Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 oh no, you guys aren't going to make "usefulness" a requirement in all posts, are you? Ratios are worth more when everything else is settled. Let me know when we are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Day 10 looks like a slight relaxation yes, but more north of the Dakotas on the move south (snow, rinse, repeat, but without the rinse I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Swimmate, really? Lol I agree with you but the majority of people in here have no business then throwing out it looks like 5-8 inches or 2-4 inches 7 days before an event. Things will change many times before game time. I was just throwing my opinion out there. Thanks for your opinion though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I'm just happy it's cold finally with a chance of an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 thanks for posting that next to the Euro run, it's probably the best computer prog of this season! I told you, Mitch, a few days ago that I wouldn't throw in the towel as long as MJO moved along into phase 8. Most guidance now shows this. Keep the faith for a good end of Jan-Feb MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 The "snow" chances look a smidge better on the SREFS for Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro ensemble mean has a similar look to the op for late week.. plenty cold etc. Less precip, focus a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Euro ensemble mean has a similar look to the op for late week.. plenty cold etc. Less precip, focus a bit further north. How much is "a bit?" Edited: Enough to imply a PA hit instead, I mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 How much is "a bit?" like.. c/northern pa into southern ny. but it's similarly cold.. overall it's just a magnitude drier. i'd take it as supportive mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Thanks guys for all your knowledge I really enjoy reading everyone's opinion. Ill just post less fine with me. This was a Friday/Saturday storm correct but is it looking to maybe effect our region on Thursday? Just wondering the timeline for this potential? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z GFS is good if you like mix/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 18z GFS is good if you like mix/rain That seems weird. I suppose it's possible, but I can see this moving toward the Euro solution. I just want to see it wet. I think the cold is an ally this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 That seems weird. I suppose it's possible, but I can see this moving toward the Euro solution. I just want to see it wet. I think the cold is an ally this time. for you yes...I'll assume this will go north and essentially screw us until it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 for you yes...I'll assume this will go north and essentially screw us until it happens I think the opposite. I think it trends more south, especially the transfer, and sends precip into a colder airmass than we've seen so far. Of course I trust your thoughts more than my own, but I think you probably trust the Euro more on this occasion. I think we all are a bit wary and afraid to believe in a best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 I think the opposite. I think it trends more south, especially the transfer, and sends precip into a colder airmass than we've seen so far. Of course I trust your thoughts more than my own, but I think you probably trust the Euro more on this occasion. I think we all are a bit wary and afraid to believe in a best case scenario. it makes 100% sense to me that in battle of streams the northern stream will win every single time unless they can dance together....i do agree there will be frozen on the front end most likely, but I have no doubt it wont take much this winter to dislodge a -100 degree air mass and flood us with warm air and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 for you yes...I'll assume this will go north and essentially screw us until it happens Well one thing we have going for us- the arctic air will be in place and its usually pretty stubborn to move out. Models tend to do this too fast. Plus its not a wholesale pattern change we are looking at coming in behind this storm...more cold reloads after. And the Euro for 2 runs has a better track than the GFS. That being said, we have been screwed every which way the last 2 winters. So I have decided I am not going to look at the models till mid week. Focus on the Ravens tomorrow, and enjoy the cold weather for the balance of the week, I'll check back around Wednesday. Ha who am i kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 who cares...it is an estimate based on one model run that will change...so you are a weenie...just know that......Wes is a QPF expert so he can add more value...our average ratio is 11:1, so you should probably stick with that for a juicy system coming from the west I think until you can look at soundings, it's best to use the 11-1 average for our area, especially with a "juicy storm" It's somewhat encouraging that the thee GEFS ensembles based on eh 12Z run are pretty well divided between a northern track and one that would be to our south. Right now I have no clear inclination of which model to choose though I might favor the Tn or oh valley track putting a low near the euro ens mean by a little but not by an awful lot. Even that track should give us some winter weather I'd think. I had to edit the post as I had looked at the 12 GEFS not the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I see a decent zr event coming out of this, especially in the burbs, before any changeover to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I see a decent zr event coming out of this, especially in the burbs, before any changeover to plain rain. I think the cold will be too deep. If we can get a good slug of precip I think we will see some acc snow. Of course this is still way out there so I feel silly talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I see a decent zr event coming out of this, especially in the burbs, before any changeover to plain rain. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I see a decent zr event coming out of this, especially in the burbs, before any changeover to plain rain. I would think we can get snow at the front before it changes to zr. Id imagine we'd have COld air lodged at the mid levels too. This is a pretty formidable air mass. Similar to 1/27/09 though this one may be fresher a week from now than that one was at that point. That storm may be a good analog. Will have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I would think we can get snow at the front before it changes to zr. Id imagine we'd have COld air lodged at the mid levels too. This is a pretty formidable air mass. Similar to 1/27/09 though this one may be fresher a week from now than that one was at that point. That storm may be a good analog. Will have to look. South and East had decent amounts...3" or so....about 1.8" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 South and East had decent amounts...3" or so....about 1.8" here I imagine the storm will go to our north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 you know, don't forget folks that 4 days ago, the operational Euro had this storm in almost the identical location at Day 10 and was set to give us snow so I don't know why everyone is thinking this is some fluke run or something since its initial prog of the storm is virtually today's 12z run EDIT: today's prog is even colder, but this is the 10 day Euro from Tuesday of this week http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013011512!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I imagine the storm will go to our north and west. Looks like PG county also had a .25" of ice as well as 2-3" decent event overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Looks like PG county also had a .25" of ice as well as 2-3" decent event overall I had 2" before it changed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I've become weary of these long track events....5-6 days is far away. It will be interesting to see the many variations this event takes over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the storm disappears from the models in a couple days, then people look like fools for talking about specifics right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I had 2" before it changed over. That was a decent storm, but it under performed to a certain degree. The forecast here was a wsw for 3-5 then sleet freezing rain. We came up short on the snow even though the change to sleet didn't happen for about 12 hours. Only got about 2-2.5 because the precip struggled to come north until late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 If the storm disappears from the models in a couple days, then people look like fools for talking about specifics right now. dang; there goes my poll idea for guessing DCA's sea level pressure, pressure tendency, rate of rise/fall, wind direction and speed, and dp at 8:25 A.M. on 1/25/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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