Feb 27th threat - to be discussed in time, but it should tend to more Miller B

[PWMan]

Yes, about 25 miles. New GYX map is scary gradientially in my 'hood.

Yeah, that gradient has gotten even sicker. It's an odd look with warnings for interior York County going straight to nothing -- not even advisories -- closer to the coast.

[CT Rain]

That was before all the models trended warmer on me. I call that stupid luck for both of us.

 

I was talking for my backyard in West Hartford. I'd say 1-2 for you and Tolland. 

[Modfan]

NWS cut back snow total's here from 1-2" to little or no snow accumulation. It's a good thing we will get snow/freezing rain here and temps no higher than 34F, because rain does not melt snow.

Yeah, a little surprised for that we appear to get a inch or less, I was thinking 1-2 here with 2-4 in the Woodstock/Union hills.  

[Tropopause_Fold]

I was talking for my backyard in West Hartford. I'd say 1-2 for you and Tolland. 

yeah i laid out my thoughts earlier on....very similar. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm probably a mile or two to the 4-6"  line. lol

 

 

Warning in Holden, and nothing in Shrewsbury/ Worcester. Classic late winter marginal snowfall warning layout. I usually get 2-4" of slop out of these back home. Will could pull of 8" or a lot less. BOX map seems to think only 2" for him?

[HoarfrostHubb]

meh meh meh meh meh....meh meh

 

hope it verifies like the last event...oh, wait, I can't use sarcasm?

[teebrdsfan]

My friend from UNH just texted saying he got a notification of 8-12" WSW on his phone...but they are very close to the coast and literally like below 100' elevation. If they're going to be in a warning, shouldn't GYX have 4-8" warnings for their southern coastal zones? I don't know...maybe they get 8" but I think it will be difficult.

They are literally 5 miles north of where there aren't even advisories up, and the P+C says less than an inch. A little confusing I will admit.

edit: Not to mention GYX map has <1" for them. Why aren't they consistent???

Yeah I'm in Newmarket and not even under an advisory while 4 miles down the road in Durham it's WSW for 8-12...talk about a gradient

[powderfreak]

These maps have warnings almost to the coast in NH...then the snowfall map has less than 1"?

]

Doesn't look bad...I mean you can really only use the zone breakouts you have. Everyone of the warned counties in GYX's area has some part forecast for warning snows. There's only so much you can break it down on the county level. It's not like severe whet you issue a polygon.

Like Will said, they can only get so detailed in this stuff and at some point you use local knowledge to figure out your backyard.

[wxmanmitch]

New ALY map cut way back. The earlier map had me solidly in the 8-10" zone with 10-14" just to my east. Current map has me on the line between 2-4" and 4-6". While I thought the earlier map was a bit overdone, I think this one is underdone.

 

I'm still going to stick with my call of 6-7" for the Lenox, Pittsfield area with 10-12" up near 2K. I'm also thinking 2-4" for the Albany area with 1-2" down near Hudson. Some of the Catskills may see double figures as well. I also think the BOX map may be a bit underdone for the northern Pioneer Valley with the 1-2". I'd go 2-4" for there, with 1-2" for the Springfield area.

[weatherMA]

Doesn't look bad...I mean you can really only use the zone breakouts you have. Everyone of the warned counties in GYX's area has some part forecast for warning snows. There's only so much you can break it down on the county level. It's not like severe whet you issue a polygon.

Like Will said, they can only get so detailed in this stuff and at some point you use local knowledge to figure out your backyard.

Well yes, I can, but not everyone can. It's confusing when my friend from UNH in Durham near the coast has a WSW for 8-12" and one town SE has absolutely nothing and a P+C forecast of <1". I know its a small nit pick but it gets confusing to the public. 

[N. OF PIKE]

Gotta like subdude's 1180 elev and latitude in sne for a nice thump. Wrt box weenie maps, I salute them for making them,gyx to, but man what a hugely difficult map to put together remotely accurate for this storm. Also any notice 7h temps are milder than 850's over us. As mpm would say hmmmm

[weatherMA]

Yeah I'm in Newmarket and not even under an advisory while 4 miles down the road in Durham it's WSW for 8-12...talk about a gradient

Yeah exactly. While it will be extreme, it won't be THAT bad.

[powderfreak]

Well yes, I can, but not everyone can. It's confusing when my friend from UNH in Durham near the coast has a WSW for 8-12" and one town SE has absolutely nothing and a P+C forecast of <1". I know its a small nit pick but it gets confusing to the public.

Yeah I hear that....but on the flip side, the north side of that county is forecast for over 6 or 8 inches. So you don't issue anything for that zone and that big snow verifies, you have folks saying that nothing was forecast and we lost power from 8" of heavy wet snow.

It's like any event with a large gradient over a short distance.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ping ping ping

[Damage In Tolland]

I also see a lot of 1-3 or 4 inch amounts Thurs nite into Fri with the ULL . Models hinting at that

[CT Rain]

38.4/27 here. Probably some frozen at the onset. 

[powderfreak]

Yeah I'm in Newmarket and not even under an advisory while 4 miles down the road in Durham it's WSW for 8-12...talk about a gradient

But the point and click does not show that.

It's like a SVR warning with a thunderstorm clipping a county. The warning shows up for the entire county but you may not see a cloud, lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I also see a lot of 1-3 or 4 inch amounts Thurs nite into Fri with the ULL . Models hinting at that

You and your ULL. But yeah. 1" from dat

[CoastalWx]

925 0C barely gets to ORH at 18z. Makes me think 6+ ORH. This is on the euro.

[dendrite]

18z NAM BL temps are horrible even up to here. Ugh.

[teebrdsfan]

Yeah exactly. While it will be extreme, it won't be THAT bad.

Nope, can't split the county easily and it looks like Rockingham county is going to be somewhat of a battleground between colder and warmer. It's splitting hairs really. I'll see some snow I'm sure.

[CT Rain]

18z NAM BL temps are horrible even up to here. Ugh.

 

Meh... GFS looks a lot colder. 18z may have ticked colder from 12z. Good stuff. 

[weatherMA]

18z NAM BL temps are horrible even up to here. Ugh.

Yeah like 37-38F even at 18z tomorrow during heavy precip. Yikes. GFS is a little better but has 34-35F. I think I get 1-3" during the day and then most of my accum post sunset. Maybe 4-8" or so total.

 

It's a tough call though even up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

925 0C barely gets to ORH at 18z. Makes me think 6+ ORH. This is on the euro.

The trick forORH is N Ct. If we are ripping at 6:00 am and get 3-4 then he gets double that or more

[moneypitmike]

I also see a lot of 1-3 or 4 inch amounts Thurs nite into Fri with the ULL . Models hinting at that

As long as it doesn't impact my flight home Thursday night (or out that morning)

[powderfreak]

You and your ULL. But yeah. 1" from dat

Yeah I'll go with 1" instead of up to 3 or 4".

Some seem like they will be surprised at how toasted the boundary layer is once the heavier precip moves out. It'll have to really organize under the ULL to drop temps from upper 30s back to freezing to accumulate snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

35.1/26 as I walk in the door. Bring on the snow

[Ginx snewx]

GFS ends winter, Morch?

[teebrdsfan]

But the point and click does not show that.

It's like a SVR warning with a thunderstorm clipping a county. The warning shows up for the entire county but you may not see a cloud, lol.

Yeah Durham's point and click is very Rockingham-like meh. Drippity drip...

[Mr Torchey]

35.1/26 as I walk in the door. Bring on the snow

Ride the Euro, long and hard.  Good luck to all!