jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs has close to a foot of snow for NYC Valentine's day !!! Happy Birthday to me!! I predict a NW NJ jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleeting again in Lynbrook at 30.7 degrees. Are the chances still there for us getting under any of those 2-3 inch an hour bands? Or, will this be East of us in Suffolk. When the 12-20 inch totals are given, they can't be talking about Southern and Western Nassau County, right? in lynbrook you have almost no chance at anything near 20", be happy with half of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Rain to snow transitions are always nowcast specials. only the S portion nassau is really having issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That looks far more exciting than this one and much less complex. Agree. MJO will be in phase 2 by that time which is ideal tropical forcing for mid atlantic snow potential at this time of year. This one has the look of a widespread DCA-BOS SECS chance to me. Not selling this storm short though. Most in the NYC metro should hit high end SECS values to MECS out on LI (8-16"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 in lynbrook you have almost no chance at anything near 20", be happy with half of that Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Agree. MJO will be in phase 2 by that time which is ideal tropical forcing for mid atlantic snow potential at this time of year. This one has the look of a widespread DCA-BOS SECS chance to me. Not selling this storm short though. Most in the NYC metro should hit high end SECS values to MECS out on LI (8-16"). The cold air source looks pretty putrid though with no high to the north, at least there is not going to be a primary low to deal with though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 only the S portion nassau is really having issues I am north of the Southern State with a Valentine's Day 2007 sleet redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wish PT/WXOUTLOOKS would post his thoughts. He seems to be very knowledgable. I don't think he would still call for 16-20 inches now but perhaps 10-12 inches might be possible. Perhaps he will chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The cold air source looks pretty putrid though with no high to the north, at least there is not going to be a primary low to deal with though Eh, mid February with an intensifying sfc low moving 200 miles SE of us will probably be sufficient given the marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyone know when that band over in PA will form together with the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bands in PA building east (finally). Hope is on its way for us C-joisey folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eh, mid February with an intensifying sfc low moving 200 miles SE of us will probably be sufficient given the marginal airmass. There's a departing low pressure before the 2.14 storm that ushers in some colder air to the region. With low SSTs and snow cover across much of the region, I don't think temperatures will get too warm for this threat given the 18z GFS track of the low. The area should see 2-3 moderate to major snowfalls in February given the favorable tropical forcing pattern as well as the development of more of a -NAO. I also think Long Island can still score big...the 12z ECM had 1.25" QPF tonight for NYC with more out east. Even if they don't have anything yet, 1.5" QPF as snow is a 15-20" snowstorm. The fun may just be starting as the band intensifies in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bands in PA building east (finally). Hope is on its way for us C-joisey folks. Is that where we get our heaviest snows? Sorry I don't really know much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 THUNDERSNOW....just had thunder and lightning and now getting destroyed. The band before was sleet, but it's just dumping now. Lightning actually knocked out power for a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is that where we get our heaviest snows? Sorry I don't really know much lol It'll have to be once the pivot occurs and links with the mains bands. Lets see what we can squeeze out. Virtually all of NJ went to a lull or very light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It'll have to be once the pivot occurs and links with the mains bands. Lets see what we can squeeze out. Virtually all of NJ went to a lull or very light snow. Thank you. Do you have an estimated time to it's arrival? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 THUNDERSNOW....just had thunder and lightning and now getting destroyed. The band before was sleet, but it's just dumping now. Lightning actually knocked out power for a sec. ..i can confirm that..about 10 min. ago here in eastport.. ..the battle STILL going on..hvy snow to sleet..a little rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belsenj Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 still raining with slt Where are you on LI, Dan? I'm in East Northport and it changed over about 1:30 this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bloomberg was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It'll have to be once the pivot occurs and links with the mains bands. Lets see what we can squeeze out. Virtually all of NJ went to a lull or very light snow. A subsidence zone of death. Will it fill in or just snow itself out in E Pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bloomberg was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6.3" here so far, SN+. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowing hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A subsidence zone of death. Will it fill in or just snow itself out in E Pa? The phase is in the process of completing over the next couple hours. Those bands in PA will fill in across NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's a departing low pressure before the 2.14 storm that ushers in some colder air to the region. With low SSTs and snow cover across much of the region, I don't think temperatures will get too warm for this threat given the 18z GFS track of the low. The area should see 2-3 moderate to major snowfalls in February given the favorable tropical forcing pattern as well as the development of more of a -NAO. I also think Long Island can still score big...the 12z ECM had 1.25" QPF tonight for NYC with more out east. Even if they don't have anything yet, 1.5" QPF as snow is a 15-20" snowstorm. The fun may just be starting as the band intensifies in PA. We're REALLY going to have to salvage late tonight if we're going to break 12" at this point for LI outside of the North Shore. I have right now just a coating of all sleet, and the pings continue with no sign of retreat. The banding tonight will likely be intense around here, but I'm losing optimism fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyone have any links to short term models that can give this thread a lift until the main deform bands get going in the next couple hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We're REALLY going to have to salvage late tonight if we're going to break 12" at this point for LI outside of the North Shore. I have right now just a coating of all sleet, and the pings continue with no sign of retreat. The banding tonight will likely be intense around here, but I'm losing optimism fast. You are in a terrible location for snow. What else can I say? Here in Westchester it's been snowing all day, and we have over half a foot on the ground with moderate snow ongoing. If the wetter runs are right, we still have close to 1.5" QPF to go. JFK has had .55" QPF so far, and the wetter models have been showing close to 2" QPF on the western parts of Long Island. If we get all that as snow with decent ratios, you finish up with around 15"...people with a few inches on the ground get 20" and the North Shore further east gets 25-30". The thing is, we haven't seen that much liquid yet. So either the models bust horribly on QPF or we have a LONG ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Bands in PA building east (finally). Hope is on its way for us C-joisey folks. the weather guy on News 12 the NJ cable station don't know his name, just said we are not getting much at all from the bands in Pa..maybe an inch or two light snows and that this storm is wrapping up and has basically underperformed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 So what's going on? Bust in metro area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 CNN just stated that NEW YORK CITY is in for abour 2 to 3 more inces of snow then its over, Can anyone confirm this by whats happening now ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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