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January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Donald Sutherland this morning:

 

"From the changes in the Arctic Oscillation, I believe it is now more likely than not that the stratospheric warming event was the result of the sustained block that ended in early January. If correct, the warming event was a bottom up response to earlier blocking, not a top-down one that would lead to strong blocking. While such blocking can't be ruled out at some point in February, such blocking probably would not be a response to the stratospheric warming event."

 

Real disappointed to hear that.  Again, the SSW proves to be a big unicorn.  It was a real SSW, but it wasn't a REAL SSW.  Part of my optimism in the long range was getting some blocking back.  Now that it seems the STJ is going to pick up, there won't be any -NAO to keep the cold and storms south.  Probably be cutter after cutter like we see in the operationals.  We've got to get something to suppress the flow and I'm not sure what's going to do it in the upcoming few weeks that we have left. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Quite pleased I tuned out for the weekend! Euro ens the same old mess they have been all winter...almost but not quite. It is about time to start hoping for a March 93 miracle! :weight_lift:   At least there will be ample time for the sky to heal itself! :fever:

 

 I certainly don't expect another Storm of the Century, but things are looking pretty encouraging for the late Feb. to mid-March period based on warm Dec.-Jan. analogs. After what will likely be a mild to warm early to mid-Feb (supported by warming models)., these analogs suggest the best of the winter could easily come afterward and March quite possibly will be Atlanta's coldest month of Nov-Mar! As far as I'm concerned, winter will likely not be over for ~seven weeks after probably taking a break for a couple. The warm Dec. analogs had successfully suggested a warm Jan. as well as a heightened risk for ZR at around the time it occurred. So, they do seem to have some predictive power.

 

 If interested in more details, go here for more warm Dec/Jan. analog analysis:

 

 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38633-rest-of-se-winter-best-by-far-yet-to-come-per-warm-dec-analogs/?p=1976253

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Looks like the AO may go negative again but the NAO does not follow. No surprises. We started off winter that way. Cold hit central and eastern Europe and parts of Asia. It's just not North America's turn. Definitely it's not the Southeast's turn.

 

Might get another ice event out of this winter with positively titled troughs. WAA is enough to go up and over the cold, but not enough to dislodge the wedge. Plus if the wave, PVA or upper-low is to the north or west it is very hard to get snow. It's classic rain or maybe ice. The basic rules hold. Look at last week's positively tilted short-wave. We dissected critical thickness, 850, 1000-500 thickness etc. Regardless of splitting hairs, the PVA was north; and the ice rule worked. A negative tilt north would have been just rain Tennessee side of the Apps, due to stronger WAA. East of Apps depends on CAD strength.

 

We would need a negatively tilted trough to go south with cold air already in place. Then you get the cold at all levels. I know that's obvious, but easy to forget when dissecting models. This year the only ones have ejected way to far north and brought warm rain. Believe the problem is that we've really not gotten into the right jet stream pattern for the South. Perhaps another TROWAL like what brought the snow the prior week could do it, but only light and local. Back to where we started, I don't see much snow this year.

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

I certainly don't expect another Storm of the Century, but things are looking pretty encouraging for the late Feb. to mid-March period based on warm Dec.-Jan. analogs. After what will likely be a mild to warm early to mid-Feb (supported by warming models)., these analogs suggest the best of the winter could easily come afterward and March quite possibly will be Atlanta's coldest month of Nov-Mar! As far as I'm concerned, winter will likely not be over for ~seven weeks after probably taking a break for a couple. The warm Dec. analogs had successfully suggested a warm Jan. as well as a heightened risk for ZR at around the time it occurred. So, they do seem to have some predictive power.

If interested in more details, go here for more warm Dec/Jan. analog analysis:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38633-rest-of-se-winter-best-by-far-yet-to-come-per-warm-dec-analogs/?p=1976253

It has to be almost unheard of for March to be colder than Dec,Jan, or Feb. I can see possibly early march being colder than those months but usually the 70s and 80s we get in mid to late march make the average for march as a whole to be warmer.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Looks like the AO may go negative again but the NAO does not follow. No surprises. We started off winter that way. Cold hit central and eastern Europe and parts of Asia. It's just not North America's turn. Definitely it's not the Southeast's turn.

 

Might get another ice event out of this winter with positively titled troughs. WAA is enough to go up and over the cold, but not enough to dislodge the wedge. Plus if the wave, PVA or upper-low is to the north or west it is very hard to get snow. It's classic rain or maybe ice. The basic rules hold. Look at last week's positively tilted short-wave. We dissected critical thickness, 850, 1000-500 thickness etc. Regardless of splitting hairs, the PVA was north; and the ice rule worked. A negative tilt north would have been just rain Tennessee side of the Apps, due to stronger WAA. East of Apps depends on CAD strength.

 

We would need a negatively tilted trough to go south with cold air already in place. Then you get the cold at all levels. I know that's obvious, but easy to forget when dissecting models. This year the only ones have ejected way to far north and brought warm rain. Believe the problem is that we've really not gotten into the right jet stream pattern for the South. Perhaps another TROWAL like what brought the snow the prior week could do it, but only light and local. Back to where we started, I don't see much snow this year.

I know this is 216 hours (12 GFS), but this looks like the pattern your talking about (..possible CAD setup).

 

gfs_namer_216_1000_500_thick.gif

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

It has to be almost unheard of for March to be colder than Dec,Jan, or Feb. I can see possibly early march being colder than those months but usually the 70s and 80s we get in mid to late march make the average for march as a whole to be warmer.

 

At Atlanta, March was the coldest of Nov.-Mar. three times: 1889-90, 1931-2, and 1959-60. All three of those Mar.'s produced the winter's coldest between 3/2 and 3/10. All three produced wintry precip. at KATL between 3/2 and 3/11. We're due for another soon fwiw. Warm Dec.-Jan. analogs suggest we may finally get another one this year...at least there's a decent shot at one.

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tonysc

tonysc

Posted
Posted

At Atlanta, March was the coldest of Nov.-Mar. three times: 1889-90, 1931-2, and 1959-60. All three of those Mar.'s produced the winter's coldest between 3/2 and 3/10. All three produced wintry precip. at KATL between 3/2 and 3/11. We're due for another soon fwiw. Warm Dec.-Jan. analogs suggest we may finally get another one this year...at least there's a decent shot at one.

Yeah although I was very young in 1960, I do remember big snow then here in the upstate of SC. My parents and others around their age said that we got three snowstorms within about a nine days in March of that year.

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
Posted

***BREAKING***DAY 2 MODERATE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH INCLUDING AR, LA, AND WESTERN MS...

 

Check the dedicated severe thread we've got going.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39028-severe-tornado-wind-event-looming-0130-0131-wed-thursday/

 

Could be a very active day, especially if the system goes negative tilt as some models are suggesting.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

The only good thing that can come from this is it brings more energy for a monster snow storm later. Of course, we have had some thunderstorms earlier this winter and that didn't happen, so it probably won't happen this time. 

That was the battle of Winter taking over Fall...is this the battle of Spring taking over Winter? We will soon find out.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

So the euro ensembles have the mjo going into phase 8 and heading to 1. But it's also backing off the cold in the 7-10 day and building up a ridge over the east at day 10. Anybody have any idea's on this? It also has a low in the bering sea which should help pump a ridge over the west coast.12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
12z JMA shows the low pressure that some have alluded to on the Euro, by the way, though QPF leaves a lot to be desired.  It's a long way out, though.  Our Christmas/Boxing Day Storm from 2010 was only modeled to have light QPF originally, so you really never know.

 

Hey, it's something to work with.

 

CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif

I'm in! All the models have some energy diving to the south day 5ish, they all have it very weak...hopefully it's still there when it gets in range of the short range/ higher res. models.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Chris is just spoiled from his stint out west :)  Now, anything under two or three feet is just piddling nothing snow, lol.  Except if Macon got in on Tony's big sleet, he would change his tune in a hurry, I'm sure :)

I'm glad to see NCSnow's little low show up.  I've been expecting that to appear after the frontal passage.  Now to get it to grow, and stay on the maps 'til the Moles can zero in.  Stay low..... stay...good low...stay! T

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