djr5001 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 do you have the numbers for FIG? about an inch QPF with 850 temps all below 0... surface temps 32-34... I have not seen euro temps for other than surface and 850 so curious to see how 850-700mb temps are... Both NAM and GFS have a warming layer there due to the strong south easterly jet around 850mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Does anyone have anything for AVP? I am at work and don't have time to look. TIA!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 about an inch QPF with 850 temps all below 0... surface temps 32-34... I have not seen euro temps for other than surface and 850 so curious to see how 850-700mb temps are... Both NAM and GFS have a warming layer there due to the strong south easterly jet around 850mb... thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Henry is a little bullish!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM appears a little colder, not meaning much itself but positive in that it's headed toward the colder guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Henry is a little bullish!! Seems like he's hugging the Euro, looks like it's giving us low level warning amounts taken literally. I feel like this is gonna be the kind of storm where those of us in the valleys will get a slushy couple of inches and the ridge tops have 6" or maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 West Texas is in a blizzard warning and has seen crazy winds. My buddy sent me this photo from this morning, he is in Midland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 West Texas is in a blizzard warning and has seen crazy winds. My buddy sent me this photo from this morning, he is in Midland. That's funny. Guess that's why they are called tumbleweeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Henry is a little bullish!! Lol. I certainly buy the potential that there are more flakes than advertised for this...but the sketchy surface temps/time of day with the first part of the storm and aforementioned column being marginal is probably going to render this a < 10:1 event as it is for the most part. He must be basing that heavily on the 4km high res NAM which prints out an insane amount of snow and i'm not really sure how it A. cranks out as much QPF as it does and B. Puts out as much snowfall as it does considering it's ptype product suggest more of a mix and the reflectivity product doesn't really seem to support the widespread 1-1.5" of precip it cranks out. The ridges are likely getting overestimated with its 3" QPF stripe over places like the Allegheny front and even the Seven Mountains ridges. I'll play along with AOO/UNV (especially on the ridges) maybe seeing advisory amounts in the best scenario.. but I can't jump on board with that widespread of a 6-12 or even 3-6 zone for that matter. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html about an inch QPF with 850 temps all below 0... surface temps 32-34... I have not seen euro temps for other than surface and 850 so curious to see how 850-700mb temps are... Both NAM and GFS have a warming layer there due to the strong south easterly jet around 850mb... Here is the Euro derived skew-t for Hour 36 at UNV. This is as warm as it gets above 800mb before that region of the column starts cooling off.. right on the 0ºC line but seems to just barely support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 West Texas is in a blizzard warning and has seen crazy winds. My buddy sent me this photo from this morning, he is in Midland. Tumbleweed accumulations of 4-6 ft. per hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Lol. I certainly buy the potential that there are more flakes than advertised for this...but the sketchy surface temps/time of day with the first part of the storm and aforementioned column being marginal is probably going to render this a < 10:1 event as it is for the most part. He must be basing that heavily on the 4km high res NAM which prints out an insane amount of snow and i'm not really sure how it A. cranks out as much QPF as it does and B. Puts out as much snowfall as it does considering it's ptype product suggest more of a mix and the reflectivity product doesn't really seem to support the widespread 1-1.5" of precip it cranks out. The ridges are likely getting overestimated with its 3" QPF stripe over places like the Allegheny front and even the Seven Mountains ridges. I'll play along with AOO/UNV (especially on the ridges) maybe seeing advisory amounts in the best scenario.. but I can't jump on board with that widespread of a 6-12 or even 3-6 zone for that matter. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Here is the Euro derived skew-t for Hour 36 at UNV. This is as warm as it gets above 800mb before that region of the column starts cooling off.. right on the 0ºC line but seems to just barely support snow. ecmwfued---conus-36-A-1361823268934.png The NAM had about 6 feet of snow falling over N NJ right before the 2/8 blizzard where they ended up with maybe 6-8" averaged out. That model is such a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tumbleweed accumulations of 4-6 ft. per hour? Drifts up to 10 feet? BECTWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Im fully expecting all rain or a burst of sleet to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Gfs coup incoming...book it.Looks most realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The Nam is trending colder toward the Euro. I am punting the Gfs. It struggles to handle CAD scenarios all the time. It failed miserably on the Dec 26 storm. I think UNV will see 2 to 3 inches with sleet. Higher ridges should get 4 or 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I say Gfs is right...with the no secondary idea..but who knows. First Guess: Ipt: trace unv: 1 or 2 aoo: around an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Calling JamieOber...^ Nice to see the ECM hang on to the cooler solution. I like having it in my corner. NAM...WGaF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Lol I am not complaining its an honest guess.I dont see any totals higher than 4 inches outside of higher elevations. Gfs has been consistent...so has euro...one will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 And why take the GFS over the ECM at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Its done fairly well...jm said it handled the huge nor easter best. I do think unv has a shot at advisory snows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Its done fairly well...jm said it handled the huge nor easter best. I do think unv has a shot at advisory snows though. Who knows but I like our chances more than if the roles were reversed. Is the GFS totally on its own, does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Good point Jamie...they should all trend one way or another this evening. If all goes well advisory snows are likely for parts of centre, clearfield and blair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Srefs are gfs like and gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Its done fairly well...jm said it handled the huge nor easter best. I do think unv has a shot at advisory snows though. But... it didn't. Even up through like 36 hours the GFS still had it way too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 802 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 PAZ004-010-017>019-045-046-261115- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.130226T1800Z-130227T1200Z/ WARREN-ELK-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE- SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...DUBOIS... CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...LOCK HAVEN... WILLIAMSPORT 802 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY MINOR ICE ACCRETIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...A SLUSHY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. A THIN LAYER OF ICE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE RIDGES * TIMING...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND LAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY TURN TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME AS WELL. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * WINDS...EAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 802 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 PAZ005-006-011-012-037-041-042-261115- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0003.130226T2000Z-130227T1800Z/ MCKEAN-POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...EMPORIUM... RENOVO...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE 802 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET WILL START IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION MAY TURN TO RAIN AT TIMES...AND COULD FREEZE AS IT FALLS ON TO COLD OBJECTS...OR EVEN MELT THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN. * IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW AND ICE COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...STARTING IN THE UPPER 30S...BUT COOLING TO THE IN THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks about right maybe less for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Map is exactly whatvI am thinking. Srefs dont budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Map is exactly whatvI am thinking. Srefs dont budge. Joe Bastardi is saying 4"-8" w/ 12" in mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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