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Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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They absolutely have, I was wondering why there was no talk about the early week system.  The Gfs and Nam are very close to a very long duration snow event.  This could end up being memorable, due to duration and what it ushers in.

 

Fun times ahead for sure.............anytime I see a polar boundary that close to sne I get wood, it will deliver 

 

 

Lets remember it was the ggem and its ens that potentially sniffed this miracle out..........man the gfs is close as is delivers two rounds of light snow to the south coast.

Yeah..we're heading into the best 6 weeks of winter we've had in 2 years and yet we still have a select few finding something to complain about. Will was right yesterday...Some people aren't happy unless they can find something negative or something to complain about. We've got arctic cold blast after blast lined up for weeks.We've got a snow event on Tuesday..we've got all the mets excited with how the pattern looks..They've all put caution flags away...and STILL we have a  few complaining.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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I really think a 24-48 hour light snow event is in the cards out there, can't rule out an ivt either out that way......I actually think its time to get excited, first time I have seen hope in two years now its nice to have something else to talk about than the mega 23 month long firestorm.

I really enjoy multi day inverted trough events. If you're on the right side of it huge dendrites stacking quickly as if it were written by Frost himself. They can be epic producers in this type of pattern if everything lines up even in a dry regime. OES can bring surprise dumpings too. It's been several years since we've had an east coast of New England OES blitz.

Then there are the clippers. Over the decades we've had many memorable clipper patterns. I remember one of the last years Bill Hovey was on WCVB, clipper after clipper bringing a widespread 1-3" a couple or times a week.

The Tuesday wave has a chance. That'd be a nice way to re-introduce winter before the coming multi-week stretch of excitement.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
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Freak, would you say 10 inches is about par for the course up that way in mid winter or are you guys behind a little?>

 

 

 

Pretty par for the course for early January given what I've seen the past few years here.  Real snowpack depth is Feb/March.  Ironically, last year we had about the same as right now I think.

 

 

I saw this inquiry, so I ran the numbers for here at the house.  Yesterday for my 6:00 A.M. CoCoRaHS report the snow depth at the stake was 9.5”, and using my available data (‘07-‘08 – ’11-‘12), the mean snowpack depth for January 11th comes in at 12.2 ± 5.4” (S.D.).  So, the current snow depth is a bit below average based on my limited five-year data set, but well within one S.D. and thus as PF indicated, nothing unusual.  Also worthy of note is the fact that on January 11th of last season, snow at the stake was only 4.5”, which is well outside one S.D. (-1.42 S.D.) in that data set and would certainly be considered more atypical.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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PF and his QPF. I will say it now, bet his playground has 2 feet of new at the end of this two weeks.

 

lol... but in reality a foot per week for two weeks is decently below average in January for this mountain.  We should be adding around 70-80" this month (a good month like Jan 2009 is 111") so if its only 24" in two weeks I'll be concerned.  And it doesn't look like even that's a lock. 

 

For comparison, over a 20 week season, our average weekly snowfall is roughly 16" (317")...and during heart of the season, it should be more like 20" a week to make up for lower weekly totals in late March and April.  Luckily we had that 85" in 3 week stretch to make up for what looks like a slow start to January.  As I've always said, precipitation is much more important than cold.  If its dry, no snow.  If its a wet pattern, we'll do fine.

 

I know "cry me a river"...

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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lol... but in reality a foot per week for two weeks is decently below average in January for this mountain. We should be adding around 70-80" this month (a good month like Jan 2009 is 111") so if its only 24" in two weeks I'll be concerned. And it doesn't look like even that's a lock.

For comparison, over a 20 week season, our average weekly snowfall is roughly 16" (317")...and during heart of the season, it should be more like 20" a week to make up for lower weekly totals in late March and April. Luckily we had that 85" in 3 week stretch to make up for what looks like a slow start to January. As I've always said, precipitation is much more important than cold. If its dry, no snow. If its a wet pattern, we'll do fine.

I know "cry me a river"...

If you average that much these first few weeks of January are going to be well below. Hopefully by the end of MLK things are more active for you

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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So everyone can read where Kev got his Euro comment earlier. From BOX AFD.

TUESDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY FORECAST. COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE BUT ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW. UPPER JET EXTENDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND IN POSITION TO INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. ECMWF BRINGS MEASUREABLE PCPN INTO MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS AT BEST GRAZES THE SOUTH COAST. OUR POP FORECAST WILL BRING CHANCE POPS UP ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD TREND OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF GMOS AND HPC VALUES.

Sounds like a big snowstorm is coming.

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Tom12309

Tom12309

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35 degrees and the Snow Eating Fog in the Dorptown.  

 

Which actually gave me a chuckle thinking of Blazing Saddles.  

 

"What is it that's not exactly air and not exactly water?" 

 

"I don't know.  But whatever it is, I hates it." 

 

I'm going out for a 50 mile bike ride.  Saying "f-you, weather" the whole way.  

 

I just hope we get a pile of snow so the xc trail system in my home town has plenty for their tiki torch and bonfire party on the 2nd.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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If you average that much these first few weeks of January are going to be well below. Hopefully by the end of MLK things are more active for you

Geezus cry me a friggin big river LOL. Dude they have been getting smoked. Add my two feet in two weeks in and he still is smoking climo. .before the highest climo period of the year.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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So everyone can read where Kev got his Euro comment earlier. From BOX AFD.

TUESDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY FORECAST. COLD FRONT IS OFFSHORE BUT ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW. UPPER JET EXTENDS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND IN POSITION TO INDUCE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT. ECMWF BRINGS MEASUREABLE PCPN INTO MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS AT BEST GRAZES THE SOUTH COAST. OUR POP FORECAST WILL BRING CHANCE POPS UP ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD TREND OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF GMOS AND HPC VALUES.

Sounds like a big snowstorm is coming.

Fairness to Kevin he never ever said big snowstorm

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