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Central PA - March 2013


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I know a bunch of us also read and sometimes post in the other region forums...I know a bunch of us also read and sometimes post in the other region forums...

 

I don't, normally, but if I win this, I'm going to the NYC thread and Richmond, VA threads and posting OVER 9,000!!!!! gifs of football spikes and deion sanders dances.

 

 

Mitchell Gaines said it was having massive feedback issues.

 

The term "massive feedback issues" just sounds bad. Like, "7:30 AM after a night of enchiladas and jagermeister" bad. Any shot at some new wording here? lol

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I just thought his view of possible feedback issues was relevant for the the GFS run as a whole because he is a Met. Does he work at Mt. Holly? Edit: Djr, just thought I should have backed up my reason for posting his view in our forum. You responded as I was typing, haha

lol your post was fine. I was just stating what I said because there are good mets and non-mets in the other forums with good informaiton that is great to share what they post here.  Just wanted to caution that sometimes a post elsewhere might be based on their location or a specific location someone else is asking about and not the model as a whole. If not careful this then it turns into "so and so said the 12z run is warmer" and that then gets posted in another forum as "so and so from central pa said 12z run is warmer" when as a whole that might not be true. This was happening in one of the other threads yesterday where someone was trying to do a play by play of a model run but wasnt relaying the information they saw from another region properly so it made it seem as if the model run was doing something completely different from what it actually was.

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oh this place is full of lolz today, I have him blocked so i didn';t see his post, but man did this make me laugh. "son"! hahahahahah

Sorry...he does this all the time. More or less telling CTP what they should and shouldn't do, but then makes himself look silly on the next model run by questioning the decision again in the opposite manner. Imagine if Eric Horst or CTP went back and forth every couple of hours...

Sorry folks...carry on!

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Mitchell Gaines said it was having massive feedback issues.

The term "massive feedback issues" just sounds bad. Like, "7:30 AM after a night of enchiladas and jagermeister" bad. Any shot at some new wording here? lol

Haha, I was trying to quote him but forgot the quotation marks. He said "the GFS has massive feedback issues in my view". I don't think he has posted his reasoning and I'm not going to even pretend I know enough about the underlining framework of the GFS to be cognizant of how such feedback issues might distort the run.

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I spoke too soon. His response to Famartin:

Do you believe the EC and GFS are having an identical problem? Because the 12Z GFS is extremely similar to the 0Z ECMWF.

I would disagree with that granted the EC does have thunderstorms in that general area offshore the QPF is 1 inches on the Ec in that region not 3 like the 12z GFS. As a result the EC actually has A CCB.

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Crazy that there's a Warning only ~10 miles south of UNV right now for all of Huntingdon county.  In a place where this is the point forecast is only for 2-4.

 

I think 1-2" State College is a good call.  I'd be pretty surprised if we even squeeze 3 at this point.  Non-headline event and another near miss-- but pumped for you southern tier folks who are finally gonna get a good one!!  Enjoy it!  Even though it's all gonna melt in three days ;)

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 AM EST TUE MAR 05 2013

VALID MAR 05/1200 UTC THRU MAR 09/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS...INCLUDING PRELIMINARY
PREFERENCES

THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12Z
NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT ITS FCST.

...UPR LOW MIGRATING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLC
THRU LATE WED...
...CONTINUING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THU...

PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE 09Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET
(CONFIDENCE AVERAGE).

A STRONG UPR LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO WED BEFORE TURNING EAST
NORTHEAST LATE WED INTO THU AS IT TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WHILE AGREEMENT IS BETTER THAN
AVERAGE WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...DIFFERENCES IN TRACK DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW MUCH OF A N TURN THIS LOW WILL TAKE AS SOME
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE A GREATER IMPACT IN NEW ENGLAND.

THE OLDER NAM RUNS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE CYCLONE TIMING INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND THE 12Z RUN HAS NUDGED THE FORWARD SPEED FASTER.
THE NAM HAS NUDGED THE OVER-WATER TRACK NORTH OF ITS 00Z RUN BUT
IS STILL ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE SFC
LOW POSITIONS/TRACK. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED THE SFC-700 MB LOW
FASTER OFFSHORE AND THIS TREND MAKES THE GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTION
OF THE SUITE OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES.
GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN...A FASTER SOLUTION IS NOT
PREFERRED....WITH THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN CLUSTERING BETTER TIMING
WISE WITH THE 09Z SREF MEAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF.

THE CONSENSUS PREFERENCE IS REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE 09Z SREF
MEAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml#verification  found this under Model Diagnostic Discussion

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I just thought his view of possible feedback issues was relevant for the the GFS run as a whole because he is a Met. Does he work at Mt. Holly? Edit: Djr, just thought I should have backed up my reason for posting his view in our forum. You responded as I was typing, haha

GFS is having feedback issues, but the problem is knowing weather it is correct or not.  Feedback does happen, sometimes its an error and other times it actually does interfere with the dynamics of the storm and the development of a healthy CCB.  The problem for southern PA is not the track.  If you look at the low track across interior southeast VA and over the southernn Chesapeake that is perfect for the area near and just north of the Mason Dixon line.  The problem as I see now, that makes a HUGE impact on the southern teir of PA into central PA, is the Euro and now the GFS go through a period tomorrow where the low stalls, occludes, becomes stacked, then transfers east.  As this transfer takes place, the vv's and forcing in the ccb slacks off a bit, the globals are less amped with the system so they really kill the transfer of moisture into the ccb more then the high res models.  Then as the system is less organized that convection to the east is enough to pull the whole thing east.  This whole process causes the ccb to contract for a time and pull back down into northern VA, then transfer east.  By the time the system gets amped up again, its well east of our area.  The high res models are way more amped with the system, more dynamic, and thus during this transition they hold the ccb together better.  The system still goes though this transition but since it is more amped to begin with, it is able to hold itself together and fire up again, and thus the convection to the east of the low has little or no impact on the system.  I have no idea which solution is more correct, I like that the high resolution models are on our side, especially the high res nam and most of the SREF solutions.  If we start to lose those, then its probably game over. I suspect reality ends up a compromise between the high res and the globals.  Just my 2 cents, and probably not worth more then that. 

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HRRR has not been fully working lately... but this is from the tail end of the 13z run... bringing precip into PA before midnight tonight!

High res models are loving our area, globals not so much.  I explained why in my post above.  I think a compromise is a good way to go, and that is not a bad result for southern PA. 

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High res models are loving our area, globals not so much.  I explained why in my post above.  I think a compromise is a good way to go, and that is not a bad result for southern PA. 

yea that is something I wasn't noticing until now and makes complete sense... thanks

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Crazy that there's a Warning only ~10 miles south of UNV right now for all of Huntingdon county.  In a place where this is the point forecast is only for 2-4.

 

Northern Huntingdon County, Warriors Mark, Barree, Pine Grove etc etc etc will see your 2-4 but it's a large county in terms of north-south. Huntingdon proper will probably see about 5-6 inches while to the south,  places like Orbisonia, Shade Gap, Rockhill are all within the 8-10 that most would put for the parts just north of the southern tier.

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Northern Huntingdon County, Warriors Mark, Barree, Pine Grove etc etc etc will see your 2-4 but it's a large county in terms of north-south. Huntingdon proper will probably see about 5-6 inches while to the south,  places like Orbisonia, Shade Gap, Rockhill are all within the 8-10 that most would put for the parts just north of the southern tier.

 

I will take my 3-5 and sign on the dotted line.

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