Central PA - Second Half of February 2013

[Rick G]

Whats up with Tuesday of next week?

 

On wnep's long range forcast, they have snow.

[2001kx]

just had a nice band come through that put down fresh 1/4" of snow.

[pawatch]

Whats up with Tuesday of next week?

 

On wnep's long range forcast, they have snow.

I'm thinking this is what they are talking about.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06168.gif

[pawatch]

It was 24 here in Bellefonte around 5am, while it was 32 at unv I believe. Had a nasty 3.5hr drive from Bellefonte to Towanda this morning in sleet, snow, and occasional freezing rain. The variations in snowfall were interesting on the drive back this afternoon. Not much of anything from Towanda to Canton, then an inch or so on the ground. Next to nothing south of Lock Haven, and nothing at my office two miles south of Bellefonte, but a solid inch still in shaded areas around downtown. Highest amounts I saw were in northern and central Lycoming County...solid 3-4" in Ralston and Marsh Hill.

Penn you go up and cut across route 6? I worked up in Towanda the other winter. Sometimes would go up 87 and over to Dushore. Or route 220

[JamieOber]

just had a nice band come through that put down fresh 1/4" of snow.

We got about 3/4" at some point tonight. Was surprised when I went out to walk the dog.

 

I'm thinking this is what they are talking about.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06168.gif

There's been chatter about late Feb/early March being a pretty good period for a storm. I guess things might line up better. We'll see.

[NortheastPAWx]

We'll get this right one of these days...

[MAG5035]

We got about 3/4" at some point tonight. Was surprised when I went out to walk the dog.

 

There's been chatter about late Feb/early March being a pretty good period for a storm. I guess things might line up better. We'll see.

 

In terms of the potential of scoring a decent coastal or two It appears that we may see the best overall setup of the winter try to establish itself as we not only finally have a -NAO that looks to develop, but perhaps coninciding with a rather strong +PNA regime. The MJO forecast has been sort of disagreeing with this, but i've noticed instead of pinwheeling thru the torch phases (5-6) , most guidance tends to send the signal into the circle in several days. The signal has had a tendancy to be "noisy" this season more than being a true MJO signal though. There has been alot of good in depth disco about that and the other aspects of the pattern in the Philly medium range thread about this time period.. which I'm sure you've seen.

 

If we can get blocking from both the -NAO and solid +PNA to develop full bore, it is likely to render the aforementioned 8-14 day outlook with the above average temps in the NE in trouble and perhaps take a normal to below avg temp regime right thru the first or second week of March...pretty much like what the long range GFS has been showing. Even if the magnitude of any blocking ends up not being as strong,  the pattern still will look very "blocky" with plenty of opportunities for storms. But my concern would be what cold air would be available for these systems. I feel like we might need the +PNA more than the -NAO from a cold air standpoint, as a flatter Pac pattern could introduce milder air of a Pacific origin. Hence, we may have the storms but stale cold which could hurt the warmer parts of our region as we are getting near the time of year where marginal cold isn't going to cut it. That's just a speculation though, as it looks currently... I think we all still have a good shot of pulling off something decent in the next couple weeks.

[PennMan]

Penn you go up and cut across route 6? I worked up in Towanda the other winter. Sometimes would go up 87 and over to Dushore. Or route 220

I usually run up 15 to 14 and then 414. I try to avoid 220 across Sullivan County, especially if the weather is poor.

[pawatch]

I usually run up 15 to 14 and then 414. I try to avoid 220 across Sullivan County, especially if the weather is poor.

After I posted that, I realized it was 414 we come across. In this winter weather 414 could be fun to drive.

It sure seemed like it was a cold winter up there.

[sauss06]

Apple country

 

Probably 194, or 234. 

 

 

You're good. That is the intersection of the two in the small town of Hampton. Keep heading west on 234 and that will take you to Biglerville

I did some work on the Fire Protection equipment  at the Apple plants, Knause Foods (sp). years ago. Very neat to see that operation. I always liked that area out that way, Biglerville, Ardntesville etc...i haven't been in years, but the Apple Festival was always cool with good eats.

Gettysburg College was on my daughters short list, but i think she backed off.

[Wmsptwx]

Wow...what a waste of a storm this weekend

[sauss06]

Wow...what a waste of a storm this weekend

i am no expert, but looks like it starts as snow on the nam, temps high 20's, maybe 1/2" or so, then when most of the qbf comes in, its to warm. GFS looks to warm all together and less qbf then the nam.

 

edit- looks like mdt drops into the teens Thursday and Friday isn't looking real warm either.

[Wmsptwx]

Yeah...sounds about right. Not sure what can cool it down either...just not a cold airmass.

[Jmister]

Has anybody seen this p-type before? ZLSG? Looks like SG is snow grains (graupel?) I've just never seen this code.

 

 

130222/2200Z  64  14009KT  30.1F  SNOW   11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003   11:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0130222/2300Z  65  15010KT  29.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0130223/0000Z  66  14011KT  28.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130223/0100Z  67  14011KT  28.3F  ZLSG    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.02    0| 16| 84130223/0200Z  68  15012KT  28.1F  ZLSG    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.007    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.03    0| 21| 79130223/0300Z  69  15011KT  27.8F  ZLSG    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.005    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.03    0| 12| 88130223/0400Z  70  15011KT  27.4F  SNPL    3:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.04   67| 33|  0130223/0500Z  71  14011KT  27.2F  SNPL    4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    6:1|  0.1|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.04   67| 33|  0130223/0600Z  72  14011KT  27.2F  SNPL    3:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    5:1|  0.1|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.05   65| 35|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130223/0700Z  73  14011KT  27.2F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    5:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.03|| 0.05   59| 41|  0130223/0800Z  74  14010KT  27.2F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    4:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.03|| 0.06   66| 34|  0130223/0900Z  75  14010KT  27.4F  SNPL    4:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   76| 24|  0130223/1000Z  76  13009KT  27.4F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    2:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   55| 45|  0130223/1100Z  77  13008KT  27.8F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.007    2:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01   53| 47|  0130223/1200Z  78  13008KT  28.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    5:1|  0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130223/1300Z  79  12007KT  28.7F  SNPL    7:1| 0.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.069    6:1|  0.7|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.11   68| 32|  0130223/1400Z  80  12009KT  29.9F  SNPL    7:1| 0.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.044    6:1|  1.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.15   51| 49|  0130223/1500Z  81  13007KT  31.0F  SNOW   11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    8:1|  1.8|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0130223/1600Z  82  12008KT  32.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077    8:1|  1.8|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.30   50|  7| 43130223/1700Z  83  12007KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081    8:1|  1.8|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.38    0|  0|100130223/1800Z  84  10006KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.103    8:1|  1.8|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.48    0|  0|100============================================================================================================================

[JamieOber]

In terms of the potential of scoring a decent coastal or two It appears that we may see the best overall setup of the winter try to establish itself as we not only finally have a -NAO that looks to develop, but perhaps coninciding with a rather strong +PNA regime. The MJO forecast has been sort of disagreeing with this, but i've noticed instead of pinwheeling thru the torch phases (5-6) , most guidance tends to send the signal into the circle in several days. The signal has had a tendancy to be "noisy" this season more than being a true MJO signal though. There has been alot of good in depth disco about that and the other aspects of the pattern in the Philly medium range thread about this time period.. which I'm sure you've seen.

 

If we can get blocking from both the -NAO and solid +PNA to develop full bore, it is likely to render the aforementioned 8-14 day outlook with the above average temps in the NE in trouble and perhaps take a normal to below avg temp regime right thru the first or second week of March...pretty much like what the long range GFS has been showing. Even if the magnitude of any blocking ends up not being as strong,  the pattern still will look very "blocky" with plenty of opportunities for storms. But my concern would be what cold air would be available for these systems. I feel like we might need the +PNA more than the -NAO from a cold air standpoint, as a flatter Pac pattern could introduce milder air of a Pacific origin. Hence, we may have the storms but stale cold which could hurt the warmer parts of our region as we are getting near the time of year where marginal cold isn't going to cut it. That's just a speculation though, as it looks currently... I think we all still have a good shot of pulling off something decent in the next couple weeks.

The storm around 3/1 is on the models, but different solutions. Euro out to sea, GFS borderline here, etc. 

 

There's some question about the +PNA. Euro ensembles don't have it. 

 

Not sure what to think. Our trend over the last month is to have storms fade as they get here. 

[JamieOber]

 

That cam has that scene so often I half expect to see it in July. 

[Wmsptwx]

Mag is there any chance cold air gets in here for the wkend event. Im having a tough time punting so much precip lol.

[JamieOber]

Mag is there any chance cold air gets in here for the wkend event. Im having a tough time punting so much precip lol.

Euro gave you .22 of all snow over like a day and a half and crushes the Southeast US. There's that scenario looming. 

 

Wonder if there's a Goldilocks zone for us with this thing? 

[Wmsptwx]

Dang thought euro.would have more low right along the coast in the maps.

[JamieOber]

Dang thought euro.would have more low right along the coast in the maps.

I saw that the Euro "control" model had a big east coast storm. That's the new version they are currently testing. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

I did some work on the Fire Protection equipment  at the Apple plants, Knause Foods (sp). years ago. Very neat to see that operation. I always liked that area out that way, Biglerville, Ardntesville etc...i haven't been in years, but the Apple Festival was always cool with good eats.

Gettysburg College was on my daughters short list, but i think she backed off.

growing up i lived on the trucking route between the Orrtanna and Biglerville plants.  we were around 300ft off the road which helped but there still were lots of trucks that passed by.  what a difference moving to Cashtown made. 

[djr5001]

In terms of the potential of scoring a decent coastal or two It appears that we may see the best overall setup of the winter try to establish itself as we not only finally have a -NAO that looks to develop, but perhaps coninciding with a rather strong +PNA regime. The MJO forecast has been sort of disagreeing with this, but i've noticed instead of pinwheeling thru the torch phases (5-6) , most guidance tends to send the signal into the circle in several days. The signal has had a tendancy to be "noisy" this season more than being a true MJO signal though. There has been alot of good in depth disco about that and the other aspects of the pattern in the Philly medium range thread about this time period.. which I'm sure you've seen.

 

If we can get blocking from both the -NAO and solid +PNA to develop full bore, it is likely to render the aforementioned 8-14 day outlook with the above average temps in the NE in trouble and perhaps take a normal to below avg temp regime right thru the first or second week of March...pretty much like what the long range GFS has been showing. Even if the magnitude of any blocking ends up not being as strong,  the pattern still will look very "blocky" with plenty of opportunities for storms. But my concern would be what cold air would be available for these systems. I feel like we might need the +PNA more than the -NAO from a cold air standpoint, as a flatter Pac pattern could introduce milder air of a Pacific origin. Hence, we may have the storms but stale cold which could hurt the warmer parts of our region as we are getting near the time of year where marginal cold isn't going to cut it. That's just a speculation though, as it looks currently... I think we all still have a good shot of pulling off something decent in the next couple weeks.

 

In the general medium range discussion thread there is mention of analog years of 1960 and 1965 based on teleconnections for March.  Those two years are before the current climate period of 1981-2010 but both were below normal cold and above normal snowy for our area.  For Harrisburg, March 1960 averaged -12.3 degrees below normal for the first 26 days before a quick warmup to end the month pulled the average up to -8.8 degrees.  22.6" of snow was reported in March 1960 and 15.1" in 1965 in Harrisburg.  Would be interesting if can get all of the pieces to fall in place and take advantage of the blocking potential.  Last winter started with snow in October so maybe we can end this one with our best snow coming in March lol.

[JamieOber]

Damn is the weekend storm ever going to be close here as far as precip type. 

[djr5001]

Damn is the weekend storm ever going to be close here as far as precip type. 

 

IMO the GFS looks to be underestimating the cold air damming potential which could make a huge difference in what occurs for some on Sat-Sun.  Timing again could play a major role.  Like yesterday, clouds moving in early morning at time peak minimum temps are occuring would be ideal.  0z extended MOS for MDT has a high of 44 on Saturday which I believe is too high right now

[JamieOber]

IMO the GFS looks to be underestimating the cold air damming potential which could make a huge difference in what occurs for some on Sat-Sun.  Timing again could play a major role.  Like yesterday, clouds moving in early morning at time peak minimum temps are occuring would be ideal.  0z extended MOS for MDT has a high of 44 on Saturday which I believe is too high right now

Agreed. Another factor is heavy rates, which it is showing. 

 

Then comes it's twin middle of next week. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Agreed. Another factor is heavy rates, which it is showing.

Then comes it's twin middle of next week.

And we should end up with at least one more behind that one.

[MAG5035]

Damn is the weekend storm ever going to be close here as far as precip type. 

 

I'll take our chances in our neck of the woods. 

[JamieOber]

And we should end up with at least one more behind that one.

I guess the pattern finally gets really active.

 

I'll take our chances in our neck of the woods. 

Oh, no doubt. The GFS has a nice thump of precip Saturday night. I hope we can include our LSV friends in the fun. 

[sauss06]

I'll take our chances in our neck of the woods. 

i bet you will.

[Cashtown_Coop]

I guess the pattern finally gets really active.

 

Oh, no doubt. The GFS has a nice thump of precip Saturday night. I hope we can include our LSV friends in the fun. 

That's the spirit!