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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

Alpha5

By Alpha5,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Sub_Zero

Sub_Zero

Posted
Posted

PL was short lived, it's coming down heavily out there. Tremblant is getting crushed!

expect this to be a crushing storm for parts of eastern ontario and regions N of montreal.

ottawa city and east along the ottawa river.... 8-16 inches (20-40cm) depeding on amount of rain/mix precip....right now i would lean less rain/mix, but i would feel more comfortable if the track was 20 or 30 miles eastward....the current track is defintely not classic for heaviest snow in the ottawa city area but the amount of moisture, dynamics being progged unanimoulsy by the models over the region means there will be a period of very heavy snowfall at least for several hours that should pile things up quickly even if there is some mix/rain. lingering snow into saturday could really put this storm over the top.

areas up the river from ottawa and into the upper ottawa valley and west of the city into the should have a pure 8-14 inches (20-35cm) of snow.

N of the ottawa river and into the ski regions N of montreal, i think 12-20 inches (30-50cm) of snow can be expected.

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Flying MXZ

Flying MXZ

Posted
Posted

Reports are coming in around CNY (higher elevations) tha a change over is taking place. Stll a good deal of synoptic precip to go...so some may end up with a quick 3" of concrete....then an 8 hour calm.

Reports of a couple of inches on the hilltops in Delaware County this morning. Rain and bare ground at home and in Delhi.

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champy

champy

Posted
Posted

Reports are coming in around CNY (higher elevations) tha a change over is taking place. Stll a good deal of synoptic precip to go...so some may end up with a quick 3" of concrete....then an 8 hour calm.

Changed over at about 7am here just a bit west of 'Cuse - snowing hard, sticking to everything

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

At least the cold's here, gfs is below freezing the entire run..

SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.7 -8.6	 986	 93	 96 0.11	 516	 527
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -5.2 -11.5	 995	 90	 97 0.10	 520	 524
SUN 00Z 23-DEC -5.6 -11.8 1005	 92	 45 0.07	 526	 523
SUN 06Z 23-DEC -6.9 -11.6 1008	 91	 75 0.00	 528	 521
SUN 12Z 23-DEC -4.8 -10.6 1010	 92	 38 0.02	 530	 522
SUN 18Z 23-DEC -2.4 -10.2 1010	 87	 15 0.03	 534	 526
MON 00Z 24-DEC -3.7 -10.0 1012	 96	 30 0.01	 535	 526
MON 06Z 24-DEC -5.9 -11.1 1014	 94	 28 0.02	 534	 523
MON 12Z 24-DEC -7.7 -12.1 1017	 95	 5 0.00	 540	 527
MON 18Z 24-DEC -4.1 -9.9 1017	 86	 5 0.00	 542	 529
TUE 00Z 25-DEC -6.6 -8.1 1017	 94	 7 0.00	 542	 529
TUE 06Z 25-DEC -6.2 -8.2 1016	 91	 63 0.00	 539	 526
TUE 12Z 25-DEC -7.4 -10.3 1020	 92	 72 0.00	 540	 524
TUE 18Z 25-DEC -3.7 -11.5 1020	 84	 10 0.00	 541	 525
WED 00Z 26-DEC -5.6 -10.3 1022	 97	 23 0.00	 544	 527
WED 06Z 26-DEC -6.3 -9.4 1021	 96	 13 0.01	 546	 530
WED 12Z 26-DEC -7.4 -7.1 1021	 97	 7 0.00	 547	 531
WED 18Z 26-DEC -4.0 -4.5 1016	 86	 56 0.00	 546	 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -4.9 -5.8 1010	 91	 98 0.03	 542	 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.9 -7.2 1008	 95	 98 0.19	 536	 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -11.8 -8.6 1012	 95	 38 0.02	 535	 526
THU 18Z 27-DEC -10.4 -12.0 1015	 92	 21 0.00	 534	 523
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -11.0 -13.0 1018	 95	 28 0.00	 535	 521
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -13.4 -14.3 1020	 96	 36 0.00	 536	 520
FRI 12Z 28-DEC -12.6 -15.2 1022	 96	 31 0.00	 536	 519
FRI 18Z 28-DEC -9.0 -14.9 1023	 88	 41 0.00	 535	 517
SAT 00Z 29-DEC -13.9 -11.6 1025	 96	 22 0.00	 544	 524
SAT 06Z 29-DEC -15.5 -10.3 1025	 96	 15 0.00	 545	 526
SAT 12Z 29-DEC -13.1 -9.7 1025	 91	 44 0.00	 543	 524
SUN 00Z 30-DEC -15.5 -10.0 1022	 99	 77 0.01	 539	 522
SUN 12Z 30-DEC -15.6 -10.9 1022	 95	 80 0.00	 536	 519
MON 00Z 31-DEC -15.3 -12.0 1023	 98	 52 0.00	 537	 519
MON 12Z 31-DEC -14.5 -13.0 1026	 98	 60 0.01	 536	 517
TUE 00Z 01-JAN -12.3 -8.4 1022	 95	 11 0.00	 545	 529
TUE 12Z 01-JAN -11.3 -9.5 1012	 94	 98 0.12	 535	 526
WED 00Z 02-JAN -8.1 -10.3 1006	 96	 93 0.16	 525	 521
WED 12Z 02-JAN -16.5 -18.3 1017	 93	 6 0.04	 529	 516
THU 00Z 03-JAN -24.4 -17.5 1023	 94	 43 0.00	 530	 513
THU 12Z 03-JAN -27.0 -18.3 1022	 89	 88 0.00	 520	 504
FRI 00Z 04-JAN -17.6 -17.4 1019	 96	 33 0.00	 527	 512
FRI 12Z 04-JAN -18.6 -17.4 1022	 94	 73 0.01	 531	 514
SAT 00Z 05-JAN -20.4 -15.6 1021	 97	 90 0.01	 532	 517
SAT 12Z 05-JAN -21.2 -14.7 1023	 89	 62 0.00	 534	 517

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Couchsachraga

Couchsachraga

Posted
Posted

1.5" of snow on the ground this morning, then rain since around daylight. Still a bit of water saturated snow left, but it's going fast at this point in the standing water from all the rain today (heavy at times). I heard more snow up north (3+" in North Creek of new snow, on top of the 4" of crust that was there from the other day), have not heard if they've avoided more of the rain than we are here in KGLF . Looking forward to seasonal temps the next few days (not getting above freezing) and a few more inches of snow. WIth any luck we'll have a white christmas down here. Johnsburg, as usual, will have a white Christmas. (IIRC NOAA page showed for northern warren county 90 or 95%+ of the time there is snow on the ground in Johnsburg for Christmas...)

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

My thoughts regarding the current event have changed very little since yesterday. I think the bulk of the accumulation in Western New York will occur between 6-7PM this evening and 9-10AM tomorrow. That's when the models seem to agree on the best combination of mid-level deformation and synoptic scale wraparound moisture. Both the NAM/GFS have converged on a general 0.50-0.75" QPF in most spots...perhaps a little less near the lakeshore, and a little more in the typical higher terrain "sweet spots" like the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills. As we discussed yesterday, temperatures in the h85 to h7 layer look ideal for dendritic growth (-8C to -13C) so I think the ratios will be pretty good. I still think most spots will come away with a 6-10" snowfall, except maybe 4-7" near the lakeshore and on the Niagara Frontier, and more like 8-13" in the higher terrain.

The wild card remains whether a Lake Huron or Georgian Bay connection can be established for a time NORTH of Buffalo. The NAM has been hinting at this for a number of runs now, and the 12z run is targeting the I-390 corridor south of ROC for a period of enhanced snowfall from 12-15z tomorrow (see graphic below). This will ultimately come down to nowcasting, but there is certainly the potential for some locations between Niagara and Monroe Counties to end up with more snow than currently anticipated if this actually were to occur.

post-619-0-14517000-1356117118_thumb.png

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Does anyone have any idea how the latest Euro effects the area with regards to the 26-27 storm system? Thanks.

It has shifted east and isn't quite as deep as yesterday morning's run, but still a very good storm for much of the region. It's actually a better storm for central/eastern parts of the state where mixing and dry slotting would have been an issue with yesterday's track. Regardless, there is a long way to go so I wouldn't get too caught up in the details just yet. For now, we should all be happy that a storm is still being depicted and know that the track will likely shift around quite a bit between now and the actual event.

I'd keep an eye on Christmas morning, too. That little event could surprise some folks...

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

Does anyone have any idea how the latest Euro effects the area with regards to the 26-27 storm system? Thanks.

Looks pretty good. ROC to SYR on into the 'Dacks jackpot. Dryslot shuts the snow down early, but back-end snows as the upper level low swings through. Looks like at least 4-8" for all NY state outside of NYC.

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

It has shifted east and isn't quite as deep as yesterday morning's run, but still a very good storm for much of the region. It's actually a better storm for central/eastern parts of the state where mixing and dry slotting would have been an issue with yesterday's track. Regardless, there is a long way to go so I wouldn't get too caught up in the details just yet. For now, we should all be happy that a storm is still being depicted and know that the track will likely shift around quite a bit between now and the actual event.

I'd keep an eye on Christmas morning, too. That little event could surprise some folks...

Totally agree.

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schinz

schinz

Posted
Posted

It has shifted east and isn't quite as deep as yesterday morning's run, but still a very good storm for much of the region. It's actually a better storm for central/eastern parts of the state where mixing and dry slotting would have been an issue with yesterday's track. Regardless, there is a long way to go so I wouldn't get too caught up in the details just yet. For now, we should all be happy that a storm is still being depicted and know that the track will likely shift around quite a bit between now and the actual event.

I'd keep an eye on Christmas morning, too. That little event could surprise some folks...

Thanks...I am hoping for a good LES flow after the 26-27th storm as I will be in the area of the Chautauqua Ridge between Christmas and New Years!!!

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Buffalo Bumble

Buffalo Bumble

Posted
Posted

It has shifted east and isn't quite as deep as yesterday morning's run, but still a very good storm for much of the region. It's actually a better storm for central/eastern parts of the state where mixing and dry slotting would have been an issue with yesterday's track. Regardless, there is a long way to go so I wouldn't get too caught up in the details just yet. For now, we should all be happy that a storm is still being depicted and know that the track will likely shift around quite a bit between now and the actual event.

I'd keep an eye on Christmas morning, too. That little event could surprise some folks...

Thanks for the updates and safe travels into BUF. BTW - we might not let you leave WNY since you seem to be quite the snow magnet. I believe the only snowfall we've had this year was when you were in town around T'giving...

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

KUCA

THU 00Z 27-DEC  -6.6    -3.5    1013	  77	 100    0.13	 549	 539   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -6.8    -9.4    1003	  81	  89    0.50	 538	 535   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -5.4    -6.4	 998	  82	  97    0.07	 532	 534   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -5.3    -8.6	 999	  87	  97    0.16	 530	 530

KSYR

THU 00Z 27-DEC  -5.6    -3.4    1012	  80	 100    0.16	 547	 538   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -5.5    -9.8    1003	  82	  97    0.55	 536	 534   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -5.6    -8.7	 999	  87	 100    0.13	 532	 532   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -7.2    -8.7    1001	  85	  99    0.16	 530	 529

KALB

THU 00Z 27-DEC  -6.1    -3.6    1014	  79	  99    0.14	 552	 541   
THU 06Z 27-DEC  -5.0    -8.2    1004	  85	  95    0.49	 542	 539   
THU 12Z 27-DEC  -3.0    -4.0	 995	  82	  83    0.11	 533	 536   
THU 18Z 27-DEC  -2.4    -5.9	 994	  84	  89    0.13	 529	 533

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