dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0-9 Not a lot of room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hmm. Think an inch or two is safe for you. Cool town name by the way. Think nw ri and the areas you mentioned is almost unforecastable right now. Tolland is screwed in this one as much as Moosup. 2-3" of glop then a cold, pissing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Interesting, Steve. Often I see you weenieing totals a bit, and you are throwing scooter caution flags. This concerns me. Mid levels seem to be the biggest issue. The tilt might ice things a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Tolland is screwed in this one as much as Moosup. 2-3" of glop then a cold, pissing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z nam looks a hair colder @hr 30, Track looks about the same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z NAM 12/26/12 thru 33 hours is a little slower with the precip. Structure of the front end is different. By 33 hours the 0c 8h line is already cutting from Plymouth MA west across north RI and northern CT. Not much precip has fallen in advance of it as of that point. You could look at it that it's colder, or just slower. There's less precip in the region than the 18z, but the 0c line is also a smidge south versus the 18z. Hand in hand. By 36 clearly the 0c line is south of the 18z, but precip has been cut in the eastern 1/2 north of the line to that point. So it's still a battle on the NAM, overall probably colder through 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Tolland will be slush to icy pingers off bare balding heads quick then to cold ego crushing drops of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Tolland is screwed in this one as much as Moosup. 2-3" of glop then a cold, pissing rain. That can't be right as CTBlizz says this storm will be 75% frozen for Connecticut. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z NAM 12/26/12 thru 33 hours is a little slower with the precip. Structure of the front end is different. By 33 hours the 0c 8h line is already cutting from Plymouth MA west across north RI and northern CT. Not much precip has fallen in advance of it as of that point. You could look at it that it's colder, or just slower. There's less precip in the region than the 18z, but the 0c line is also a smidge south versus the 18z. Hand in hand. Yeah a tad slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z NAM 12/26/12 thru 33 hours is a little slower with the precip. Structure of the front end is different. By 33 hours the 0c 8h line is already cutting from Plymouth MA west across north RI and northern CT. Not much precip has fallen in advance of it as of that point. You could look at it that it's colder, or just slower. There's less precip in the region than the 18z, but the 0c line is also a smidge south versus the 18z. Hand in hand. If you can't decipher it, it means nothin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 One of the reasons I don't feel very bullish for the high end numbers is that we'll probably htidally deal with a Dryslot coming north before a big front end thump. I think precip will regenerate as the Dryslot moves north...but mid level warming loves to move north with the Dryslot. I think ORH on north will get a good thump for sure, but 10-14" fr ORH? I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z nam looks a hair colder @hr 30, Track looks about the same as 18z Maybe a hair E of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Maybe a hair E of 18z. Not much more if any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The NAM continues to embarrass itself with this storm...not a clue what its doing not just here but over the OH Valley area, its upper and surface features/precip shield out that way do not fit its mid and upper depictions whatsoever. Its also likely too slow (as usual) advancing in the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That can't be right as CTBlizz says this storm will be 75% frozen for Connecticut. lol For some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This run of the NAM through 42 hours falls between the 12z and 18z runs in the temp spectrum. It's definitely pinching off the warm air faster this run. I'd say probably toss it, too erratic barring a major change from the Euro/GFS tonight. I agree with what everyone else is saying in terms of caveats. Regardless 1000/850mb CT's would support a good blast a snow particularly over the western 2/3s of the SNE area during the front end thump and maybe Boston too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM still pushing that 0C line into S Vt pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The NAM continues to embarrass itself with this storm...not a clue what its doing not just here but over the OH Valley area, its upper and surface features/precip shield out that way do not fit its mid and upper depictions whatsoever. Its also likely too slow (as usual) advancing in the precipitation. Its a disgrace, And needs to be tweaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Its a disgrace, And needs to be tweaked Problem is every now and then (2/6/10) it blows away every other model across the board with a storm. Just when you're about to totally throw it in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I won't be staying up for the Euro but here's hoping it doesn't cave to the NAM. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Problem is every now and then (2/6/10) it blows away every other model across the board with a storm. Just when you're about to totally throw it in the trash. Is there consistency in what type of patterns it performs best in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 The NAM continues to embarrass itself with this storm...not a clue what its doing not just here but over the OH Valley area, its upper and surface features/precip shield out that way do not fit its mid and upper depictions whatsoever. Its also likely too slow (as usual) advancing in the precipitation. I mentioned this earlier in this thread, that the 850mb center was N of the QC forcing and didn't make much sense - not about rain vs snow. So be it, but it won't come the NAM way. The 18z run look physically off, seems perhaps its carrying over into this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Matt Noyes made a nice case for lower totals. He also left a pretty wide door open Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man, that SE regional radar is lit up. A lot of energy in this system at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Problem is every now and then (2/6/10) it blows away every other model across the board with a storm. Just when you're about to totally throw it in the trash. There is the biggest problem, It's 1/50 events or higher its verifys, That is poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man, that SE regional radar is lit up. A lot of energy in this system at present. Plenty of warm air meeting that cold air, BOOM Like I said.... warm air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Matt Noyes made a nice case for lower totals. He also left a pretty wide door open Taint? What were his reasonings? (I guess i could watch - lol) Speed/duration of the intial thump will obviously play a role in SNE totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 nam is colder for us here in southern nh. it brings the 850 up into extreme southern nh then drops back so just north of that could be the heavy snow banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The 0z NAM is still really warm between 850mb and 700mb. Brings sleet and freezing rain pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 the sad part about the NAM is that it might be completely right about it's v-max track, but wrong about the thermal fields. Folks won't remember the right part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.