MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 I guess the pattern finally gets really active. Oh, no doubt. The GFS has a nice thump of precip Saturday night. I hope we can include our LSV friends in the fun. Me too, I hate that we have that pesky low that remains in the Great Lakes and probably does just enough to bring in air aloft conducive to more of a mix/rain and makes things hinge on the development of the secondary low on the coast. However, I do think cold air damming is probably being underestimated at this point, as we will have at least some form of a high up north albeit not an ideal position as it looks. It is nice to see the precip available though, models had been southeast with that secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I will be in Altoona, PA all of next week starting Sunday afternoon. Perhaps I will experience some real winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Dare I ask...what does the ECM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Anyone been outside today? It's much, much colder than I thought. In fact it to me feels like one of the coldest days we've had all winter for some reason. I know the temp isn't that low but man it stings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Anyone been outside today? It's much, much colder than I thought. In fact it to me feels like one of the coldest days we've had all winter for some reason. I know the temp isn't that low but man it stings. It is cold. I was at 27 at 6am and am at 27 now. Forecast high was 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Dare I ask...what does the ECM show? Euro developed the heavier precip associated with the secondary storm further east than the GFS. The edge of the heavier being roughly a MDT to AVP line and southeast. And of course that far east there's thermal issues at that point. Looks like the low winds up in time to drag the cold in and crack the New England gang pretty good though. Today's take on the event this time next week seems to be more of an emphasis on the great lakes low sitting and dying while there's an attempt at secondary development but it never really deepens. The result is a moderate precip event with temps that are either really marginal for snow or warm enough for all rain depending on where one is. Really similar looking to the one going on now. We should have a more established blocking regime by the time that one rolls around so I think secondary development will be more of a significant factor than what the Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Each day adds about 2 - 4 minutes of daylight, although I never write winter off until St. Patrick's Day (Blizzard of 1993). After that, I find snow to be a nuisance and am ready for baseball, fishing and severe weather season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Lol figures Euro I HATE you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Lol figures Euro I HATE you! At least it shows something lol... has you at about .2" qpf with temps around 34-35... could easily go either way... maybe another surprise like yesterday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro developed the heavier precip associated with the secondary storm further east than the GFS. The edge of the heavier being roughly a MDT to AVP line and southeast. And of course that far east there's thermal issues at that point. Looks like the low winds up in time to drag the cold in and crack the New England gang pretty good though. Today's take on the event this time next week seems to be more of an emphasis on the great lakes low sitting and dying while there's an attempt at secondary development but it never really deepens. The result is a moderate precip event with temps that are either really marginal for snow or warm enough for all rain depending on where one is. Really similar looking to the one going on now. We should have a more established blocking regime by the time that one rolls around so I think secondary development will be more of a significant factor than what the Euro had. This is one weird winter. Each day adds about 2 - 4 minutes of daylight, although I never write winter off until St. Patrick's Day (Blizzard of 1993). After that, I find snow to be a nuisance and am ready for baseball, fishing and severe weather season! If winter ends on St. Patrick's Day I chalk that up as an early spring. That's what that stupid varmint to my west needs to realize in his prediction. Six more weeks of winter? That's St. Patrick's Day for him and me. In fact, that four-legged, orange-toothed moron has such little understanding of his own climate it's like he's an AmericanWx poster or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro has one helluva western ridge/eastern trough at 240. Takes the 0 line at 850 to just south of Mickey Mouse's backyard down in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I just want to see mdt get a solid 3 to 5 or better before winters out. We have a respectable total at ipt...but have got there the strangest way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I just want to see mdt get a solid 3 to 5 or better before winters out. We have a respectable total at ipt...but have got there the strangest way. Yeah, me too. I forget what year it was, maybe 79-80 or 80-81, we kept missing storm after storm down in York. It was awful. We finally got a 6-8" storm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 One thing lsv does well is getting into best precip on the coastals...hopefully that works out before winter is througj. One thing I missed this season is the hype of a big storm. To me thats part of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I just want to see mdt get a solid 3 to 5 or better before winters out. We have a respectable total at ipt...but have got there the strangest way. I have 14 days with measurable snow so far totalling 15.8"... 4.1" on Dec 29, 2.7" on Jan 25-26, 2.5" Dec 26, 1.9" Dec 24, 1.2" yesterday, 1" Jan 15, then .6", .5", .3", .3", .3", .2", .1", .1"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Each day adds about 2 - 4 minutes of daylight, although I never write winter off until St. Patrick's Day (Blizzard of 1993). After that, I find snow to be a nuisance and am ready for baseball, fishing and severe weather season! That blizzard 0f 93 always gives me hope for a good one even in march. I was in the Police Acadamy and when they finally let us out it took over an hour just to get from Harrisburg to York. Some exits you couldn't even get off on 83 with a 4 wheel drive and it was early in the storm. Another hour later I wouldn't of got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Anyone up to photobomb the gallery that is on the homepage of the forums with photos of our bare sidewalks/lawns? I'm tired of looking at SNE's 3' snow up there. This mostly applies to us valley kids who have zero snowcover anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.2523634&lon=-95.99798829999997&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Omaha%2C%20NE%2C%20USA some some some day again, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Anyone up to photobomb the gallery that is on the homepage of the forums with photos of our bare sidewalks/lawns? I'm tired of looking at SNE's 3' snow up there. This mostly applies to us valley kids who have zero snowcover anywhere. That would be funny, lol. Mostly bare ground here with a few patches struggling on in protected areas. 10 miles west is a different story though, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That would be funny, lol. Mostly bare ground here with a few patches struggling on in protected areas. 10 miles west is a different story though, I'm sure. In Port Matilda there's about 1-2" of crusty snow. There's also snow around Park Forest. There always seems to be snow on the ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Maybe we can get a 20th anniversary surprise up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Wow...tough to look at all of the precip. on 18z gfs and realize its rain. Strange year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Wow...tough to look at all of the precip. on 18z gfs and realize its rain. Strange year. For the storm next week it's a mix and man, it's very close. Could go either way. For this weekend, as CTP has noted in their AFD, models have had a hard time with precip types in this pattern. Going to be interesting to watch. It is quite a strange year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 For the storm next week it's a mix and man, it's very close. Could go either way. For this weekend, as CTP has noted in their AFD, models have had a hard time with precip types in this pattern. Going to be interesting to watch. It is quite a strange year. It has been an interesting winter, the discrepancy between the central regions and the southeast locations snowfall wise this year has been pretty significant as the southeast has unfortunately been on the outskirts of the futility going on just south of the border. It is sort of similar to the 97/98 winter from a snowfall distribution standpoint. It certainly wasn't from an ENSO one, as that was the year of the super nino and a very warm winter temp wise. Anyways, Harrisburg's total for that winter was 11.4"... good enough for the 3rd worst since the 80-81 winter and about 37% of the 31.2" average. State College on the other hand ripped off a 48.2" that season which was a couple inches above average. It was one of those winters that had lots of southern storms but simply no cold air to work with (but apparently just enough for UNV). I hope that theme doesn't play out the rest of this winter and the wealth gets spread around. I bring this up as more of an observation as this winter is much different and has a much better looking end game in store by the looks of the pattern but at the same time I look at our next two storms and see issues with cold air, especially for the low ground. The really notable ptype handling issues on models this winter had been generally relegated to our interior locations like AOO/UNV/IPT until our most recent event. Regardless, if we can end up developing this blocking pattern I'd be pretty confident on one of these eventual systems in this active pattern to deliver the bigger snowstorm we're all looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gfs says time to punt anything this weekend....onto next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gfs says time to punt anything this weekend....onto next week. I like what it does for the Tuesday storm. A good bit more blue than I've seen as of late with regard to ptype for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Anyone up to photobomb the gallery that is on the homepage of the forums with photos of our bare sidewalks/lawns? I'm tired of looking at SNE's 3' snow up there. This mostly applies to us valley kids who have zero snowcover anywhere. hold on now, on the north side of my garage, that the sun never see's, there is some here and there patches. looks like a cold rain Friday into Saturday down here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gfs says time to punt anything this weekend....onto next week. I like what it does for the Tuesday storm. A good bit more blue than I've seen as of late with regard to ptype for that event. Did you guys see the energy transfer and sudden crazy 850 crash on the 0Z for next week? I lol'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol I saw that. Jamie your advice was very wise on not trusting the models...they have been rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 hold on now, on the north side of my garage, that the sun never see's, there is some here and there patches. looks like a cold rain Friday into Saturday down here.. I am curious to see what happens when the warm front tries to push through tomorrow. Too often with winds projected to be southeasterly as they are the colder air has won at the surface... warming aloft and cold surface -- ice?.... or does the warm air get hung up by the mountain chain and it end up colder here than expected?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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