JamieOber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol I saw that. Jamie your advice was very wise on not trusting the models...they have been rough. I expect anything from snow to a locust plague this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Haha thats the range they give now. The lolnam changed its mind again and keeps us dry in part 2 of storm. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I expect anything from snow to a locust plague this weekend. well at least NWS State College is thinking along the same lines as you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 well at least NWS State College is thinking along the same lines as you.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I am curious to see what happens when the warm front tries to push through tomorrow. Too often with winds projected to be southeasterly as they are the colder air has won at the surface... warming aloft and cold surface -- ice?.... or does the warm air get hung up by the mountain chain and it end up colder here than expected?... It probably wouldn't take much would it to have a little surprise like we did the other day? I think when i looked this morning, the GFS and the NAM had the temp in the mid to high 30's when the precip moves in. Yesterday we didn't make it into the 30's and it appears we won't today either. nam had almost .50" for mdt it would be nice to get a lil something! Edit- with the sun out now, we may get over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 well at least NWS State College is thinking along the same lines as you.... I lol'd....nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 locations in Kansas/Nebraska/etc are approaching some of our winter totals with this one storm... http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic/Default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 TWC, in all its genius creativity, brings us the name Winter Storm... Q. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 TWC, in all its genius creativity, brings us the name Winter Storm... Q. Finally, a perfect name for a winter storm, at least for us. Annoying as hell, and full of mean tricks (all you Star Trek Next Gen fans know what I am saying). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013PAZ004-005-010-011-017>019-026-027-221215-/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.130222T1600Z-130223T1500Z/WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AMEST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.* HAZARD TYPES...WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL START AROUND NOON FRIDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. USE CAUTIONWHILE TRAVELING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. FOR THELATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATE COLLEGE ORSTAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESTATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET@NWSSTATECOLLGE AND USE THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Q? moar like "ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ" amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 TWC, in all its genius creativity, brings us the name Winter Storm... Q. Q: The Broadway Express subway line in New York City. This was on their info about the origins of the name "Q" haha, though this storm is hardly taking any kind of an express route across the US. The early next week storm that could have a better impact on PA probably gets the R name... Rocky. Time to "Q" up Eye of the Tiger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Q? moar like "ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ" amirite? Don't give the Weather Channel any ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This was on their info about the origins of the name "Q" haha, though this storm is hardly taking any kind of an express route across the US. The early next week storm that could have a better impact on PA probably gets the R name... Rocky. Time to "Q" up Eye of the Tiger. Great. Instead of a Rocky I type storm we'll end up with something closer to Rocky IV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This was on their info about the origins of the name "Q" haha, though this storm is hardly taking any kind of an express route across the US. The early next week storm that could have a better impact on PA probably gets the R name... Rocky. Time to "Q" up Eye of the Tiger. Ive been saying all winter that Philly will get a big storm when it is time for R lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 I will be in Altoona, PA all of next week starting Sunday afternoon. Perhaps I will experience some real winter!! Dang what brings you to Altoona for the whole week? And if there isn't enough real winter down here in the valley next week, I'm sure there will be plenty just a short drive away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow they are getting hit in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow they are getting hit in the Midwest. The sick part is some of these folks are going to get wacked by the next system early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol we are the kings of 4 hour snowfalls in all of cpa! We have that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The sick part is some of these folks are going to get wacked by the next system early next week. From what I understand they are kind of in a drought out there. So the snow should help them out. Would be tough getting two 20" snowstorms in a weeks time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 From what I understand they are kind of in a drought out there. So the snow should help them out. Would be tough getting two 20" snowstorms in a weeks time. Yea they certainly will benefit from this kind of storm pattern, most of the central and southwest states have been in a long term "severe" to "exceptional" drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 The 12z Euro had quite the event for interior central PA for early next week. Temps were marginal at times but it had the look of a heavy wet interior and/or elevational snow event as we have secondary formation that moves over DC. The low actually ends up closing off in eastern PA so I think they would eventually transition to some snow as well. The Euros secondary formation is actually quite far west, just barely east of the Apps as it moves thru central VA to DC and into SE PA. I'd imagine this probably ends up being running more along the coastline in this setup but we'll see. Euro is a lot slower than the GFS is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 The 12z Euro had quite the event for interior central PA for early next week. Temps were marginal at times but it had the look of a heavy wet interior and/or elevational snow event as we have secondary formation that moves over DC. The low actually ends up closing off in eastern PA so I think they would eventually transition to some snow as well. The Euros secondary formation is actually quite far west, just barely east of the Apps as it moves thru central VA to DC and into SE PA. I'd imagine this probably ends up being running more along the coastline in this setup but we'll see. Euro is a lot slower than the GFS is. I was wondering about it getting closer to the coast as storms don't usually run that close to the Apps. Good lord on that trough afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I have a good feeling about early week event so prbly wont happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 0Z suites say virtually no precip falls in LSV BEFORE 0Z tomorrow night. GFS much more aggressive with pushing rain up into our area during the day Sat than the NAM. Meanwhile, next Tuesday is continuing to look like our first Warning Criteria event of the season down here. That -10 isotherm at 850 just keeps swirling around us for days and days after next Tuesday's storm. What say you, Mag? Or Matt? or Jeff? for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 0Z suites say virtually no precip falls in LSV BEFORE 0Z tomorrow night. GFS much more aggressive with pushing rain up into our area during the day Sat than the NAM. Meanwhile, next Tuesday is continuing to look like our first Warning Criteria event of the season down here. That -10 isotherm at 850 just keeps swirling around us for days and days after next Tuesday's storm. What say you, Mag? Or Matt? or Jeff? for that matter. Models are in great overall agreement with this system right now with the 0z GFS/GEFS, Euro, and GGEM all having the same general scheme with this potent system coming up from the southwest and redeveloping on or near the Mid-Atl Coast before closing off with the leftovers sitting over the region. If the more obscure models are your thing the NOGAPs, DGEX, JMA, and UKMET are all in fair overall agreement with the major models. In terms of expecting a pretty significant system Tues/Wed.. I have pretty high confidence of that happening. This won't be the dying system on arrival like the one set to affect us later today is. Where confidence quickly goes by the wayside is of course what type of precip to expect. The interior central portions of PA look to be the most heavily favored for a perhaps significant dump of wet snowfall with western PA and any other portion of PA above I-80 generally in the game for a good snowfall as well. Should be noted that tonight's Euro looked bit colder aloft tonight than it was at 12z. MDT's text data was painstakingly close to being a snow dump... with the two 6 hour frames with all the precip (totalling 0.76") having 0.4ºC and 0.1ºC respectively at 850mb with surface temps in the mid 30s. 850 temps nose above freezing roughly for the portion of PA east of MDT and south of I-78 as the weak secondary 850 low moves up into southeast PA. The GFS is very similar thermally... however it's secondary surface low development is more on the coast than the Euro's. That southeastern 1/4 of PA is going to be a tough call. The whole system pretty much is in the process of closing off right overhead or nearby and as modeled by the major models... looks to sit and die over the NE/Great Lakes region the rest of the week. The most cyclonic flow is likely to keep upslope snows going in the high ground of PA (especially the Laurels) and perhaps scattered bouts of snowfall over the rest of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Mag thanks for the storm update for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Yea they certainly will benefit from this kind of storm pattern, most of the central and southwest states have been in a long term "severe" to "exceptional" drought. i saw a farmer they interviewed last evening, speaking of the draught and how the snow was welcome! i didn't realize how bad off they have been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 These two maps should help give you an idea of how little rain a large portion of central and western US has seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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