usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Not going to be good Wes I suspect you're and think 0-4 is more likely for DCA than more than 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Holding fast to my 0 to 0 call for Balt City north. And, H20, you need to make the "G" on your map a raised middle finger to properly capture the situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it's not just the nam. i swear people here are bipolar.. they'll spend their life on a d8-10 threat that won't happen but get lost in the weeds on an event right around the corner that actually has a chance. Yes, that's been a real issue this winter. I think folks want to appear "smart" about the weather and they believe that making dismissive posts about everything and looking at the 300 hour GFS will get them there. We used to be better with close-in climo or at least talk about it more. Now we despair over ten day model charts and ignore the storm tomorrow for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Well, part of that in this case may be that the storm tomorrow only potentially is in play for 1/2 the region. It hasn't really ever shown any of the snow up our way. ignoring/downplaying the storm for a chunk of this board is understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes, that's been a real issue this winter. I think folks want to appear "smart" about the weather and they believe that making dismissive posts about everything and looking at the 300 hour GFS will get them there. We used to be better with close-in climo or at least talk about it more. Now we despair over ten day model charts and ignore the storm tomorrow for some reason. Yea, pretty much. I try not to be guilty as charge but still.. Comes down to lack of close in events for a very long period of time. We've been stuck in a sh!t patter for what seems like an eternity. I think some of the issues being pointed out will change the next week or so. If we can manage a relatively active pattern for a "decent" period of time then things change quickly. Even a clipper or 2 in the <6 day period will keep things really quiet irt d9+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Holding fast to my 0 to 0 call for Balt City north. And, H20, you need to make the "G" on your map a raised middle finger to properly capture the situation... find me a icon for that and I will amend. My fear is that the G oval will need to be expanded S into DC/VA and I get the "finger" too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This thread should be a lot longer and the "threat" thread should be a lot shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm a 9....don't really get angry anymore about not getting it. This type of model output would have sent me over the edge a few years ago...now...eh...sucks but I will live...plus I'm still really sexy and good looking regardless of how much snow I get. Why WSW for Loudoun? Eastern maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when. So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms. I will start: D7+, EURO D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data) T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I've never understood why possible snow threats make us all bicker with each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when. So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms. I will start: D7+, EURO D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data) T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream). D7+: Ensembles, analogs, Longwave patterns, Indices(AO/NAO/PNA/QBO etc..) D4-D6: EURO, GFS, CMC, Ensembles 48-72hrs: SREF, Euro, GFS, CMC, NAM 24-48hrs: SREF, Euro, GFS, CMC, NAM, Verification, Obs 12-24hrs: SREF, RAP, HRRR, SPC-NMM, NAM, Obs <12hrs: Obs, RAP, HRRR, web-cams, Obs/reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I've never understood why possible snow threats make us all bicker with each other? I am guessing its more pronounced when the maps look like this one is probably gonna. When a part of the area cashes in and a part doesn't, that's the tipping point maybe (winterwxluvr v. most everybody else in the dec storms - south v north in this one). The consistent thing is the relative snow hole over Balt City. Yes, I am giving in to fullblown whining now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I caught some low level wave like passage on the weather station passing around 1:45.. It got really dark (supported by my new Solar Rad. Sensor) , the pressure shot up by 3 mb and the wind direction went crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This should help the old people with bad eyes. sref.JPG Thanks! My eyes and iPhone thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 There's been much discussion in the Jan 17-18 thread about what model guidance to use and when. So I'm curious to know what everyone's forecasting recipes are for winter storms. I will start: D7+, EURO D4 -> D6, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2 -> D3, Canadian, EURO, UKMET, GFS D2, SREF BUFKIT, Canadian, GFS, Remote Sensing (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data) T minus 24 hours, SREF, Remote Sensing tools (i.e.: radar, upper air soundings, satellite, buoy data, web cams and ground reports upstream). Far too complicated. Here's how you can simplify it: D1-15: Whichever model/s show the most snow. D0: Radar hallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This thread should be a lot longer and the "threat" thread should be a lot shorter. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 FWIW Two days ago the was nothing, nothing to look at - except for this piece - and almost no one really got excited then. (Except for, well, never mind) So now we have a modest event to track and the issues we come up against are the usual. But at least it is feeling like winter now. Looking forward to a larger, more potent event. Fingers crossed and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thank God Arlwx came in and posted the NWS stuff in a totally unreadable format!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the GFS bails I'm leaving the internet till it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the GFS bails I'm leaving the internet till it's over. I still have yet to collect on my first burger. Double or nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hopefully these are the best runs for thurs.. getting it yanked away after getting better might be rough Did you really say that out loud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM @ 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Did you really say that out loud?:-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAMji is funny but he's also an awful poster at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think it was because LWX issued the WSW...full blown jinx. They control the weather with their actions, it is well known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAM As if there wasn't enough drama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ji is funny but he's also an awful poster at times. not just him. your post about being lost in the weeds seems even more appropriate now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 bunch of bridge jumpers over the 18z NAM Holy smokes. It's as bad as watching a Honey Boo Boo episode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think it was because LWX issued the WSW...full blown jinx. They control the weather with their actions, it is well known. It is the KOD. I am just gonna hug my Christmas Eve snow and try to let go this evening. Freaked out when I heard the WSW. Never ever good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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