January Pattern and Storm Discussion II

[burgertime]

@162 our system is OTS and here comes the cold air. Bombs away....there might have been some light snow in the far SW side of the NC mountains. This cold shot looks stout on the Euro though.

[burgertime]

@168 -12 850's across much of NC. Wow. 

[nrhardin]

southern stream wave isn't going to have a much of a chance overcoming this push of arctic air from crushing it... unless it holds back and waits on the second wave of cold air next week which is unlikely

 

You are speaking straight truth today, sir. I doubt the vortex ends up coming that far south, and would be very surprised if we end up with 850 temps as cold as the GFS run has. Thats good for SE snow lovers, as hopefully the vortex will be centered farther north and we can be a little closer to threading the needle as you mentioned.

 

 

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

sizeable differences at 5,000ft between today's 12z Euro valid for 7am next Friday compared to yesterday's 12z Euro valid the same time

 

west coast ridge a bit taller on the new run also... good look for cold... yet, the jury is still out on any southern stream energy cruising in underneath the cold

 

edit: the "Fishel cold snap" is days away

[WilkesboroDude]

[franklin NCwx]

sizeable differences at 5,000ft between today's 12z Euro valid for 7am next Friday compared to yesterday's 12z Euro valid the same time

 

west coast ridge a bit taller on the new run also... good look for cold... yet, the jury is still out on any southern stream energy cruising in underneath the cold

 

edit: the "Fishel cold snap" is days away

Awesome, now the cold snap has a name the " Fishel cold snap". The Euro ensembles have had a colder pattern for a few days now. 12z is not out yet but here is the end of the 12z euro op from today and the 0z ensembles.

[tarheelwx]

sizeable differences at 5,000ft between today's 12z Euro valid for 7am next Friday compared to yesterday's 12z Euro valid the same time

west coast ridge a bit taller on the new run also... good look for cold... yet, the jury is still out on any southern stream energy cruising in underneath the cold

edit: the "Fishel cold snap" is days away

As I said, follow the fish primarily on short range (less than 24 hours)

Tw

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

for what it's worth, the GFS ensembles look good establishing Greenland block... Euro tries, but isn't positioned quite right... at least the Euro keeps a tall PNA ridge in our favor along the west coast

 

the image at the top of this page from "franklinNCwx" shows the GFS ensemle look with the polar vortex in a position to rotate spokes of cold air in our direction

 

although, we have seen this game many times before (waiting on a -NAO, especially last winter)... so it's anyone's guess at to whether it can lock in

[Mr Bob]

The Euro Ens mean rolling in now on SV has the -12C 850 line just south of NYC....not necessarily resounding support of the operational...still in wait and see mode...

[Cold Rain]

The Euro Ens mean rolling in now on SV has the -12C 850 line just south of NYC....not necessarily resounding support of the operational...still in wait and see mode...

"But the operational more skilled than the ensemble members."

Incoming....

[NCSNOW]

Midlo posted this in the MA thread. GFS compared to Euro next Friday;

 

one heck of spread between the gfs and the euro day 7 friday 1.18.13

 

 

gfs

 

 

 

 

euro

 

[Steven_1974]

In regards to the polar vortex, I was just curious, what's the furthest south it has ever been recorded to go when these stratosphereic warming events occur?

[GreensboroWx]

f

 

 

If you look at the mean 500mb plots above there isn't alot of difference, although the differences it shows are BIG!!

 

The +PNA and PV are both stronger on the ECMWF, while the low to the East of Hawaii is stronger on the GFS. 

 

I'd like a compromise between the two, please!!!

[Cold Rain]

f

Nice! No screaming Pac jet slamming into the Pacific NW in that pic there. Nice Antilles ridge there too.

[DaculaWeather]

Birmingham AFD 3:17pm today

 

THE RESULT OF THAT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS US AS EARLY AS NEXT THURSDAY.
THAT'S NOT A LOT OF TIME FOR THE INCOMING COLD AIR MASS TO
MODIFY...AND WE WILL HAVE TO START TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT
TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO MAKE SURE THERE IS NO WINTRY IMPLICATIONS.

[DaculaWeather]

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

959 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

VALID 12Z MON JAN 14 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 18 2013

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE

SCALE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH THE LOW

OVER THE SOUTHWEST FILLING, AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF HEIGHTS

ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THERE ARE EVEN SIGNS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN BY THE END

OF THE PERIOD. THE UPSHOT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE A MODERATION IN

TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES, INCREASINGLY SHARP

SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND, AND A DRYING

OUT ACROSS THE GULF STATES. SOMEWHERE IN THE SHUFFLING, A COUPLE

QUICK-HITTING WINTER WAVES MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW OR ICE FROM THE

CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.

RELIED ON THE ROCK-STEADY ECENS MEAN TO FLESH OUT THE SYNOPTIC

PARTICULARS, WHICH ADMITTEDLY IS STILL DIFFUSE WITH ANY GIVEN

PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE EAST. THE DETERMINISTIC

MODELS--ECMWF INCLUDED--HAVE NOT PROVEN STABLE ENOUGH TO

INCORPORATE INTO THE MANUAL FORECAST.

CISCO

[ColdRainsStr8cashhomey]

for what it's worth, the GFS ensembles look good establishing Greenland block... Euro tries, but isn't positioned quite right... at least the Euro keeps a tall PNA ridge in our favor along the west coast

 

the image at the top of this page from "franklinNCwx" shows the GFS ensemle look with the polar vortex in a position to rotate spokes of cold air in our direction

 

although, we have seen this game many times before (waiting on a -NAO, especially last winter)... so it's anyone's guess at to whether it can lock in

 

just to clarify... the ensembles create sort of a displaced Greenland block out in the day 9-10 range (even though, again, it's more of a east-based greenland block) ... day 9-10 may not be worth much, except that this look is backed up by the GFS operational developing somewhat of a slightly displaced Greenland block out around day 7 through 9

 

obviously the PNA/west coast ridge looks favorable for cold on the Ops and the Ensembles

[tnweathernut]

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.phpEXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD959 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013VALID 12Z MON JAN 14 2013 - 12Z FRI JAN 18 2013THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW EVOLUTION IN THE LARGESCALE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH THE LOWOVER THE SOUTHWEST FILLING, AND A GRADUAL LOWERING OF HEIGHTSACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THERE ARE EVEN SIGNS THAT THE SUBTROPICALRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN BY THE ENDOF THE PERIOD. THE UPSHOT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE A MODERATION INTEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES, INCREASINGLY SHARPSHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND, AND A DRYINGOUT ACROSS THE GULF STATES. SOMEWHERE IN THE SHUFFLING, A COUPLEQUICK-HITTING WINTER WAVES MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW OR ICE FROM THECENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION.RELIED ON THE ROCK-STEADY ECENS MEAN TO FLESH OUT THE SYNOPTICPARTICULARS, WHICH ADMITTEDLY IS STILL DIFFUSE WITH ANY GIVENPRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE EAST. THE DETERMINISTICMODELS--ECMWF INCLUDED--HAVE NOT PROVEN STABLE ENOUGH TOINCORPORATE INTO THE MANUAL FORECAST.CISCO

Thanks for posting these AFD's Dacula, they are always informative.  The part about drying out along the gulf coast was most noticeable to me. (and Brick too most likely...haha) 

 

With the ridge on the west coast in a prime spot, it appears on modeling that the vortex is so massive that it will not allow the flow aloft to come in from the southwest, which would help put much of the southeast in a prime position from overrunning precip.  Perhaps the first shot of arctic air will set the stage for an event that will minor out from west to east coming through the southeast.

 

As the polar vortex reconfigures itself and hopefully pulls back west a bit the second and perhaps more potent piece of arctic air could send down an impulse that could have an opportunity to phase with a shortwave coming through the south. 

 

One thing seems highly likely................cold air is finally on the way in a more sustained way.  With that in mind we will simply watch to see what mischeif can pop up.

[DaculaWeather]

Pretty good temp anomalies starting to enter the picture

 

 

 

[NCSNOW]

Man I can't begin to describe how thick the fog is/has been this afternoon. Lowest visibilities I can recall in a long time. Price you pay with such warm air above riding over wedged in cool air at the surface.

Anyway IMO it's pretty evident now in the upper SE atleast, that by Wednesday we will begin a new pattern. The plus is the Cold will be pretty consistent as things dumbell over top of us in SE Canada sending reinforcing shots down the pipeline. Negative is with NW flow it's gonna be cold and dry as rule of thumb. If you look out in fantasy land on models it's hard to see alot of evidence atm of the stj sending any help our way once we get part 1 of the equation solved(cold air). I'd bet that uplope events will be great over the next few weeks along with a southern sliding clipper or two. This will bode well for the mtns and TN/KY and possibly north GA at times. But east of the apps it's tough to get precip with a constant NW flow. Point is patience will most likely still be required. I wish for once I could get a good heavy snowpack laid down then have it followed by a 7-10 day stretch of below average temps in the dead of winter. Doing so would require moving, wishful thinking though!

[DaculaWeather]

[Cold Rain]

Man I can't begin to describe how thick the fog is/has been this afternoon. Lowest visibilities I can recall in a long time. Price you pay with such warm air above riding over wedged in cool air at the surface.

Anyway IMO it's pretty evident now in the upper SE atleast, that by Wednesday we will begin a new pattern. The plus is the Cold will be pretty consistent as things dumbell over top of us in SE Canada sending reinforcing shots down the pipeline. Negative is with NW flow it's gonna be cold and dry as rule of thumb. If you look out in fantasy land on models it's hard to see alot of evidence atm of the stj sending any help our way once we get part 1 of the equation solved(cold air). I'd bet that uplope events will be great over the next few weeks along with a southern sliding clipper or two. This will bode well for the mtns and TN/KY and possibly north GA at times. But east of the apps it's tough to get precip with a constant NW flow. Point is patience will most likely still be required. I wish for once I could get a good heavy snowpack laid down then have it followed by a 7-10 day stretch of below average temps in the dead of winter. Doing so would require moving, wishful thinking though!

You aint kidding. The fog is really thick out there. Imagine if there was a snow pack in place now!

That reminds me, there's some saying about fog on January 11th or something. I'm trying to remember it....hmmmm....

[burgertime]

Wow surprised no one mentioned the 18z tonight. It had a beautiful look in the LR. Even had a hardcore fantasy blizzard at 384 

[Cold Rain]

Wow surprised no one mentioned the 18z tonight. It had a beautiful look in the LR. Even had a hardcore fantasy blizzard at 384 

Yep, it keeps the cold nearby and a rather blocky look.

[NavarreDon]

Wow surprised no one mentioned the 18z tonight. It had a beautiful look in the LR. Even had a hardcore fantasy blizzard at 384 

 

 

If only!

 

[Shawn]

The cold air being shown on mutiple models here in mid-long range looks like it has very good credibility if you add up all the factors in play.  The ridge can't last forever, and the stratosphere warming event would make this seem even more plausible.  As we approach the end of Jan and into mid Feb, I think we will start seeing multiple cold shots with at least two or three systems forming in the gulf.  The issue of course, will be the track and intensity of said systems.

 

With that said, I personally like temps JUST right for snow, talking 31F/30F degrees here in SC since that usually means the low is a bit closer and the snow really piles up.  Example being Feb. 2010.

 

Also, I've noticed that if it snows in Dallas from a gulf based storm, it generally heads the way of GA,SC,Southern NC.  I'm pretty young though and don't have much first hand experince.

[Tacoma]

Jason on 13 news tonight at six said there is a growing chance that next Friday Jan. 18 we may have snow and cold, will have to keep watching the models.  Let the fun and games begin.   I HOPE

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Jason on 13 news tonight at six said there is a growing chance that next Friday Jan. 18 we may have snow and cold, will have to keep watching the models.  Let the fun and games begin.   I HOPE

Not sure what part of NC you are in but its going to be hard to get snow in Charlotte and Raleigh next Fri with forecast highs in the 50s.

[Tacoma]

Not sure what part of NC you are in but its going to be hard to get snow in Charlotte and Raleigh next Fri with forecast highs in the 50s.

In the Mtns. of NC but I've noticed before that the extended forecast a lot of times in the winter especially is totally wrong.  The safest bet is to go with like you said highs in the 50's and partly cloudy, then when a week later arrives I've seen totally opposite like say cold and snow.  Maybe Jason is on to something that the other mets don't want to let out until more model runs and a little closer to the event.  Then again maybe it will be partly cloudy and 50, but I hope not.

[Tacoma]

Growing chance in this case was met speak.  It was 1%.  Now it's 1.5%.

It was only 30% next Friday but high was like 35 with sleet and snow.  but said it has to be watched.