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Central PA - second half of March 2013

NortheastPAWx

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Some of these types of storms that drive overrunning into an area of confluence can be long-lasting, take PDII in 2003 for example. That one lasted 24 hours or more. I'm fairly confident it makes it far enough north to affect up to I-80 at least. That's a strong piece of energy driving this, and it'll try to run as far north as it can.

Thanks...going to be interesting. 

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

Note the reactions in the comments...you say winter storm and the general public thinks a monster storm. Trust me, the general public has the IQ of a brain-damaged amoeba when it comes to weather, and you really can't put ideas in their head like this. A better headline would be "Spring on hold as winter-like pattern continues"

Worst part is some seem to think that Pennlive is producing the forecast and therefore dont trust the weatherman

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Porsche

Porsche

Posted
Posted

Euro is a bit better than 0Z I suppose...I don't have the maps so I am not sure if it did again what jmister talked about above....but here's the UNV/IPT/MDT trinity:

 

UNV

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR  -1.7    -6.3    1007      84      99    0.02     540     534    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -2.2    -7.9    1008      94      98    0.21     536     529    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.5    -6.6    1008      61      96    0.06     538     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   0.4    -5.5    1011      79      93    0.02     539     530

 

MDT

 

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.1    -6.1    1007      73      99    0.02     542     536    MON 12Z 25-MAR  -0.4    -7.4    1007      92      99    0.19     536     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.3    -7.2    1007      57      94    0.06     537     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.0    -5.7    1010      76      96    0.01     539     531

 

IPT

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR  -2.5    -7.8    1010      92      97    0.10     536     529    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.8    -6.1    1008      60      92    0.06     537     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR  -1.1    -5.2    1010      82      80    0.01     538     530

Do you have it for KLNS?

Thanks

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

one thing I noticed that is big difference between Euro and GFS 12z runs for us is that GFS has inland low stronger at the surface and into Ohio before developing coastal low late... which often does not help us out very much... while Euro has coastal low stronger at the surface as it arrives and develops it off of Virginia coast.... reason for this outcome is how each model handles the energy at 500mb/700mb...

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Worst part is some seem to think that Pennlive is producing the forecast and therefore dont trust the weatherman

Yep

 

Lol...this is one of those ones I don't understand so I will just wait and see. Way too much original low...transfer...coastal low, confluence talk goes right over my head hahaha.

I don't get it either. 

 

Do you have it for KLNS?

Thanks

Here:

 

MON 06Z 25-MAR   1.3    -6.0    1007      69      98    0.01     542     536    MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.2    -7.1    1007      91     100    0.18     537     531    MON 18Z 25-MAR   4.3    -7.4    1007      56      96    0.07     537     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.2    -5.6    1009      75      97    0.01     539     531
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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Okay....have to share this with you all....my work friend asked me about early next week on our internal social media (Yammer)....he also told me about this:

 

My great grandpa lived to be 99, and died in 2001, and I never forget him telling me about the great snowstorm of April 28, 1928. He was a brand new Penn State ag professor, and lived out toward Boalsburg on a small farm he and my great grandma just bought. He said close to 20 inches fell and some said that in the mountains up to our west 30 inches fell. It was quite a mess. All their flowers, fruit trees, and his early garden stuff like lettuce were destroyed. If you lived on a dirt road, like many did, you were in trouble as you couldn't get those old cars out even after it all melted as they became muddy messes. Campus looked like a tornado had hit as many trees had started to leaf out and were crushed. Some roofs caved in on buildings. Just about every telephone, telegraph, and electric wire was down in the area and it took months to repair. Hope we don't have another one of those.

 

I also found this a bit ago and wanted to share:

 

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2012/23Apr2012.pdf

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Okay....have to share this with you all....my work friend asked me about early next week on our internal social media (Yammer)....he also told me about this:

 

My great grandpa lived to be 99, and died in 2001, and I never forget him telling me about the great snowstorm of April 28, 1928. He was a brand new Penn State ag professor, and lived out toward Boalsburg on a small farm he and my great grandma just bought. He said close to 20 inches fell and some said that in the mountains up to our west 30 inches fell. It was quite a mess. All their flowers, fruit trees, and his early garden stuff like lettuce were destroyed. If you lived on a dirt road, like many did, you were in trouble as you couldn't get those old cars out even after it all melted as they became muddy messes. Campus looked like a tornado had hit as many trees had started to leaf out and were crushed. Some roofs caved in on buildings. Just about every telephone, telegraph, and electric wire was down in the area and it took months to repair. Hope we don't have another one of those.

 

I also found this a bit ago and wanted to share:

 

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2012/23Apr2012.pdf

 

I came across this event about a week ago when I was trying to look around for local stuff (articles) on the '93 storm. I ended up finding a couple things on this event and the 1950 Appalachian storm instead.. both of which were amazing in their own right. I can't even imagine getting hit with that big of a snowstorm that time of the year. Just kind of shows that extreme events aren't as much of a "nowadays" thing as one would be led to believe. 

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

PennLive has a story up from NWS about winter history at MDT. Thought it'd be worth posting here.

 

Snowfall total so far this winter: 15.6”
Normal snowfall: 30.6”
Record for last 40 years: 77.6” in 1995-96, followed by 75.9” in 1993-94.
Snowfall record since 1888: 81.3”, 1960-61
2011-12 snowfall: 11.3”, 9.7” of which fell in October

Precipitation since Jan 1: 6.9”

Average precipitation: 7.26”
Coldest winter: 1904-5, average 23.1 degrees
Warmest winter: 1931-32, 40.2 degrees
Highest temperature this winter: 67 degrees, Dec. 4, 2012
Record: 78 degrees, Feb. 27, 1997
Coldest temperature this winter: 10 degrees Jan. 27
Record: minus 22 degrees, Jan. 21, 1994
Average temperature this winter: 34.4 degrees
Normal average: 32.2 degrees

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

I came across this event about a week ago when I was trying to look around for local stuff (articles) on the '93 storm. I ended up finding a couple things on this event and the 1950 Appalachian storm instead.. both of which were amazing in their own right. I can't even imagine getting hit with that big of a snowstorm that time of the year. Just kind of shows that extreme events aren't as much of a "nowadays" thing as one would be led to believe. 

I just got done talking to him in person. He said he was told the snow fell in flakes that were the size of tennis balls for a few hours at one point. He also said there were hardly any rabbits that hunting season and fewer squirrels. Get this - he said there were DRIFTS! I can't imagine that. Also, to make matters worse, telephone poles were basically any old tree cut down and the branches removed so most of them snapped. They had to basically redo the entire system up here. Another link about it: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/056/mwr-056-06-0226.pdf

 

PennLive has a story up from NWS about winter history at MDT. Thought it'd be worth posting here.

 

Snowfall total so far this winter: 15.6”

Normal snowfall: 30.6”

Record for last 40 years: 77.6” in 1995-96, followed by 75.9” in 1993-94.

Snowfall record since 1888: 81.3”, 1960-61

2011-12 snowfall: 11.3”, 9.7” of which fell in October

Precipitation since Jan 1: 6.9”

Average precipitation: 7.26”

Coldest winter: 1904-5, average 23.1 degrees

Warmest winter: 1931-32, 40.2 degrees

Highest temperature this winter: 67 degrees, Dec. 4, 2012

Record: 78 degrees, Feb. 27, 1997

Coldest temperature this winter: 10 degrees Jan. 27

Record: minus 22 degrees, Jan. 21, 1994

Average temperature this winter: 34.4 degrees

Normal average: 32.2 degrees

My dad always talked about 60-61 being so rough. 

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Easy, I'm not complaining, I am telling those without access it backed off. You're right, it is April and I'm sure most of us would be fine if it didn't pan out with other outdoor activities to do.

Everyone has access to the models.

 

Just one run, and who knows what happens next. As long as it's cold might as well snow. Still a ways to go before this storm.

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted

Hearing from some red-taggers that confluence will not let up enough for this to come north, very similar to March 7th and 8th event. However, it looks much colder than that situation....so  Turnpike crew, it's your time to shine!

we are so due. havent got the snow blower out in 2 plus years....ready to sell it.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Hearing from some red-taggers that confluence will not let up enough for this to come north, very similar to March 7th and 8th event. However, it looks much colder than that situation....so  Turnpike crew, it's your time to shine!

I am seeing more talk of how the storm isn't going to be that intense so maybe no one gets a big storm. 

 

The only hope for warm temps on the GFS out 11-15 is the post-Easter storm to track to our northwest. I haven't seen anything on the Euro weeklies, I trust them more. 

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