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Wintry mix event 2/21 - 2/22


Brick Tamland

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Well, the 18z NAM looks to be colder than the 12z run. However, the precip field is worlds apart from the 12z GFS.  It's pretty laughable at the differences considering this is less than 24 hours out that we are talking about.  In fact, if you compare the 6hr NAM to the 12hr GFS the models are keying on different areas with the heaviest precip.  The Nam put more precip into Illinois and Western Tennesse, while the GFS has max precip over Louisiana and Alabama.  By looking at the radar, I think the NAM looks to verify better although it does seem a little slow.

NCEP did acknowledge that NAM initiated way on the NW side of guidance tho this afternoon and it was "highly" discounted at the time.

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Someone posted this in the original thread.

 

SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT
LAKES...
PRELIM PREFERENCE:  12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

THE 12Z NAM QUICKLY GETS TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.  ALSO...THE NAM ADJUSTED
DEEPER WITH THE CYCLONE COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN AND IS NOW A
STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE
12Z GFS CAME IN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN AND COMPARES WELL
WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF.  EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE 00Z UKMET/CMC BOTH APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO SUPPRESSED
WITH THE CYCLONE...SO THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE THE RECOMMENDED
MODEL CHOICES FOR THIS FEATURE.
 

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GSP expanding advisories to include I-40 cooridor, Polk and Rutherford counties along US 74 and the French Broad Valley counties.

 

Discussion stated that it could be mainly sleet roughly I-40 and north with frz rain at the end. Mainly frz rain for Asheville, Hendersonville, and some frz in Forest City...they're really forecasting on the high side of the event.

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Someone posted this in the original thread.

 

SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT

LAKES...

PRELIM PREFERENCE:  12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

THE 12Z NAM QUICKLY GETS TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF MODEL

SPREAD WITH TRACKING THE LOW THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND

INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.  ALSO...THE NAM ADJUSTED

DEEPER WITH THE CYCLONE COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN AND IS NOW A

STRONG OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE

12Z GFS CAME IN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z RUN AND COMPARES WELL

WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF.  EARLY IN THE FORECAST

PERIOD...THE 00Z UKMET/CMC BOTH APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO SUPPRESSED

WITH THE CYCLONE...SO THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE THE RECOMMENDED

MODEL CHOICES FOR THIS FEATURE.

 

 

Yeah, I did, but it's so different, we are within 12-18 hours, it can't be that wrong.

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15zsrefptype018.gif15z SREF

 

[img=http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/15zsrefptype021.gif]

 

Alot of the qpf up to hr 27 is frozen per sref espeacilly in Triad NW NC so you can see the potential if this verefied for border counties,northern foothills and northern mtns/eastern escarpment.

 

[img=http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/15zsrefp24_SE027.gif]

Good post and this is what I was alluding to back on the first page when looking at the SREF seemed pretty juicy on 15z run so we have the Nam and SREF agreeing with one another let's see if the GFS jumps on board. Boy my ride is going to be interesting tomorrow thru fancy gap on 77 heading down the mountain into NC

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Morehead City just put out an advisory for their furthest inland counties.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC324 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING....A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT ONTOP OF TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAINWILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE FRIDAY.PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUETHROUGH THE DAY.NCZ029-044-079-090-091-221100-/O.NEW.KMHX.WW.Y.0004.130222T0900Z-130222T1400Z/MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...GREENVILLE...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON324 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM ESTFRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN WILL  BE POSSIBLE...AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY.* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING  CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.* WIND CHILL...IN THE MID 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT A MIXTURE OF RAIN ANDFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATESTUPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.&&$
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT

AND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR

IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A

WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS

WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND

CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE

NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN

FOOTHILLS...ALONG WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF

SLEET AND SNOW...THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK

FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY

MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-220445-

/O.EXB.KGSP.WW.Y.0013.130222T0400Z-130222T1700Z/

ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-

GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...

SALISBURY

341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO

NOON EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS

IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF

THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL BEGIN BY LATE EVENING...CHANGING TO SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO

CHANGE TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN BACK TO

RAIN BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATION...ALONG WITH UP TO A

TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...SLEET WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS

OVERNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATING ON TOP OF THE SLEET AND SNOW MAY

CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

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Freezeing rain adv just post furture south into the so. foothills.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AS
WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS...ALONG WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW...THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NCZ508-510-220445-
/O.EXB.KGSP.ZR.Y.0002.130222T0400Z-130222T1700Z/
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
341 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF POLK AND RUTHERFORD
  COUNTIES.

* HAZARDS...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
  CHANGING BACK TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS LEADING INTO THE HIGHER
  ELEVATIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

 

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Winter Weather Advisory WIN.gif

Statement as of 4:11 PM EST on February 21, 2013

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to

1 PM EST Friday... 

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Winter

Weather Advisory for freezing rain and sleet... which is in effect

from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* Locations... Southside Virginia into the Piedmont of North

Carolina. 

* Hazard types... main hazard will be freezing rain... with lesser

concern for sleet. 

* Accumulations... sleet accumulation of less than an inch with a

trace to as much as a tenth of an inch of freezing rain.

* Timing... developing after midnight and continuing into Friday

morning. Expected to impact to the Friday morning commute.

* Impacts... untreated roads will become icy and hazardous for

travel.

* Winds... east around 5 to 10 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

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Winter Weather Advisory WIN.gif

Statement as of 4:11 PM EST on February 21, 2013

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 11 PM this evening to

1 PM EST Friday... 

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Winter

Weather Advisory for freezing rain and sleet... which is in effect

from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* Locations... Southside Virginia into the Piedmont of North

Carolina. 

* Hazard types... main hazard will be freezing rain... with lesser

concern for sleet. 

* Accumulations... sleet accumulation of less than an inch with a

trace to as much as a tenth of an inch of freezing rain.

* Timing... developing after midnight and continuing into Friday

morning. Expected to impact to the Friday morning commute.

* Impacts... untreated roads will become icy and hazardous for

travel.

* Winds... east around 5 to 10 mph.

* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.

 

T-0.10" of ZR? Weaksauce.

 

prb_24hicez_95prcntil_2013022200f024_sm.

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clouds rolling in already and 55 degrees not good!  that will put a stop to temps dropping fast.

 

 

TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING...THEN SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WITH RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE
ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND
A TRACE. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
 

 

Just a trace!!! no big deal... it seems?

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Yes, and the snowfall map has expanded for a good portion of NC.  Again, maybe this is more sleet than snow, but that 850 line is pretty far south per the 18Z GFS and the precip is quite high.

 

It is odd to look at that and see Boone with no mention of snow in the winter weather advisory, but we see it for Greensboro. 

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