PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looking pretty similar to the NAM...certainly not as much QPF though...not as big a hit here in South Central Indiana but not bad either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 To be honest this trend is not good for anyone in Michigan, but it isn't over by any stretch of the mind. I still think we'll get a decent storm for the first of the season. Ole king euro has been pushed aside by the numerical piece of junk aka the "nam". U know the euro painted a solid 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Unreal trend. Ukmet almost comes close to whiffing us all. Thank god there are only 40 hrs left or this could become a DC special! Merry Christmas all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hmm, the GFS and Nam are world's apart in terms of qpf rates and quantities lol. Again i aint worried about that till we get within 24 hours of the event but the track is quite identical between both the 0z Nam and 0z GFS, so thats a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 To be honest this trend is not good for anyone in Michigan, but it isn't over by any stretch of the mind. I still think we'll get a decent storm for the first of the season. Watch out, Chargers09 is going to hit you with his famous "LoL". Prepare to be "LoL-ed" at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Unreal trend. Ukmet almost comes close to whiffing us all. Thank god there are only 40 hrs left or this could become a DC special! Merry Christmas all Dude you are gold.. Merry Christmas man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I notice that with each successive run today, the NAM's orientation of the snow shield has changed and spread more north so the western edge keeps getting trimmed back, those of us on the river still do very good. The NAM verbatum is probably 7-10" here, 6-8" DTW, 4-6" ARB, 3-5" JXN, 1-3" BTL. Hoping the GFS and EURO show similar tonight. Definitely looking like whatever does fall in MI, youd want to be in my area. I'm a 15 minute walk from the river myself and like you, I wouldn't want to be any further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Watch out, Chargers09 is going to hit you with his famous "LoL". Prepare to be "LoL-ed" at. You flip flop with every model run. How about sitting back and taking the nam fwiw. Lol. My god. Maybe go wipe down your snowmobile or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Regarding the NAM beyond 36hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Enjoy the snow down south. Some day the winds will turn and we will get something up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS back to earth with realistic QPF amounts. It never ceases to amaze me how people hug the NAM QPF every storm despite being overdone the majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Enjoy the snow down south. Some day the winds will turn and we will get something up here. There is a better pattern coming for LES next week.... I'm turning my attention to that now. This storm is for Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS back to earth with realistic QPF amounts. It never ceases to amaze me how people hug the NAM QPF every storm despite being overdone the majority of the time. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I would NEVER EVER do this sort of thing being this far out. Sorry, but it seems the big storms almost always miss me to the north. Biggest snow last year was about 2".It may be wrong to gloat but I feel compelled to do it. 24 hours until onset of precip. isn't that far out but if it shifts back north...well I'm used to it and won't be crying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here in Pickerington, OH (SE Suburbs of Columbus, Ohio) for the holidays and when I left yesterday thought I could quit following this storm. Was just expecting an all rain event with an inch or two on the back side. Things are looking better and better here for a pretty good snowfall! That would be as good as a Christmas gift as I could ask for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hey someone from my neck of the woods! You guys plow right? If so you'll all be raking in the dough Wednesday and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For the YYZ posters/lurkers, I'd shy away from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I remember some saying a few days ago they would take 3-5" and run with it...well thats looking like a realistic total for DTW proper now. Still wanna wait on Euro of course. I will freak if we get NO snow, but I think thats a pretty long shot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For the YYZ posters/lurkers, I'd shy away from the NAM. Right now 3-6" is a good range with this system. More than happy with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For the YYZ posters/lurkers, I'd shy away from the NAM. i remember the GHD 2011 storm had such a similar output of data within 48 hours out of the storm but last minute data and observations showed it was actually further north than modeled which is why we got screwed and stuff but yeah. Still time left for things to change and lets hope its for the best. Merry Christmas Canuck and fellow Torontonian and everybody else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 If i see this correct the meso analysis on spc is not matching up extremely well at the surface. The low out in NE New Mexico is 2mb stronger right now than the GFS and NAM were forecasting. Also the high pressure out near Florida also seems stronger and more north versus the guidance. When you look up north towards Canada the High pressure up there 1040 is also well north of the guidance. Does this make any difference in these solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here's some uplifting news for SEMI posters, at least around DTW. More of the SREF members are showing heavier totals. I'm seriously torn. *shrugs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Here's some uplifting news for SEMI posters, at least around DTW. More of the SREF members are showing heavier totals. I'm seriously torn. *shrugs* As said...if you and I dont get at least a few inches I will be shocked and quite frankly FURIOUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 i remember the GHD 2011 storm had such a similar output of data within 48 hours out of the storm but last minute data and observations showed it was actually further north than modeled which is why we got screwed and stuff but yeah. Still time left for things to change and lets hope its for the best. Merry Christmas Canuck and fellow Torontonian and everybody else Merry Christmas to you and all as well. Anything's possible, but we've seen a steady diet of models indicating that the primary is just not going to be able to survive the trip into the E OV. With that being the case, the chances of this being a warning criteria type snowfall are now very low. Looks like I solid 2-4/3-5 type deal. Unless that changes, the EURO/NAM type amounts won't verify imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 As said...if you and I dont get at least a few inches I will be shocked and quite frankly FURIOUS. As of now, it looks like 2-4 for river communities and 1-2 inches for western areas.... Lansing is probably looking at grey skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This has bust written all over it for those of us near the Ohio River in NKY and Southern Indiana. This stom could be a dissapointment for a lot of people. Just because the low pressure is going to be well south of us doesn't mean an automatic snowstorm. The lack of cold air could end up hurting a lot of people. I'm willing to just sitback and watch the radar to see how much cold air this system really has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 As of now, it looks like 2-4 for river communities and 1-2 inches for western areas.... Lansing is probably looking at grey skies. You are basing that forecast on the models continuing to go east, because it cant be models verbatum? The NAM has like 8-10" for the river communities...gfs probably has 3-5". Euro should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow at some of the nastiness in here... especially on Christmas Eve. I hope you guys down south enjoy your dumping. Looks like a nice one. Got a fresh 2" here today, brings my depth back up to 12". Merry Christmas everyone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas to you and all as well. Anything's possible, but we've seen a steady diet of models indicating that the primary is just not going to be able to survive the trip into the E OV. With that being the case, the chances of this being a warning criteria type snowfall are now very low. Looks like I solid 2-4/3-5 type deal. Unless that changes, the EURO/NAM type amounts won't verify imho. Yeahh, so far its been a downward trend but i wouldn't lose hope, maybe we can get a Christmas miracle tomorrow again if it phases more effectively this storm can be more robust as on the 0z Nam but the track is key and phasing. Then i would get concerned about the qpf but for not i agree. 3-6 inches seems reasonable. Its said that if the Euro and Nam both agree its often a hard model agreement to break. so lets see. Any word on the 0z GGEM yet? Havent gotten around to check yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS back to earth with realistic QPF amounts. It never ceases to amaze me how people hug the NAM QPF every storm despite being overdone the majority of the time. Last storm the juicy models (NAM, RGEM, UKMET) won out, so it's not out of the question for those involved with this storm. As is, I would still take the middle ground, trending slightly toward the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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