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Blizzard of 2013 Forecast Discussion Part II


forkyfork

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Sleeting again in Lynbrook at 30.7 degrees.

 

Are the chances still there for us getting under any of those 2-3 inch an hour bands? Or, will this be East of us in Suffolk.

When the 12-20 inch totals are given, they can't be talking about Southern  and Western Nassau County, right?

in lynbrook you have almost no chance at anything near 20", be happy with half of that

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That looks far more exciting than this one and much less complex.

 

 

 

 

Agree. MJO will be in phase 2 by that time which is ideal tropical forcing for mid atlantic snow potential at this time of year. This one has the look of a widespread DCA-BOS SECS chance to me.

 

Not selling this storm short though. Most in the NYC metro should hit high end SECS values to MECS out on LI (8-16").

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Agree. MJO will be in phase 2 by that time which is ideal tropical forcing for mid atlantic snow potential at this time of year. This one has the look of a widespread DCA-BOS SECS chance to me.

 

Not selling this storm short though. Most in the NYC metro should hit high end SECS values to MECS out on LI (8-16").

 

The cold air source looks pretty putrid though with no high to the north, at least there is not going to be a primary low to deal with though

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The cold air source looks pretty putrid though with no high to the north, at least there is not going to be a primary low to deal with though

 

 

Eh, mid February with an intensifying sfc low moving 200 miles SE of us will probably be sufficient given the marginal airmass.

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Eh, mid February with an intensifying sfc low moving 200 miles SE of us will probably be sufficient given the marginal airmass.

 

There's a departing low pressure before the 2.14 storm that ushers in some colder air to the region. With low SSTs and snow cover across much of the region, I don't think temperatures will get too warm for this threat given the 18z GFS track of the low. The area should see 2-3 moderate to major snowfalls in February given the favorable tropical forcing pattern as well as the development of more of a -NAO.

 

I also think Long Island can still score big...the 12z ECM had 1.25" QPF tonight for NYC with more out east. Even if they don't have anything yet, 1.5" QPF as snow is a 15-20" snowstorm. The fun may just be starting as the band intensifies in PA. 

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Is that where we get our heaviest snows? Sorry I don't really know much lol

 

It'll have to be once the pivot occurs and links with the mains bands.  Lets see what we can squeeze out.  Virtually all of NJ went to a lull or very light snow.

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THUNDERSNOW....just had thunder and lightning and now getting destroyed. The band before was sleet, but it's just dumping now. Lightning actually knocked out power for a sec.

..i can confirm that..about 10 min. ago here in eastport..

..the battle STILL going on..hvy snow to sleet..a little rain..

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There's a departing low pressure before the 2.14 storm that ushers in some colder air to the region. With low SSTs and snow cover across much of the region, I don't think temperatures will get too warm for this threat given the 18z GFS track of the low. The area should see 2-3 moderate to major snowfalls in February given the favorable tropical forcing pattern as well as the development of more of a -NAO.

 

I also think Long Island can still score big...the 12z ECM had 1.25" QPF tonight for NYC with more out east. Even if they don't have anything yet, 1.5" QPF as snow is a 15-20" snowstorm. The fun may just be starting as the band intensifies in PA. 

We're REALLY going to have to salvage late tonight if we're going to break 12" at this point for LI outside of the North Shore. I have right now just a coating of all sleet, and the pings continue with no sign of retreat. The banding tonight will likely be intense around here, but I'm losing optimism fast.

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Guest Patrick

Anyone have any links to short term models that can give this thread a lift until the main deform bands get going in the next couple hours?

:lol:

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We're REALLY going to have to salvage late tonight if we're going to break 12" at this point for LI outside of the North Shore. I have right now just a coating of all sleet, and the pings continue with no sign of retreat. The banding tonight will likely be intense around here, but I'm losing optimism fast.

 

You are in a terrible location for snow. What else can I say? Here in Westchester it's been snowing all day, and we have over half a foot on the ground with moderate snow ongoing. 

 

If the wetter runs are right, we still have close to 1.5" QPF to go. JFK has had .55" QPF so far, and the wetter models have been showing close to 2" QPF on the western parts of Long Island. If we get all that as snow with decent ratios, you finish up with around 15"...people with a few inches on the ground get 20" and the North Shore further east gets 25-30". 

 

The thing is, we haven't seen that much liquid yet. So either the models bust horribly on QPF or we have a LONG ways to go. 

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Bands in PA building east (finally).  Hope is on its way for us C-joisey folks. 

 

 

the weather guy on News 12 the NJ cable station don't know his name, just said we are not getting much at all from the bands in Pa..maybe an inch or two light snows and that this storm is wrapping up and has basically underperformed

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