jm1220 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 New NAM is warmer. Rule #1-Never get suckered in by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 It doesn't seem to ever get the secondary low going. Having that 850 low progged to loiter around off to the west of us with little or no reflection to the coast is such a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 You guys still talking about snow? Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Having that 850 low progged to loiter around off to the west of us with little or no reflection to the coast is such a killer. Looks like you have a nice snowshower band heading your way, btw. The Euro is stubborn with keeping more of a snow threat here, as stubborn as the GFS has shown a rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 You guys still talking about snow? Ha! Yes, for up here - why wouldn't we be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well true you should be. Winter down here has sailed for the most part. Hell our daffodils are 6-8" out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'm moving to Cresson for snow. Any one know the totals this year for that area. Been there several times and Blue Knob. Looking at cams they are doing well today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I agree canderson...I really have feeling our goose is cooked winter wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I agree canderson...I really have feeling our goose is cooked winter wise. I don't think so. Not giving up just yet. Maybe if I lived in Virginia, I would throw in the towel, but not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'm moving to Cresson for snow. Any one know the totals this year for that area. Been there several times and Blue Knob. Looking at cams they are doing well today It seems sometimes like it never stops. I don't think so. Not giving up just yet. Maybe if I lived in Virginia, I would throw in the towel, but not here. Agree, given there are no massive warmups in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Well true you should be. Winter down here has sailed for the most part. Hell our daffodils are 6-8" out! One thing to keep in mind with daffodils is they come out sooner than people think, and your report is proof of that. We've had a colder than normal February yet daffodils are up. Even up here, they are starting to come up. Also have snowdrops up but in my yard, although in my yard for some reason they aren't among the first bloomers. I was sort of hoping we'd have a fairly dry warm period early to till the garden because my neighbor and I didn't get a chance to go out and fall till our garden, but this year it doesn't look like we will have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is it really hitting mid 50s Wednesday? That'd be marvelous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 One thing to keep in mind with daffodils is they come out sooner than people think, and your report is proof of that. We've had a colder than normal February yet daffodils are up. Even up here, they are starting to come up. Also have snowdrops up but in my yard, although in my yard for some reason they aren't among the first bloomers. I was sort of hoping we'd have a fairly dry warm period early to till the garden because my neighbor and I didn't get a chance to go out and fall till our garden, but this year it doesn't look like we will have that. It's certainly not looking like it for at least the first week or two of March. Models aren't really throwing out any big storms beyond Tuesdays event right now but certainly keep a winter pattern pretty established for the time being. I guess the good news about that is we don't look to have practically the whole month of March be 60-70ºF like last year and end up killing everything that blooms early when reality comes back in the form of a late freeze. At any rate.. I'll certainly be discussing winter and snow when needed, like Tuesday which could be bit more significant than the messy models and the afternoon disco from CTP would lead you to believe. Winter storm watches are already posted in the Apps south of the PA border for a wintry mix and specifically a freezing rain threat of up to a quarter inch. HPC's ZR probs would lead you to believe that a watch for said freezing rain could be extended north into Cambria/Somerset counties. Also pretty decent snow probs too for the central and especially north central. One of those borderline deals that could go either way being either a mainly plain rain affair or a quick thump of snow in a portion of the central counties with icing on the Laurels or perhaps something in the middle. Details with secondary development and temps are going to go down to the wire. I'm def mindful of the cooler Euro temps aloft as well.. as it seems that it has worked out the best this season when it takes that position. HPC Freezing rain probs >0.25": HPC snow probs >2": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm in Altoona this week for training. Finally going to see some winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nam is warmer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Nam is warmer again. Yeah, definitely warmer. 1-3" then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah, definitely warmer. 1-3" then rain. I may end up being wrong. But I feel the trend is for the models to overdue warmth this winter. I feel that it will be colder than the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah best to expect nothing, nam is trending slowly to gfs, which is no snow. Not a fun storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Only problem with thinking its overdoing the warmth is the low track and lack of high pressure or cold air screams torch and pretty much all rain. Secondary develops late and is weak, meanwhile stronger low meanders the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm moving to Cresson for snow. Any one know the totals this year for that area. Been there several times and Blue Knob. Looking at cams they are doing well today I have relatives who live in Cresson. You will not be dissapointed for snow. Lake effect upslope snow will be your friend. No matter what there is usually a few lake effect events every winter. Elevation will also help you in marginal setups also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Cresson is called the "Snow Globe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro is below freezing at 850 for UNV/IPT again for duration of the storm with 2m temps running close to freezing. Even AOO was mostly below with one frame where 850s crept up to +0.3ºC with similar 2m temps. Total QPF is about 0.7-0.8". That little central wedge that includes the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor and especially the northcentral region west of IPT is going to be a rough forecast with the marginal temp profiles. For instance the regular 0z NAM precip types were a brief mix to rain for in this corridor but the high res 4km NAM snow map somehow weenied this event into a widespread warning snow. I suspect that is probably overdone but 21z SREFs continue to be supportive of some potential snowfall, 14 SREF plume members have snowfall that range from just under 2 inches to around 8 inches at AOO for example. CTP does have map products out now.. 1-2 for AOO/UNV/IPT, 2-3 in the north central. Their ice map has the NW 2/3s of the CWA in 0.01-0.10 with Laurels in 0.1-0.25". Pretty safe and conservative call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Mag any chance that the EURO is right? Gfs and nam are back onto the transfer but it doesnt help much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro is below freezing at 850 for UNV/IPT again for duration of the storm with 2m temps running close to freezing. Even AOO was mostly below with one frame where 850s crept up to +0.3ºC with similar 2m temps. Total QPF is about 0.7-0.8". That little central wedge that includes the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor and especially the northcentral region west of IPT is going to be a rough forecast with the marginal temp profiles. For instance the regular 0z NAM precip types were a brief mix to rain for in this corridor but the high res 4km NAM snow map somehow weenied this event into a widespread warning snow. I suspect that is probably overdone but 21z SREFs continue to be supportive of some potential snowfall, 14 SREF plume members have snowfall that range from just under 2 inches to around 8 inches at AOO for example. CTP does have map products out now.. 1-2 for AOO/UNV/IPT, 2-3 in the north central. Their ice map has the NW 2/3s of the CWA in 0.01-0.10 with Laurels in 0.1-0.25". Pretty safe and conservative call at this point. Mag any chance that the EURO is right? Gfs and nam are back onto the transfer but it doesnt help much. I am starting to wonder if it is but then again, not a lot of support from the other models right now. One thing all the models agree on - forget about any spring weather for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I am starting to wonder if it is but then again, not a lot of support from the other models right now. One thing all the models agree on - forget about any spring weather for quite a while. Yeah, and its a double edge sword for me, i love snow, but wanna get on the field ya know! geez, the nam wants to give mdt over 1" qbf and the gfs was around .75"... another cold rainy day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yea I am with you sauss....plus these 38 degree rainstorms dont help the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah, and its a double edge sword for me, i love snow, but wanna get on the field ya know! geez, the nam wants to give mdt over 1" qbf and the gfs was around .75"... another cold rainy day.. I can't play anymore due to my knee issue so my game is gardening now, and yeah, I am a bit of the same. Want to get out on the field. Of course I am limited by our climate. But, a sign of spring is my indoor planting starts this weekend with the 10 weeks before last frost stuff, like leeks, onions, pansies, etc. Then two weekends later the big indoor planting, tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, brussels sprouts, ground cherries, certain annuals, etc. Sort of a cool thing that only a weather/garden geek would find enjoyable - fair amount of time since I've started gardening I've been planting my stuff in our sun room while snow falls outside. Sort of a cool contrast. One thing I am pulling for is a normal progression into spring and not last year. No lilacs, fruit trees got screwed, etc due to the summer in March then cold snap in April. One final thing, my weather obsession shifts to tracking rain. Hell man in the summer I am almost embarrassed at the amount of time and focus I will spend tracking garden variety t-storms on radar hoping my garden gets rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I can't play anymore due to my knee issue so my game is gardening now, and yeah, I am a bit of the same. Want to get out on the field. Of course I am limited by our climate. But, a sign of spring is my indoor planting starts this weekend with the 10 weeks before last frost stuff, like leeks, onions, pansies, etc. Then two weekends later the big indoor planting, tomatoes, peppers, eggplants, brussels sprouts, ground cherries, certain annuals, etc. Sort of a cool thing that only a weather/garden geek would find enjoyable - fair amount of time since I've started gardening I've been planting my stuff in our sun room while snow falls outside. Sort of a cool contrast. One thing I am pulling for is a normal progression into spring and not last year. No lilacs, fruit trees got screwed, etc due to the summer in March then cold snap in April. One final thing, my weather obsession shifts to tracking rain. Hell man in the summer I am almost embarrassed at the amount of time and focus I will spend tracking garden variety t-storms on radar hoping my garden gets rain. I don't play any more either, just coach, but i have never lost the passion. i still feel like a little kid in the spring can't wait to lace up my cleats and get on the field.. Last year was our 1st year with a garden, so i understand tracking the rain and storms. Our starter garden was only 20-x 20 and that is getting at least doubled this year. we really enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I am starting to wonder if it is but then again, not a lot of support from the other models right now. One thing all the models agree on - forget about any spring weather for quite a while. FWIW, the Euro was a little too cold here with the 2/8 blizzard and in general, the slightly warmer consensus of models were more correct. The dynamics here on the coast are much different than they are along I-99 however. Tough call for sure for many of you guys-I could see it being a lot of thumping snow if it comes in heavy enough and low enough wetbulbs are out there. The low is occluding so there isn't as much WAA as you would think, but the not great initial airmass could be a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I don't play any more either, just coach, but i have never lost the passion. i still feel like a little kid in the spring can't wait to lace up my cleats and get on the field.. Last year was our 1st year with a garden, so i understand tracking the rain and storms. Our starter garden was only 20-x 20 and that is getting at least doubled this year. we really enjoyed it. If you or anyone else here would like free seeds, PM me your gmail address and I can share my Google Docs seed list. I have about 180 different varieties and are willing to share many of them. FWIW, the Euro was a little too cold here with the 2/8 blizzard and in general, the slightly warmer consensus of models were more correct. The dynamics here on the coast are much different than they are along I-99 however. Tough call for sure for many of you guys-I could see it being a lot of thumping snow if it comes in heavy enough and low enough wetbulbs are out there. The low is occluding so there isn't as much WAA as you would think, but the not great initial airmass could be a killer. And then here comes the 12Z NAM trollin' hard on us in central PA with an earlier secondary transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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