.03 534 530 IPT MON 2A 25-MAR -1.5 -6.0 1005 95 84 0.01 539 535 MON 8A 25-MAR -2.1 -6.7 1003 97 94 0.18 534 532 MON 2P 25-MAR 0.7 -7.3 1000 85 86 0.27 530 531 MON 8P 25-MAR -0.1 -7.0 1003 92 53 0.05 533 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Too bad it's the NAM, of course. The rates for MDT would be enough for daytime accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS about the same. Wouldn't take much of a shift to get UNV into 4-6. I feel 3-5 inches is my call for UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS snowfall looks to be pretty reasonable. As Allweather stated I'm wondering if later in the storm if mixing will be a problem. Mag must have taken this storm off for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 GFS snowfall looks to be pretty reasonable. As Allweather stated I'm wondering if later in the storm if mixing will be a problem. Mag must have taken this storm off for the weekend. Seems reasonable to me as well...I bet coastal Jersey gets another thump at the end with the trailing CCB. Also, not sure about that much snow south of the Mason-Dixon line (near Baltimore/D.C.)...Seems as though temps profiles will be iffy for accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Seems reasonable to me as well...I bet coastal Jersey gets another thump at the end with the trailing CCB. Also, not sure about that much snow south of the Mason-Dixon line (near Baltimore/D.C.)...Seems as though temps profiles will be iffy for accumulating snows. GFS has been very steady too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Final Guesses" IPT: less than an inch UNV: 2 to 4 MDT: 3 to 6 AOO: 4 to 6 JST: 4 to 6 AVP: Less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Had the stomach flu real bad the last couple of days so I missed out on some model watching. However, how bad are the SREFs and NAM? They had mod. to heavy precip up to the NY border yesterday...now they keep .5 line around Harrisburg. Just terrible models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Had the stomach flu real bad the last couple of days so I missed out on some model watching. However, how bad are the SREFs and NAM? They had mod. to heavy precip up to the NY border yesterday...now they keep .5 line around Harrisburg. Just terrible models. You feeling better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Not sure why the NWS has 3-6 inches here in State College. I'm thinking more like 2-3 inches... 4 if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 You feeling better? Yeah thanks man, hit me pretty quick Friday Night and was in bed until this morning. Watching Michigan spank VCU helped a bit though lol. Good luck out your way fellas!!! Thinking AOO has best shot at good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=offAT THIS POINT IN THE STORM`S EVOLUTION...UPSTREAM STATIONS AREONLY OBSERVING SNOW IN THE 1-3 MILE VISIBILITY RANGE. WHILE THAT`SNO GUARANTEE OF THE STORM`S EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL...I`D FEELBETTER IF I SAW MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING OVER THEMIDWEST. Wmsptwx IPT: less than an inch UNV: 2 to 4 MDT: 3 to 6 AOO: 4 to 6 JST: 4 to 6 AVP: Less than an inch. I think IPT will get 2" rest don't look to bad. The SREFs and NAM haven't been all that impressive lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Good info pawatch.....definitely would like to see lower visibility than 1 to 3 miles. If this were all falling at night we'd have it made...but eastern areas it certainly won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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