Wmsptwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 All my chips are on the table for Tuesdays event. Its our best shot lol. However,.part of me fully expects this to turn into either suppression or a lakes cutter haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Off-topic: Last night when my wife got in the car to drive home, when she started it she heard something similar to that of a paper shredder, like a whirring sound. Followed by a smell in the engine of burning rubber/plastic/something. We carefully drove it to the shop this morning (a treacherous scary 11 mile drive down the Carlisle Pike) and now I'm waiting word to hear the damage. Fingers crossed, fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hope its an easy fix bud! As for next Tuesday...yuck on gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Off-topic: Last night when my wife got in the car to drive home, when she started it she heard something similar to that of a paper shredder, like a whirring sound. Followed by a smell in the engine of burning rubber/plastic/something. We carefully drove it to the shop this morning (a treacherous scary 11 mile drive down the Carlisle Pike) and now I'm waiting word to hear the damage. Fingers crossed, fellas! good luck with that! looks like some precip wanting to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hope its an easy fix bud! As for next Tuesday...yuck on gfs lol Low over the Midwest has to transfer soon enough for you guys. If it's too slow, you're stuck in the usual "middle-finger" pattern with a fast dryslot and little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lol looks like that wants to happen...warm to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You know, a few times over the past several years PSUHoffman has popped into our thread from the Mid Atlantic one. He really seems to know his stuff and does well at sniffing out chances. He has been saying that he likes the 3/1-3/10 time period for his area, I would have to assume that would apply to us LSV folks as well. I'm going with him on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=pa&prodtype=allwarnings Advisory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I have to admit...I'd say here something about "oh it's 100+ hours out and it's the GFS" but damn it...this winter, I don't know right now. I've seen solutions go bad at this point and then stay bad, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z Euro is another New England Jackpot... crushes Boston area late next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z Euro is another New England Jackpot... crushes Boston area late next week... how does the tuesday storm look for c-pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Flurries in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 how does the tuesday storm look for c-pa? slower than gfs and warmer out this way... has surface temps climbing during overnight hours tuesday into wednesday with a high of 54 at MDT Wednesday afternoon... not so sure about that... I still feel as if the models are trying to make it too warm here next week with climo pulling forecast temps higher than what they will end up. Look at today for example... earlier in the week both GFS and Euro had temps near 40 this afternoon for MDT... currently 32... GFS has the upper level low cut off from the flow and just sit north of the Great Lakes for the entire remainder of the week... Euro has that upper level feature become absorbed in what becomes another snowstorm for New England late in the week... PA looks set to finish February below normal... It will be interesting to see how national average ends up with texas well above and northeast well below normal edit: I do think out your way and the Altoona/State College cooridor will see a nice at least advisory level accumulation based on 12z track edit edit: Just looked at MOS error from 48 hours ago (so 12z run from Wednesday) and GFS MOS on was on average 5-8 degrees too warm for nearly all of PA for this afternoon at 18z/1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 slower than gfs and warmer out this way... has surface temps climbing during overnight hours tuesday into wednesday with a high of 54 at MDT Wednesday afternoon... not so sure about that... I still feel as if the models are trying to make it too warm here next week with climo pulling forecast temps higher than what they will end up. Look at today for example... earlier in the week both GFS and Euro had temps near 40 this afternoon for MDT... currently 32... GFS has the upper level low cut off from the flow and just sit north of the Great Lakes for the entire remainder of the week... Euro has that upper level feature become absorbed in what becomes another snowstorm for New England late in the week... PA looks set to finish February below normal... It will be interesting to see how national average ends up with texas well above and northeast well below normal edit: I do think out your way and the Altoona/State College cooridor will see a nice at least advisory level accumulation based on 12z track edit edit: Just looked at MOS error from 48 hours ago (so 12z run from Wednesday) and GFS MOS on was on average 5-8 degrees too warm for nearly all of PA for this afternoon at 18z/1pm It's definitely not near as good for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 slower than gfs and warmer out this way... has surface temps climbing during overnight hours tuesday into wednesday with a high of 54 at MDT Wednesday afternoon... not so sure about that... I still feel as if the models are trying to make it too warm here next week with climo pulling forecast temps higher than what they will end up. Look at today for example... earlier in the week both GFS and Euro had temps near 40 this afternoon for MDT... currently 32... GFS has the upper level low cut off from the flow and just sit north of the Great Lakes for the entire remainder of the week... Euro has that upper level feature become absorbed in what becomes another snowstorm for New England late in the week... PA looks set to finish February below normal... It will be interesting to see how national average ends up with texas well above and northeast well below normal edit: I do think out your way and the Altoona/State College cooridor will see a nice at least advisory level accumulation based on 12z track edit edit: Just looked at MOS error from 48 hours ago (so 12z run from Wednesday) and GFS MOS on was on average 5-8 degrees too warm for nearly all of PA for this afternoon at 18z/1pm It seems like the models have been struggling with temps this year. There have been numerous times this year where temps have failed to rise as much as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 i was just outside. The precip is light and its snow/sleet. the therm. at work says 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 It's definitely not near as good for up here. Yea GFS and Euro were easily rain in most of PA today. The GGEM kinda sorta has a transfer jumping the low from like central Illinois to directly over our heads and right into central NY state. The result of that drives rain all the way up into VT/NH.. I don't think that particular scenario's going to play out though. Pretty much more emphasis on the primary today, last nights runs (esp euro) popped enough of a secondary 850 low with the secondary surface low to stabilize temps supportive of snow in alot of central/western PA. No such thing there at 850 today, just the large parent low loitering west of us. We need an effective transfer or we're gonna waste a really good storm opportunity. Good thing we didn't have more precip today, cuz what did came in primarily as sleet/ZR down here. Surface temps as mentioned came up a bit short today for sure.. it hasn't gotten much above 27-28ºF and thus untreated surfaces are quite treacherous with a very thin layer of sleet encased with ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Lakes cutter on 18z gfs...yikes. lol and I cashed in all my chips too. What a weird year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Weather World basically punted the midweek storm aside. At this point, I'm thinking it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Got word about our vehicle: alternator bearing exploded, shredding part of the serpentine belt. Need new alternator and serpentine belt. Guy said we were close to cracking the block. I need a drink or ten, and you all to chip in for the Help Canderson Afford The Repair Bill 2013 fund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Got word about our vehicle: alternator bearing exploded, shredding part of the serpentine belt. Need new alternator and serpentine belt. Guy said we were close to cracking the block. I need a drink or ten, and you all to chip in for the Help Canderson Afford The Repair Bill 2013 fund. Could be worse, the block DIDN'T crack, and alternators and belts aren't terribly expensive, especially if you source the part from someone other than a dealership. What kind of car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yea dude not too terrible. Come to aroogas tmrw Ill buy you a drink lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 2005 Rav4. What Arooga's (I hate that place(s), but let me know when/where and ill see what I can do. I'm working a shift at the Garden Expo tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 2005 Rav4. What Arooga's (I hate that place(s), but let me know when/where and ill see what I can do. I'm working a shift at the Garden Expo tomorrow. Depending on the engine you should be able to get parts for under $200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 2005 Rav4. What Arooga's (I hate that place(s), but let me know when/where and ill see what I can do. I'm working a shift at the Garden Expo tomorrow. You could get the parts at a junk yard, but it may be better to get the parts at a local parts store. alternators can be had for 100- 200. belts are tricky, they could be anywhere from 15 to 300. I bought an used jeep last year and got a warrentte on it. great peice of mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Getting it all done for $550 total at Rahal. I don't think I'm getting screwed too bad, I'm not a do it yourself guy at all. They give free loaners too and we just have one car so that's a big deal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Also got my Red Sox tickets in the mail. I'm done with cold, bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Lol the one on 11 15 south of Harrisburg. Im not real familiar with Harrisburg so.me and my buddies stop in there on our way to Williams Grove. I ll let u choose the place when Im down your way...maybe we can get Sauss too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Also got my Red Sox tickets in the mail. I'm done with cold, bring on spring. Fenway will be under 4 feet of snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Lol the one on 11 15 south of Harrisburg. Im not real familiar with Harrisburg so.me and my buddies stop in there on our way to Williams Grove. I ll let u choose the place when Im down your way...maybe we can get Sauss too.That's 1 mile from me and probably 1.5 from sauss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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