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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope


stormtracker

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But really, how likely is that?

 

i dunno. i wouldnt be shocked tho 1.4" would be a surprise. it still give dc like 9" snow too on that run. not sure how accurate the meteograms are.

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i dunno. i wouldnt be shocked tho 1.4" would be a surprise. it still give dc like 9" snow too on that run. not sure how accurate the meteograms are.

I wouldn't be too worried about pellets.  Just looking at the 18Z GFS but BUFKIT (IAD,DCA, and BWI), but I see no signs of pellets at all.  Even unsaturated right before the column saturates, pellets wouldn't be likely (completely ignoring the fact that the column is dry/void of precip).  Once saturation begins, the wet bulb profile is cool enough that the entire column above the BL goes below freezing.

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I wouldn't be too worried about pellets. Just looking at the 18Z GFS but BUFKIT (IAD,DCA, and BWI), but I see no signs of pellets at all. Even unsaturated right before the column saturates, pellets wouldn't be likely (completely ignoring the fact that the column is dry/void of precip). Once saturation begins, the wet bulb profile is cool enough that the entire column above the BL goes below freezing.

Yeah we discussed that earlier just hadn't seen it on that product

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While I understand that he's been blogging, I find Wes's absence notable.

His afternoon CWG update was bullish... especially for him... very much "Wes- like" he basically gave us a 33-33-33 shot for three different scenarios...  he is the hands-down best making an "I don't  know what is gonna happen forecast" look fancy and sophisticated... sometimes I dont think he realizes he is doing it when he does...

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Anxiously awaiting the NAM. Think I wouldn't mind it all to see a slight southerly jog.

Hey, is there any reason (synoptic-based) modeled QPF could increase further region-wide, or that temp profiles become cooler? If we truly do receive 1.75"+ QPF that's 90% snow, measuring a 6-10er just won't cut it for me.

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i think in 94 we had a brutal sleet storm, but i think that was because the storm came a little further west than expected.

I'd have to look for the date, but remember the forecast called for something silly like 30+ inches of snow, warm layer wrapped in and all fell as sleet. We got the quantity, just wrong form.

As a side note, it is still flurrying here, been falling for 5+ days, just never has accumulated due to rates. LOTS of T's.....

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