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Wintry mix event 2/21 - 2/22


Brick Tamland

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I was sitting with the principal at my daughters game tonight and we were all dumbfounded. We don't get "snow days". Any days missed have to be made up.

 

Everyone makes up snow days to equal the state required 180 days.  In the mountains they just schedule more than 180 days to start with so while it seems like they don't make up days it's kind of an illusion.

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Idk guys... I think this has bust written all over it. Wet bulbs are still above freezing over most of NC outside the far northern portions and mountains. Precip is racing in faster than most models had it which may beat out high pressure trying to nose in from the north that is needed to drive the wedge. I think the further east you are the better off you will be. 

 

East winds at Hickory/Greensboro/Winston aren't gonna cut it.

 

They're above freezing everywhere in NC according to the SPC conditions:

 

q5ZqjDX.png

 

Edit:  OK, there prob two counties in NE NC that are below freezing at the wet-bulb.

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Don't forget about snowflakes melting and cooling the column. :)  But yeah, wetbulbs above freezing everywhere with east winds is not what you want to see for winter weather, outside of some token sleet/snow at the onset for those lucky enough to see it.  Then WAA takes over, ice nucleation region dries, and the column warms throughout.  Yay.  :arrowhead:

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 933 PM THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ATM...PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHWESTERN NC

IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE AND

MID-LEVEL DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT IMPULSE(S)

THAT HAS DETACHED ITSELF FROM THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX LIFTING NORTHWARD

INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE CURRENT UPSTREAM

RADAR TRENDS ARE IMPRESSIVE...THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED

TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...BECOMING FARTHER REMOVED

FROM THE BETTER UPPER LOW DYNAMICS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE

UPPER MIDWEST WITH MID-LEVEL WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION

BECOMING THE PRIMARY GENERATOR OF LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH

DAYBREAK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WARM ADV/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A

30 TO 40 LOW LVL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

REVIEW OF OBSERVED PRECIP AMOUNTS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE TN

VALLEY...NORTHERN MS/GA...INDICATE THAT THE SREF MEAN IS VERIFYING

THE BEST ATM...WITH THE NAM TOO DRY AND THE GFS TOO WET...ESPECIALLY

ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD TRUE...THE SREF MEAN

BRINGS APPROXIMATELY AROUND A 0.25" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT INTO THE

TRIAD WITH A STRIP OF A 0.10" ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF FORECAST

AREA. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE(DEWPOINTS

STILL IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S)...LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF THIS

AMOUNT(ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW

PIEDMONT)WOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WET-BULB(EVAP COOL) THE SFC

TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING AOA DAYBREAK IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH

AN INCREASE THREAT OF NUISANCE ICING...ESPECIALLY IN THE

TRIAD/PERSON COUNTY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITHIN A HEAVY PRECIP AREA...BUT THIS WOULD BE A BRIEF GEE

WHIZ MOMENT. AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE A LIGHT ICE ACCRUAL

FROM FREEZING RAIN.

:lol:

 

Crazy I am almost 10 degrees cooler than ya'll out west, wetbulbs kinda even out, but still, doubt we make it to the freezing mark tonight, or in the morning for that matter.
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I'm sure it's going to sleet for a little while per reports already, but I just don't see us getting down to freezing? Maybe i'm wrong Idk!!!

 

We are actually set to get the heaviest returns according to radar. They really picked up or started showing intense sleet or something as soon as they passed Asheville. Should help cool us off better.

 

318263_413413615418305_1861949145_n.jpg

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Wake County delayed 3 hours

 

I really don't get it.  Part of me hates to second guess it, but what in the world?  If wet bulbs across the state are above freezing, how are we going to get hazardous conditions enough to warrant a 3 hour delay?  I'm seriously asking.

 

When I was in school, it was a one hour delay, stretched to two, if conditions warranted in the morning.  I know they have year-round and staggered start times now to consider...but three hours for what looks like a winter "event" that seems very unlikely to have a high impact (or even a low one)??

 

What am I missing?

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Blacksburg as of 9:15

 

MODELS BRINGS THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LATEST
TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL INDICATE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A CHANGE TO PRIMARILY FREEZING
RAIN. BEST LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 7AM COMES WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED AMOUNT OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGH 7AM. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
TEENS AS OF 02Z/9PM WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD.
STILL PLENTY OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING POSSIBLE TO BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.


FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BELIEVE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOSE TO A QUARTER INCH...WHERE THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS IDEAL FOR UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT.
ELSEWHERE...LOOKING FOR BETWEEN ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND LESS THAN A TENTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS ADVISORY CRITERIA INCLUDES ANY ICING.

 

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I really don't get it.  Part of me hates to second guess it, but what in the world?  If wet bulbs across the state are above freezing, how are we going to get hazardous conditions enough to warrant a 3 hour delay?  I'm seriously asking.

 

When I was in school, it was a one hour delay, stretched to two, if conditions warranted in the morning.  I know they have year-round and staggered start times now to consider...but three hours for what looks like a winter "event" that seems very unlikely to have a high impact (or even a low one)??

 

What am I missing?

Agreed, only thing I can think of is they don't want high school buses on the road at 6am if there is frozen precip. This looks like mainly a rain event except for the VA/NC border, IMO.

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I have a few sleet pellets outside.  My run of the mill home thermometer says 50 deg.  Charlotte airport reporting 51 deg at 10PM....think the highest temp I've ever seen sleet is around 49 deg

 

Here's the 00z NAM CLT sounding for 10PM (via RAP)...

 

 

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I really don't get it.  Part of me hates to second guess it, but what in the world?  If wet bulbs across the state are above freezing, how are we going to get hazardous conditions enough to warrant a 3 hour delay?  I'm seriously asking.

 

When I was in school, it was a one hour delay, stretched to two, if conditions warranted in the morning.  I know they have year-round and staggered start times now to consider...but three hours for what looks like a winter "event" that seems very unlikely to have a high impact (or even a low one)??

 

What am I missing?

No mystery.  They are erring on the side of caution.

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