Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this. Cant wait to travel to work friday night, its gunna be a nightmare btw for anyone who doesn't know about it, DT did this amazing list several years ago where almost every major/historic east coast snowstorm has either started, continued, or ended on either saturday or sunday. This would certainly not buck the trend here. There were a couple several years ago that did, I believe 1/27/11 was a weekday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 very intrigued by the 50% of greater than 12in for nyc on the srefs. Their snow probability forecasts are usually pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 btw for anyone who doesn't know about it, DT did this amazing list several years ago where almost every major/historic east coast snowstorm has either started, continued, or ended on either saturday or sunday. This would certainly not buck the trend here. There were a couple several years ago that did, I believe 1/27/11 was a weekday. Does anyone have his latest call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 btw for anyone who doesn't know about it, DT did this amazing list several years ago where almost every major/historic east coast snowstorm has either started, continued, or ended on either saturday or sunday. This would certainly not buck the trend here. There were a couple several years ago that did, I believe 1/27/11 was a weekday. Yeah the 2/10/10 and 2/26/10 sorta broke that rule and then 1/27/11. They were all Wednesday/Thursday storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone have his latest call? I think he just has a first guess out now but that was from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this. Cant wait to travel to work friday night, its gunna be a nightmare Metro north already saying they will potentially limit service, the trains are packed enough when it's not snowing, if they go to a sunday schedule(which they say they might), that's 1/2 hourly expresses to stamford instead of every 10 minutes, and no limited or semi express trains, it would be a complete disaster... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone have his latest call? ya his first guess is from yesterday...8-15 for NYC metro...maybe more up towards you don't remember though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, the GFS/NAM compromise is the euro solution from last night. It will be interesting to see the 12z run today. Maybe a stronger southern development pumps the ridge to the east a tad more forcing a track closer to the coast and earlier phase. I would be great see this bombing even a little more moving over KHAT. Other mets in the NE forum have mentioned that it could force the phase east somewhat because it's the dominant S/W, and that it's necessary to also strengthen the northern stream accordingly. If the Euro holds in an hour, it's a great, great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not for nothing but bill evans just tweeted that he is adjusting snow totals for nyc and said he is going colder and more snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not for nothing but bill evans just tweeted that he is adjusting snow totals for nyc and said he is going colder and more snowier not surprising based on 12z guidance thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bloomberg will get wrecked again if the nam was to score one up here. I will refer to it as the BLOOMBERG STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 btw for anyone who doesn't know about it, DT did this amazing list several years ago where almost every major/historic east coast snowstorm has either started, continued, or ended on either saturday or sunday. This would certainly not buck the trend here. There were a couple several years ago that did, I believe 1/27/11 was a weekday. Is that really a big deal? Basically says that most storms happen Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday - that's 4 of the 7 days in aweek. If you cut the week into parts of 4 days and 3 days, I would expect most storms to occur in the part with more days in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS pretty much in line with the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It seems that a track in-between the NAM/GFS and liquid amounts of the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Plume Viewer (SREF) now up to 14" for NYC (up from 10" on last run and up from 6" yesterday) and down to 28" from 31" for Boston---steady since yesterday. NYC increase due to greater QPF but still some wasted precip. as sleet, ice etc. Potential now 18" for full conversion @10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Other mets in the NE forum have mentioned that it could force the phase east somewhat because it's the dominant S/W, and that it's necessary to also strengthen the northern stream accordingly. If the Euro holds in an hour, it's a great, great sign. We just don't have very many analog split flow snowy phase bombs.Our best storms are usually all STJ developments or when the whole northern stream is forced south under a block. Most of the split flow phasing events of the past have blasted either New England or the Maritimes. This is a very rare set up for us and an interesting study case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For kjfk at max temp I could find was 34 F. Problem is the 850-900 layer is warm, so it could be in the form of sleet/snow even a little bit of rain. yes - i mentioned this and posted the skews earlier...but by hr 36 or 39 its all cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well bill evans had nyc this morning 3-6", now at noon time he has NYC getting 6-12" with 12+ well Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well bill evans had nyc this morning 3-6", now at noon time he has NYC getting 6-12" with 12+ well Northeast. That's about right...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Did anybody ever post the GGEM?..similar to the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is that really a big deal? Basically says that most storms happen Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday - that's 4 of the 7 days in aweek. If you cut the week into parts of 4 days and 3 days, I would expect most storms to occur in the part with more days in it thats actually not what it says. The storm has to include saturday and or sunday. I odds are not 4/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is that really a big deal? Basically says that most storms happen Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday - that's 4 of the 7 days in aweek. If you cut the week into parts of 4 days and 3 days, I would expect most storms to occur in the part with more days in it Well even if you only include storms that happened on just Saturday or Sunday, that's still March 1993, January 1996, December 2000, January 2005, February 2006, December 2009, and December 2010. There may be more but those are the more recent ones I can think of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How do the GEFS look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Now will the Euro be consistent asI fully expect it to be. It has done the least amount of waffling and it's the best model by far. By the way, when it comes to major events, the Euro is king. When it comes to minor events, it struggles just like all of the other models but it always seem to pick up a huge storm days in advance and stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone can confirm GEFS are west with precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How do the GEFS look? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone can confirm GEFS are west with precip? With the precip shielf itself, yes. But to be expected with a smoothed mean. Everything else looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's amazing what a 50-75 miles shift can do as well and all it takes is some faster phasing or so. There's definitely a bust potential out there either way, but I think we're more likely to see more snow than less. Can you imagine if the Nam was correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 on wv this southern stream system is amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.