Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Lol not really sure what to think with this storm looks a bit warm still. Watch euro will torch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 If you or anyone else here would like free seeds, PM me your gmail address and I can share my Google Docs seed list. I have about 180 different varieties and are willing to share many of them. And then here comes the 12Z NAM trollin' hard on us in central PA with an earlier secondary transfer. And then watch the NAM be 10 degrees warmer next run. Seriously, that model has been trash this winter. Gonna be a close one for you guys-the difference maker hopefully is UNV/AOO's elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 EURO/UKMET/Canadian vs. GFS/SREF with NAM somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Mallow isnt the SREF looking a bit better than Gfs? Nws seems pretty low key about it so I guess not good being only 36 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Mallow isnt the SREF looking a bit better than Gfs? Nws seems pretty low key about it so I guess not good being only 36 hrs out. Sure, the GFS is the worst. NAM soundings are really warm above 850mb, so I'm wondering if the same is true in the Euro/UKMET/Canadian solutions (hard to tell just from looking at the graphical output). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Gfs says no worries rain anyway. This thing just doesnt have snow look to it at all. Very disconcerting how warm NAM is above 850. Just not our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Gfs says no worries rain anyway. This thing just doesnt have snow look to it at all. Very disconcerting how warm NAM is above 850. Just not our storm. Anytime you have a closed 700/850 low west or NW of you, you have to expect non-snow, whether it's sleet or rain or both. I don't think that rule's failed in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I am not worried about the Gfs. It seems to be the warmest model this winter. If the Canadian, Ukie and euro come in way warmer than I would worried about all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Im just hoping for 1 or 2 I know there is no shot we stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Im just hoping for 1 or 2 I know there is no shot we stay all snow. I agree. The AOO-UNV-IPT corrider outside of those along the NY border are the only ones who have any shot at a thump before a flip over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Jst may have some sig icing too from what I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hearing Ukmet stayed the course at pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Both 12z NAM and GFS output have MDT with surface temps at 36-37 degrees for the duration of the event. I am wondering if the ice problems may be more widespread than current projections. If too warm aloft for snow, a number of locations may cool enough at the surface to see some ice. I really think the heavy precip rates may help the UNV/AOO area see something significant if temps can stay close to freezing... probably right along I-99... We need a clear night with clouds moving in early tomorrow morning but I am not sure if the precip will arrive early enough to keep temps from climbing just a little early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hearing Ukmet stayed the course at pretty cold. Yep. If anything, it's colder and wetter. Canadian a bit warmer, but still largely a frozen precip event at State College. GEFS still holding onto the warmth. Just waiting on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Gfs gefs will either be wrong, or score a coup. They will simply not budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 How is euro looking...fearing its warm.er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro text coming in a bit colder, keeping AOO just below freezing at 850 for the whole event and keeping UNV generally between -1 and -2ºC. 2m temps right around freezing for the most part except for wed 18z. UNV text data (order goes: date, 2m, 850, surface pressure, sfc humidity, 700 humidity, 6hr precip, 500 height, 500 thickness) WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.8 -2.6 1013 95 93 0.19 557 546 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -1.1 1007 96 92 0.29 549 543 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.3 -1.9 1002 98 100 0.25 542 540 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.3 -2.0 1001 93 91 0.31 535 534 Sure, the GFS is the worst. NAM soundings are really warm above 850mb, so I'm wondering if the same is true in the Euro/UKMET/Canadian solutions (hard to tell just from looking at the graphical output). I went back to look at last night's Euro derived skew-t's for UNV since Accuwx pro provides them. I didn't see anything poke above freezing but there was one point at hour 48 where the column generally ran the 0ºC line all the way up to 700mb with slightly below freezing temps below 800mb to approx 925mb. Definitely going to be some lackluster ratios if the ptype ends up being a decent period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 FWIW Euro has the following: UNV - just over 1" QPF with 850mb temps -1 to -2 and surface temps 32-34 IPT - just under an inch QPF with nearly similar temps AOO - nearly an inch QPF with 850 temps just below 0 and surface temps around 32-33 but then have them jump to 40 wed afternoon as precip ends... if decent snow overnight not so sure that quick of a jump if snow on the ground JST - nearly the same as AOO but QPF closer to .75" before the wed afternoon warmup edit: lol I figured I would post something the same time as someone else... usually its sauss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is ipt above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 FWIW Euro has the following: UNV - just over 1" QPF with 850mb temps -1 to -2 and surface temps 32-34 IPT - just under an inch QPF with nearly similar temps AOO - nearly an inch QPF with 850 temps just below 0 and surface temps around 32-33 but then have them jump to 40 wed afternoon as precip ends... if decent snow overnight not so sure that quick of a jump if snow on the ground JST - nearly the same as AOO but QPF closer to .75" before the wed afternoon warmup What is MDT? this morning the nam was 1" and GFS show around 3/4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 FWIW Euro has the following: UNV - just over 1" QPF with 850mb temps -1 to -2 and surface temps 32-34 IPT - just under an inch QPF with nearly similar temps AOO - nearly an inch QPF with 850 temps just below 0 and surface temps around 32-33 but then have them jump to 40 wed afternoon as precip ends... if decent snow overnight not so sure that quick of a jump if snow on the ground JST - nearly the same as AOO but QPF closer to .75" before the wed afternoon warmup edit: lol I figured I would post something the same time as someone else... usually its sauss Good news-the I-99 corridor's elevation might be a big assist here. Sometimes State College or Altoona can cash in on these marginal storms at over 1000 ft. elevation while IPT or SEG have rain or sloppy mixes. If anyone can see soundings, hopefully the warm air at 750-800mb can be held off as well as that's another danger with these primary-secondary systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What is MDT? this morning the name was 1" and GFS show around 3/4" MDT is about .8" with first half of event just above freezing and then showing warming by 12z similar to GFS... If precip rates are heavy enough it might keep temps down but might not be enough here with the strong southeasterly flow at 850mb... I still like the chances for UNV/AOO/JST and possibly even IPT for at least some snow the 12km resolution of the 12z NAM has a nice thump for our area wed night into thursday if surface temps cooperate but with our luck this will not appear again on future runs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 So, if I'm reading right, impact is primarily Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Good news-the I-99 corridor's elevation might be a big assist here. Sometimes State College or Altoona can cash in on these marginal storms at over 1000 ft. elevation while IPT or SEG have rain or sloppy mixes. If anyone can see soundings, hopefully the warm air at 750-800mb can be held off as well as that's another danger with these primary-secondary systems. I have almost everything but a sounding from Euro runs so I was wondering the same thing. Precip rates are likely going to be heavy enough that will hopefully help with cooling enough so that corridor sees more snow than slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 So, if I'm reading right, impact is primarily Wednesday? starts late tomorrow and runs overnight into the first half of wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MDT is about .8" with first half of event just above freezing and then showing warming by 12z similar to GFS... If precip rates are heavy enough it might keep temps down but might not be enough here with the strong southeasterly flow at 850mb... I still like the chances for UNV/AOO/JST and possibly even IPT for at least some snow the 12km resolution of the 12z NAM has a nice thump for our area wed night into thursday if surface temps cooperate but with our luck this will not appear again on future runs lol Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro text coming in a bit colder, keeping AOO just below freezing at 850 for the whole event and keeping UNV generally between -1 and -2ºC. 2m temps right around freezing for the most part except for wed 18z. UNV text data (order goes: date, 2m, 850, surface pressure, sfc humidity, 700 humidity, 6hr precip, 500 height, 500 thickness) WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.8 -2.6 1013 95 93 0.19 557 546 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -1.1 1007 96 92 0.29 549 543 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.3 -1.9 1002 98 100 0.25 542 540 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.3 -2.0 1001 93 91 0.31 535 534 I went back to look at last night's Euro derived skew-t's for UNV since Accuwx pro provides them. I didn't see anything poke above freezing but there was one point at hour 48 where the column generally ran the 0ºC line all the way up to 700mb with slightly below freezing temps below 800mb to approx 925mb. Definitely going to be some lackluster ratios if the ptype ends up being a decent period of snow. Good Afternoon Sir. Would you happen to share the Euro Text for KBuf Kroch? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Im at 1060 feet above airport by 500 feet hopefully that helps. Precip looks heavy though will def help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 FWIW Euro has the following: UNV - just over 1" QPF with 850mb temps -1 to -2 and surface temps 32-34 IPT - just under an inch QPF with nearly similar temps AOO - nearly an inch QPF with 850 temps just below 0 and surface temps around 32-33 but then have them jump to 40 wed afternoon as precip ends... if decent snow overnight not so sure that quick of a jump if snow on the ground JST - nearly the same as AOO but QPF closer to .75" before the wed afternoon warmup edit: lol I figured I would post something the same time as someone else... usually its sauss do you have the numbers for FIG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My experience is usually if the Laurels are going to have major freezing rain issues then AOO-UNV corridor usually has a good chance of getting a thump of snow or a lot of sleet. If JST and Somerset both don't receive that much freezing rain before flipping to rain then AOO-UNV will be slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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