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December 20th-22nd Major Winter Storm Part II

andyhb

By andyhb,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted

Random question, with these kind of winds and falling temps, what would we be looking at in terms of wind chills?

Probably single digits above zero. For example, a 25F temp with a 25 mph wind gives a wind chill of 9F.

Obviously nothing out of the ordinary for December...although after the non-cold last winter and this winter, it will feel like being in the middle of the arctic tundra.

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KokomoWX

KokomoWX

Posted
Posted

POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT CNTL IN.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA BY MIDDAY THUR FOLLOWED BY SNOW THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-200500-

/O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0004.121220T1800Z-121221T1500Z/

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-

BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-

PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.LAFAYETTE.FRANKFORT.KOKOMO.

CRAWFORDSVILLE.ANDERSON.MUNCIE.INPOLIS.SHELBYVILLE

350 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THUR TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN INPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS & BLOWING SNOW.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THUR TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT WITH BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

* ACCUMULATIONS: OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING: STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 1 PM THUR AND CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO START UNTIL AFTER 7 PM THUR & SHOULD COME TO AN END BY

10 AM FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES: SINGLE DIGITS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW & BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

ORD/MKE will have a blizzard. That is for sure. How much snow they get, it up in the air, but a blizzard it will be.

No question they will meet the wind criteria...it's more about how heavy the period of snow is and how much vis restriction it causes but it looks like it could be good enough.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

From what I can gather off WU maps.

Surface low passes over Pontiac, IL at 12pm. Passes just north of Hammond, IN at 3pm. Holland, MI at 6pm.

Already seeing snow ripping in McHenry County to Waukesha County by 1:30-2pm.

Snowing in Chicago by 3:30pm. - Just a little bit earlier here up along the northshore.

Update from Skilling:

Storm update: Docile Winter of 2012-13 coming alive! WINTER STORM WATCH covers Chi area late Thursday/Thursday night. No travel problems other than wet pavement into early afternoon Thursday here. Season's biggest winter storm to date bearing down on Chi area-first with rain/thunder-then wind/snow! It's to be the biggest moisture-producing sys in Chi in 5 months & is to bring 1st measurable snow ...of season & biggest snow since 3.5" Feb 24-10 months ago. Current indications of switch from rain to snow: Switchover to snow in Rockford 2-3 pm Thu & Chi 4-6 pm during eve rush. 6 to 10 hrs of windblown snow with 50-60 mph gusts & 3 to 6" totals mainly Thursday night. Another system of potential substance could be a snow-producer next week.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

A dusting of snow in winds like that is a blizzard.

In this case, meeting blizzard criteria in MKE/CHI is gonna need to rely on the snow rate more than usual imo. There's nothing already on the ground to blow around and the snow will be wet. I think both areas have a shot but I'd be kinda suprised if the offices pull the trigger before the 11th hour.

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

First winter headlines of the season for me.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

348 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

...COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT THE AREA...

.IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SUSTAINED

WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL

BRING A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID

20S THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY CAUSE WET ROAD SURFACES TO

BECOME SLIPPERY. LATER THURSDAY EVENING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS

THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND AN INCH. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS

WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE. ALL THE

WHILE...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE

REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW...TEMPERATURES BELOW

FREEZING...WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES...AND STRONG WINDS WILL

CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-200500-

/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0007.121220T2100Z-121221T2100Z/

WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-

LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-

LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...

KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...

BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...

SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA

348 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM

EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 PM EST

FRIDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED

VISIBILITIES...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS...AS

WELL AS A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING WITH WET

ROADS ON THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE

DAMAGE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE 40S INTO THE 20S

THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH STRONG

WINDS.

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Natester

Natester

Posted
Posted

Forecast for Davenport.

  • Tonight

    Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after midnight. Temperature rising to around 39 by 2am. Breezy, with a east wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

  • Thursday

    Rain before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and noon, then snow after noon. Temperature falling to around 27 by 5pm. Windy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest 25 to 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Forecast for Cedar Rapids.

  • Tonight

    Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Blustery, with a east wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 8 inches.

  • Thursday

    Snow with widespread blowing snow before noon, then widespread blowing snow and a chance of snow after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 19 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph becoming north 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 5 inches.

There is going to be a SHARP cutoff line.

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Luftfeuchtigkeit

Luftfeuchtigkeit

Posted
Posted

Yep, 18Z GFS is even stronger and more N/W than the 12Z run. If it verifies we're switching over to rain for a good chunk of time tomorrow in Madison. It would be a huge slushy mess here for a while. But then it should crust over when the wind switches to the NW and the temp drops and we could get several inches to blow around on top of that.

I'm hoping for the 18Z NAM to verify to keep it all snow here.

Looks like the 18z GFS stuck to its guns. Maybe a tick warmer for the line riders...CID, DBQ, MSN, etc.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Like the areas in the middle of it all with no advisories of any sort.

Regardless, pretty solid area of wind advisories/warnings outside of the wintry zone.

You know whats funny....some here in SE MI like to complain that that we are prone to dryslot (which we all know merely depends on track) and once in a while you even hear snow hole (even though DTW has done among the best anywhere in the region 5 years running for synoptic snow)....well they may get their frickin' wish with this one (and it couldnt come at a worse time when Im dying for snow). Too bad those in WI/IL who insisted pattern recognition had the entire month of Dec would be a snowless torch won't get their wish. Maybe now they will learn there IS something to climo. :axe:

DTX however thinks dryslot will be shortlived. Interesting.

LOCALLY, THIS WILL FAVOR REDUCED

RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE DRY SLOT AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOW MOISTURE

TO GRADUALLY WRAP BACK INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST

BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRI.

THIS SECOND ROUND OF MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE

WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE

ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF HIGHER END WIND GUSTS. AN ALREADY-WANING

ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTION IS NOW DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM TO BE

EXCLUSIVELY THE RESULT OF PROPAGATION OF THE FILLING LOW. THIS,

COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA DO A GREAT

DEAL TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN ANY WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL DEVELOPING

BEFORE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ITSELF MAY STILL

BRING THE INSTABILITY AND MIXING NECESSARY TO PRODUCE A COUPLE HOURS

OF 35-40MPH GUSTS ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER ARCTIC

AIR ON FRIDAY COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL

HOURS OF BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR

HIGHER.

LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AND INCREASE IN

COVERAGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z

TOMORROW NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SNOW TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE

IN NATURE, ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY VARY ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER,

GIVEN THE BORDERLINE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY

ALONG WITH A WET GROUND TO START, WILL LIKELY SEE EFFECTIVE SNOW

RATIOS WELL BELOW 10:1, THUS MAKING ACCUMS MORE LIKE T TO 2" IN

SPOTS (POSSIBLY HIGHER LOCALLY). FOR THE SAME REASONS, ROADS ARE UNLIKELY

TO BE AFFECTED IN ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPACITY DURING THIS TIME.

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Luftfeuchtigkeit

Luftfeuchtigkeit

Posted
Posted

A few lightning strikes have been reported in eastern NE, see below. Not sure if this is thundersnow or right before they switched over. Hope this is a sign of things to come.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE

344 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

...BLIZZARD TO IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA...

OBVIOUS CONCERN/FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPING

BLIZZARD WHICH WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OR SO OF

THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWED DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM WY THROUGH CO

WITH STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX ALONG CO/NM BORDER. AS

THROUGH/PV MAX TRACK EAST TONIGHT...MID LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO

CLOSE OFF JUST TO OUR SSE WITH RESULTANT FRONTOGENESIS PROVIDING

STRONG LIFT. ALTHOUGH A GOOD PART OF THIS LIFT IS IN DENDRITIC

LAYER...SOME OCCURS EARLY THIS EVENING BELOW THAT LEVEL.

HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED FOLDING OF THETA SURFACES

INDICATING UPRIGHT OR AT LEAST SLANT-WISE CONVECTIVE BANDS

POSSIBLE AIDING IN 1+ INCH SNOW RATES. ALSO A FEW INSTANCES OF

LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN REPORTED BOTH W OF LNK AND NE OF OMAHA.

12Z GFS/NAM HAVE INCREASED QPF NOW IN 1 INCH RANGE ALONG I80 INTO

WRN IA...ALTHOUGH ECMWF WAS LESS. USING A BLEND WOULD STILL

PROVIDE A BAND OF 7-9+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD USING

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 13 TO 1 WEST TO AROUND 10-1 EAST THIS

EVENING AND 14-1 OR SO AFTER 06Z...USED A BIT LOWER RATIOS ACROSS

FAR SE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A RAIN/SLEET MIX POSSIBLE TO

BEGIN EVENT FAR SERN ZONES THROUGH 03Z. LATEST RAP FORECAST

SOUNDINGS ALSO FORECAST 65-75 KT WINDS SEVERAL K FEET ABOVE THE

SURFACE SPREADING FM FNB-FBY WITH SPEEDS AT THAT LEVEL IN 55-65KT

RANGE AT LNK/OMA TAPERING TO 45-50 AT KOFK. THUS DYNAMIC MIXING OF

SOME THESE WINDS DOWN TONIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE GUSTS THAT COULD

EXCEED 45-50KTS... ESPECIALLY SERN ZONES.

BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW SHOULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH HOW

WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD VISIBILITIES ARE MAINTAINED IS A QUESTION.

NONETHELESS...FELT RISK WAS GREAT ENOUGH WITH INITIAL LATE MORNING

ISSUANCE TO KEEP ERN 2/3RDS OR SO OF BLIZZARD AREA VALID THROUGH

18Z...AND THIS WAS CONTINUED IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME BLOWING

SNOW COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES AFTER 18Z BUT WOULD EXPECT

VSBYS IMPROVING ENOUGH SO NO HEADLINE PAST THAT TIME. NO OTHER

WEATHER EXPECTED IN SHORT TERM WITH CLEARING AFTERNOON SKIES

LIKELY LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY.

LITTLE CHANGES TO TONIGHTS LOWS BUT WOULD EXPECT WITH FRESH SNOW

COVER MUCH OF THE AREA RECOVERY WILL BE TOUGH AND THUS REDUCED

DIURNAL RANGE. FRESH SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MANY TEMPS

TO BE ON OR BELOW THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE THU NGT/FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION COULD KEEP READINGS UP FRI NGT

AND ALLOW A BIT MORE RECOVERY SATURDAY...KEPT TEMPS NEAR COOLER

MAV MANY AREAS.

CHERMOK

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