Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On the bright side this might be the worst stretch of snow we ever see if we fail the rest of winter. Nah, we'll have a legit nina next year with a raging +ao. It's gonna be sick. 1,100 days or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On the bright side this might be the worst stretch of snow we ever see if we fail the rest of winter. Amen to that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I never would have guessed we'd have three top three hottest summers in a row. Just because something shouldn't happen doesn't mean it won't. If the pattern looked better I might have more hope. Fortunately it's not hard to fluke in Feb but we might end up needing a fluke. True. We could be going into some climatic abyss. We only have credible data for 125 years. That would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 True. We could be going into some climatic abyss. We only have credible data for 125 years. That would suck.I know it's sorta silly to give up hope at this pt given how Feb is usually our best month. I just don't know if we can carry that expectation given how things have gone thus far. Well, at least when it comes to nomal... besting .8" shouldnt be inpossible. A brief look at other winters with so little snow thru now still avgs a somewhat respectable number here out, though if you manipulate it a bit to fit not as good... It's possible I'm just being too negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 (5)Five seasons had just single-digit snows at DCA, with three of those under 5". This is the gist of the present board agony. If DCA can't crack double-digits before spring, it will be 5 of the past 7 years. Another of those years had 10.1" That's unprecedented. Another problem is that, as those of us who have lived around here a long time well know, seasons with these low totals through the end of January usually don't see a late recovery. They just stink as a whole. I know the 40's had a couple of years that got rescued after January, but we're at the point that we're rooting for the once-in-a-decade winter like 71-72, 85-86 or 98-99 in the metro area. I'm not doom and gloom like Ji because I've had 12+" But I've also endured a 5" season and an 8" season here the past five years, and I totally get where he's coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The lack of "normal" is rather disconcerting. Ether the models lock in a HECS or it waffles around for days only to be flurries at verification. It seems like standard 5 inch storms have been outlawed. It is getting pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The lack of "normal" is rather disconcerting. Ether the models lock in a HECS or it waffles around for days only to be flurries at verification. It seems like standard 5 inch storms have been outlawed. It is getting pretty ridiculous.Normal is kind of a misnomer of course, but the past few years have been peculiar weatherwise any way you cut it. It's one thing to balance over some marginal diff one way or another but we've mostly just bounced from extreme to extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 "This is the gist of the present board agony. If DCA can't crack double-digits before spring, it will be 5 of the past 7 years. Another of those years had 10.1" That's unprecedented. Another problem is that, as those of us who have lived around here a long time well know, seasons with these low totals through the end of January usually don't see a late recovery. They just stink as a whole. I know the 40's had a couple of years that got rescued after January, but we're at the point that we're rooting for the once-in-a-decade winter like 71-72, 85-86 or 98-99 in the metro area. I'm not doom and gloom like Ji because I've had 12+" But I've also endured a 5" season and an 8" season here the past five years, and I totally get where he's coming from." Oh, I know the gist of this board is agony. I was posting those stats just for information and to counter this belief that somehow we have to "pay" for 2009-10 (which some people have expressed, either seriously or in humor). As far as lame winters through January getting rescued late, I'd say Feb. 2007 came awfully close to accomplishing just that. In some ways, I look at that as an underrated winter. I've said this before, but if this area had gotten hit with the Valentine's Day storm that year (which it looked like we would for awhile), then it would have probably been considered a pretty good season. Imagine if we had gotten 12"+ from that, which we were oh-so-close to having happen, instead of a 3" sleet-fest. That, on top of extreme cold that month which lasted into March. But yeah, what we've experienced last winter through this year so far is just damn depressing. Coming on the heels of suffering the three hottest Julys on record is a double slap in the face! (By the way, I had to cut and paste your quote above, not sure what happened and why it didn't appear in the reply box!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Normal is kind of a misnomer of course, but the past few years have been peculiar weatherwise any way you cut it. It's one thing to balance over some marginal diff one way or another but we've mostly just bounced from extreme to extreme. Maybe it is nostalgia talking, but what happened to the storms that used to drop 3 in DC and 5 in the suburbs? Now if the models don't show 2 inches of liquid with cold temps 24 hours out we get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Maybe it is nostalgia talking, but what happened to the storms that used to drop 3 in DC and 5 in the suburbs? Now if the models don't show 2 inches of liquid with cold temps 24 hours out we get flurries. Good point...we seem to be living in an era of extreme weather...all or nothing or little if any anything. Look at even our warm/hot weather storms. Derecho or sprinkles. Winter storms are 2' or 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Maybe it is nostalgia talking, but what happened to the storms that used to drop 3 in DC and 5 in the suburbs? Now if the models don't show 2 inches of liquid with cold temps 24 hours out we get flurries. The raging Pacific Jet reloads more often than patterns that correlate with East Cast snow. In other words, most years, we get the opposite of a predominate sub-tropic plume of moisture and vorticity that is counter-balanced by high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I guess I have a hard time understanding how people can be so emotionally invested in something they have no control over. I love snow/storms as much as the next guy, but to get all "omfg this sucks I want to slit my wrists because it hasn't snowed" is just absurd, and that attitude is sickenly prevalent around here. Furthermore, As a discipline of science, being emotionally involved reduces ones ability to remain objective. In it for strictly the science huh? Are you a met? Sitting around with your slide rule and endless lists of physics/calculus equations? I find your post more than a bit condescending as if somehow those of us who do have some emotion about weather are somehow outcasts of this great scientific forum. We have mets here who have dedicated their lives to the science of weather. Most of the rest are here to learn a from them because we are EMOTIONALLY invested in the actual weather that we get to experience, and because there's the challenge of seeing if we can do to some degree what the pros do, forecast the weather. So if the objective, cold, rational science of weather is the only reason you're here, OK. You're just going to have to tolerate the rest of us who are here for FUN. Do you even live in the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Maybe it is nostalgia talking, but what happened to the storms that used to drop 3 in DC and 5 in the suburbs? Now if the models don't show 2 inches of liquid with cold temps 24 hours out we get flurries. We've gotten them. Just not as often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 In it for strictly the science huh? Are you a met? Sitting around with your slide rule and endless lists of physics/calculus equations? I find your post more than a bit condescending as if somehow those of us who do have some emotion about weather are somehow outcasts of this great scientific forum. We have mets here who have dedicated their lives to the science of weather. Most of the rest are here to learn a from them because we are EMOTIONALLY invested in the actual weather that we get to experience, and because there's the challenge of seeing if we can do to some degree what the pros do, forecast the weather. So if the objective, cold, rational science of weather is the only reason you're here, OK. You're just going to have to tolerate the rest of us who are here for FUN. Do you even live in the MA? Not a met, was in school for it until I determined that the job outlook wasn't so hot. Electrical engineer now. My world is logical and practical. Emotion has no place in my line of work, and I tend to view everyday life accordingly. Getting incredibly angry/upset/irritated that it didn't snow hardly seems like fun, but hey, it's your life. Do I have to live in the MA? I figured spending 10+ hours a day working in it was good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not a met, was in school for it until I determined that the job outlook wasn't so hot. Electrical engineer now. My world is logical and practical. Emotion has no place in my line of work, and I tend to view everyday life accordingly. Getting incredibly angry/upset/irritated that it didn't snow hardly seems like fun, but hey, it's your life. Do I have to live in the MA? I figured spending 10+ hours a day working in it was good enough. I don't see that we have very many that get extremely upset, ever. But to suggest we should not be emotionally invested removes a good part of the reason to be here in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I don't see that we have very many that get extremely upset, ever. But to suggest we should not be emotionally invested removes a good part of the reason to be here in the first place. We're fans and enthusiasts here. We root. It's all we can do. Fans of anything are emotionally attached. Doesn't matter what it is. If you are fan you will feel the sting of not winning. On this forum winning = snow. It's not complicated or silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We're fans and enthusiasts here. We root. It's all we can do. Fans of anything are emotionally attached. Doesn't matter what it is. If you are fan you will feel the sting of not winning. On this forum winning = snow. It's not complicated or silly. I don't see it as such, perhaps that's why I don't understand. I'm here because I think the subject is interesting and I want to learn more about it. It's pretty much the motivation for everything I do. Hell, I can't even drive over a bridge without observing and analyzing the structure; identifying load bearing points, pondering the geometry, etc. I genuinely have fun, learning, so long as that learning can be applied to the real world. So I guess I'm winning all the time??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 And speaking of winning, wtf is up with the wizards? I cant compare them to our snow chances anymore. Maybe it's connected?!? Feb gonna rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I don't see it as such, perhaps that's why I don't understand. I'm here because I think the subject is interesting and I want to learn more about it. It's pretty much the motivation for everything I do. Hell, I can't even drive over a bridge without observing and analyzing the structure; identifying load bearing points, pondering the geometry, etc. I genuinely have fun, learning, so long as that learning can be applied to the real world. So I guess I'm winning all the time??? You obviously aren't a snow weenie. It will never make sense to you.It's like me trying to understand why soccer games cause riots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Let me add, my comments weren't directed to this subforum, there's plenty of the mentioned attitude in other regional forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 And speaking of winning, wtf is up with the wizards? I cant compare them to our snow chances anymore. Maybe it's connected?!? Feb gonna rock! Damn, if our snow chances are tied to the Wizards..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Damn, if our snow chances are tied to the Wizards..... They've won 7 out of 10 or something like that. And this is after starting 3 and 90. Anything can happen I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We've gotten them. Just not as often. I would guess that we have been entering a different climate regime in terms of snowfall than what we are familiar with. A sucky winter in the past meant like 2 events and nothing else worth tracking-- but those two events at least covered the grass (like 90/91 or 91/92 or 94/95). Even 01/02, as a one event season, had that one 2-4" snow. But, looking at winters before we were born, there were some really brutal stretches. Like 26/27 through 31/32 repeated would match any of our modern terrible winter stretches. Only one of those winters, measured in DC, was ok. Repeated at DCA, that 18" winter probably would be only like 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 And speaking of winning, wtf is up with the wizards? I cant compare them to our snow chances anymore. Maybe it's connected?!? Feb gonna rock! They better stop winning, they are not going to make the playoffs and I want a good draft pick. They have looked great since Wall came back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's simple. You need to put out some energy to get something back. You whiners need to pony up some donations to the subscription drive and show the snow gods that you are serious. Then it will snow some more. Buy a ticket to the game so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's simple. You need to put out some energy to get something back. You whiners need to pony up some donations to the subscription drive and show the snow gods that you are serious. Then it will snow some more. Buy a ticket to the game so to speak. The number of donators seem much lower this year than last. I guess the economy is hurting people big time. I just looked through this thread and only 3 people who posted in it gave anything. It is funny how the biggest complainers never give any money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The number of donators seem much lower this year than last. I guess the economy is hurting people big time. If the state of Maryland wasn't intercepting 5k of my refund, I'd be attacking that list. In the interim, a few dollars will do come next pay period. As for 'buying a ticket to the game...' I'm a firm believer in the 'watched pot' effect. I found that the guys that chase the girl too hard end up alone. If it snows, it snows. I have no control over the weather, I'm merely a messenger. As I've often said, It's more important to know whether there will be weather than what the weather will be. (I can't take claim to that, though it is the reason I jumped into Meteorology) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 If the state of Maryland wasn't intercepting 5k of my refund, I'd be attacking that list. In the interim, a few dollars will do come next pay period. As for 'buying a ticket to the game...' I'm a firm believer in the 'watched pot' effect. I found that the guys that chase the girl too hard end up alone. If it snows, it snows. I have no control over the weather, I'm merely a messenger. As I've often said, It's more important to know whether there will be weather than what the weather will be. (I can't take claim to that, though it is the reason I jumped into Meteorology) You should see what they are doing to me as a small business owner, and with Omalley's tax increase I am getting destroyed. I wish I was only getting 5K intercepted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You should see what they are doing to me as a small business owner, and with Omalley's tax increase I am getting destroyed. I wish I was only getting 5K intercepted . You should come out for a beer tomorrow. There's a topic for it. I think you and I are on the same page (For what it's worth, I served as an infantryman in the Army...so politically, we may be on the same scale) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 For Richmond, hopefully whatever happens, happens during the first 20 days of the month. Statistically speaking, the February 20-29th period has not been historically prime for large events. Since 1897, here are the snowstorms 3.0" or more during that period at RIC, beginning with the most recent. There were quite a few events with 2.7-2.9" that barely missed the list.4.0" February 26-27, 19935.3" February 23-24, 19896.6" February 27-28, 19824.7" February 29-March 1, 19687.3" February 28, 19645.3" February 26, 19635.6" February 26-27, 19525.4" February 24, 19529.3" February 19-20, 19473.6" February 27-28, 19418.0" February 25, 19344.6" February 20, 19143.0" February 24, 1907Although some notable events have occurred in March, of course our time begins to run out considerably after about the first week of the month. But, hopefully, this is the one year that March actually delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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