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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

At what hour?  Sorry, I don't really see anything noteworthy after a quick skim, lol.

 

Hour 18 from the 12z GFS.  The text output shows it ending as light snow with temperatures in the 30s (just a trace, I suppose).

 

Nothing to get excited about and the GFS seems to be alone on this, but I found it interesting.

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KATL.txt

 

It actually shows -SN at CLT and GSO at hr 24 with temperatures closer to freezing, but no QPF.

 

I don't think there's anything to fawn over and I don't think the NAM agrees, but I found it interesting.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry,

 

I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree here, but I don't think we have to wait till the end of the month for a more widespread winter storm potential.  I am targeting sometime b/w the 10th and 20th of February.  To me it looks like we will have some sort of blocking building around the 8th or 9th (even if east based initially, hints of a nice 50/50,  and an active southern stream with cold air close enough to help feed whatever comes across.

 

Furthermore, I see quite a bit of evidence for alleutian troughing which should promote more west coast ridging (in some fashion) than is shown on the operationals.  It wouldn't take much of a tweak to see the "actual" weather verify colder and potentially stormy with someone in the south/mid-south/southeast cashing in. In all honesty, I could see the entire trough buckling into the east and going negative tilt somewhere deep in the south as we move toward mid-month.

 

JMO but I remain very optimistic (not just for my area, but others as well)

 

 Well, I honestly wouldn't mind being wrong (too late) with my timing. I see that the 18Z GFS has joined the12Z GFS' favorable pattern change party around midmonth. I still don't believe it as I think it is rushing changes ~1-2 weeks too quickly like it often does and like it did earlier this month a bunch of times. We'll see.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

0z NAM appears to bring a shot of snow to N GA in a couple days. Thoughts from the winter weather experts??

Yeah and the GFS shows the teaser as well.  Thursday night the NGA mtns should see a few flurries with the arctic front.  Then another front rolls through late Saturday and the small QPF is actually associated with a weak shortwave and frontal precip.  Timing is not that great for us in far NGA as it would be late afternoon Saturday so it could just end up being sprinkles despite 850's below freezing.

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jrips27

jrips27

Posted
Posted

Yeah and the GFS shows the teaser as well.  Thursday night the NGA mtns should see a few flurries with the arctic front.  Then another front rolls through late Saturday and the small QPF is actually associated with a weak shortwave and frontal precip.  Timing is not that great for us in far NGA as it would be late afternoon Saturday so it could just end up being sprinkles despite 850's below freezing.

I won't be here so I'm sure y'all will get snow.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Well, I honestly wouldn't mind being wrong (too late) with my timing. I see that the 18Z GFS has joined the12Z GFS' favorable pattern change party around midmonth. I still don't believe it as I think it is rushing changes ~1-2 weeks too quickly like it often does and like it did earlier this month a bunch of times. We'll see.

 

 The 0Z Goofy is the 3rd Goofy run in a row to join the favorable pattern change party at midmonth. I still think it is rushing the pattern change by 1-2 weeks. We've seen this before with this model this winter. It likes to rush colder pattern changes. I'm still thinking late month before it would actually change. However, I wouldn't at all mind being wrong on the timing.

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VanillaDream

VanillaDream

Posted
Posted

Amazing how it was 70 earlier and its now 36 with wind and some sleet pellets falling from the sky.  I've always remembered anytime we get a tornado or severe weather down here in January, it is normally followed by some type of wintry precip.  Makes me wonder if Thursday Night and Saturday Night may turn out to be some snow showers in the area.... GFS shows some snow later tonight (flurries) and saturday night.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I had a patch of sn/ip virga go over just now.  Radar saw it, but I couldn't quite make it out, try as I might :)  I can say it is cold in that wind.  This has been a great wind day.  Hope the weekend chance holds on.....and the cold. Goofy has held on to the small chances for a number of runs now. T

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH last night is still discussion the potential of some light snow Saturday night. They even mentioned the possibility of lightining. That would be strange to get two systems within a few weeks that produce lightining.

 

<clipped section for Saturday>

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS MO SATURDAY MORNING... WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM IL TO SC. THE WARM FRONT
WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NC. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS... THE ENSUING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
THICKNESSES AND TEMPS TO REBOUND TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
HIGHS OF 45-50. MODELS DEPICT A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING... COINCIDENT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPENING
MOISTURE FROM 850 MB UP BEYOND 500 MB... AND AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH NC. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY HOWEVER... SO MUCH OF WHAT FALLS IS LIKELY TO
EVAPORATE/SUBLIMATE. GIVEN THAT THE WEB BULB PROFILE ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THE SURFACE DURING THIS
TIME IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND LIKELY JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE SOUTH... A COMBINATION OF LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES STILL
APPEARS REASONABLE. INTERESTING TO NOTE ARE THE GFS`S LAPSE RATES
ALOFT WHICH REACH 7.0 C/KM 800-500 MB SATURDAY NIGHT... SUGGESTING
THAT IF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO AUGMENT
INSTABILITY ALOFT... WE MAY SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IF THE
GFS`S STRONGER VORTICITY MAX IS CORRECT. AT ANY RATE... WILL LEAVE
IN A LOW CHANCE POP AREAWIDE FOR LATE AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT... BUT AGAIN EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AS THE SURFACE AIR
REMAINS DRY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NVA IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH. LOWS 30-35. -GIH
 

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Gfs is still going for a split flow with a nice ridge over Alaska and nw Canada thanks to the Aleutian low. Looks like this could be the mjo doing its dirty work in the Pacific. Now, if we could just get the Atlantic to come on board with some blocking which we have not seen since Dec. The Pacific has been favorable imo since the beginning of the year.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

 The 0Z Goofy is the 3rd Goofy run in a row to join the favorable pattern change party at midmonth. I still think it is rushing the pattern change by 1-2 weeks. We've seen this before with this model this winter. It likes to rush colder pattern changes. I'm still thinking late month before it would actually change. However, I wouldn't at all mind being wrong on the timing.

As February gets underway, by the time the first 5 days have eclipsed here in Greensboro we will be runining a couple degrees below normal for the young month. In fact if you go back to around Jan 18th or so we have been runing below normal with the exception of 2 seperate 48 hour periods of above normal. . Point is the pattern IMO has flipped for our climo to normal temp wise. It's not uncommon to see swings where you get days mixed in weighted heavily toward negative or posotive mean temps. I think also qpf wise everyone in the SE is above for January. Snowfall is another story of course.

 

GSO

18  43  27  35  -4 

19  49  25  37  -2 

20  60  33  47   8 

21  57  28  43   4 

22  38  23  31  -8 

23  41  19  30  -9 

24  37  23  30  -9 

25  25  21  23 -16 

26  39  22  31  -8 

27  40  24  32  -7 

28  48  33  41   1 

29  71  44  58  18  

30  72  57  65  25 

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ncwinterwxman

ncwinterwxman

Posted
Posted

Huh?  You can't be serious?  Stop trolling :)  Do you have anything to back that up?

Gfs is still going for a split flow with a nice ridge over Alaska and nw Canada thanks to the Aleutian low. Looks like this could be the mjo doing its dirty work in the Pacific. Now, if we could just get the Atlantic to come on board with some blocking which we have not seen since Dec. The Pacific has been favorable imo since the beginning of the year.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Huh?  You can't be serious?  Stop trolling :)  Do you have anything to back that up?

While the pna was strongly - and the epo+ in late Nov and early Dec we torched. Towards the end of the month the pna has mostly been+ with a -epo here and there. Nothing even close to the death vortex we saw last winter. Also the nao had a brief 2 week period where is was a -west based. But since then it has mostly been + or very east based and weak. Here are the charts.pna.sprd2.gifnao.sprd2.gif

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Bevo

Bevo

Posted
Posted

While the pna was strongly - and the epo+ in late Nov and early Dec we torched. Towards the end of the month the pna has mostly been+ with a -epo here and there. Nothing even close to the death vortex we saw last winter. Also the nao had a brief 2 week period where is was a -west based. But since then it has mostly been + or very east based and weak. Here are the charts.

 

Even with a +PNA, wouldn't a hyper active flow still cause the problems we have endured?

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Even with a +PNA, wouldn't a hyper active flow still cause the problems we have endured?

It could, again. This was IMHO. I don't think the Pacific has been that terrible. Could it have been better? Of course. But we have had a basically +nao since Christmas. The cold shots have not been able to lock in as well as the vortex that dropped in and lifted out very quickly.

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