Isotherm Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I've said before...can't wait for my mix to rain as New England is more wintry mid Dec. Lol Or our rain to rain event. But on the bright side you do get good at guessing the different temperatures of rain drops as they run down your back. Amazing how much colder 35F rain feels versus 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Anytime there's a cold high to the north, a lot of sne is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 No chrome clads thrown in on the ram? how did they sneak those past you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Anytime there's a cold high to the north, a lot of sne is in the game. Anyone questioning that..see yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 the transition to +pna is well underway and the 11th event may in fact be the entrance scenario discussed in the other thread, but this run clearly has wave interference issues. not that anyone is but i wouldn't look any deeper into this run than a rip and read. it's not going to be worth it to do so - That's not a +PNA on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Last vestiges of snow FTL today But Clean vehicle to make up for snowmelt FTW Throw some spinners on that biatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 I know it's far out but even the EC ensembles have an ice storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 I know it's far out but even the EC ensembles have an ice storm signal. Is the 11th the first shot at our any wintry precip? is that weekend deal squashed you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Is the 11th the first shot at our any wintry precip? is that weekend deal squashed you think? There's an outside shot at a little snow in the 8-9th event, but I'm pretty skeptical of it. The event itself doesn't look overly impressive. Getting cold in here might be tough before that event even if it occurs. The Euro actually has a front running wave before the 11th...sandwiched in between the two systems...it gives us some light overrunning snow early on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 There's an outside shot at a little snow in the 8-9th event, but I'm pretty skeptical of it. The event itself doesn't look overly impressive. Getting cold in here might be tough before that event even if it occurs. The Euro actually has a front running wave before the 11th...sandwiched in between the two systems...it gives us some light overrunning snow early on the 10th. Nice..So even though it probably won't shake out like that..we really have to feel decent about some winter wx later this week. Just keep telling myself..get thru these next 2 days..get thru these next 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 temp dropping now. 43.1 for a high, a decent amount below forecast. Inversions have been the theme of the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 temp dropping now. 43.1 for a high, a decent amount below forecast. Inversions have been the theme of the last month. Yeah today was one of those dirty..almost filthy days where it underperformed..theme of the season so far.. Tomorrow might be the same, but Tuesday we will def. lose a few folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 The ensembles also slowly have been trying to trend higher with heights just off the west coast near what is now the day 10 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 46.3F for the high here. Below BOXs 50 ideas Most of the snow is gone. Tree is bought and lit, ornaments ensuing. Chili in the crock pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 46.3F for the high here. Below BOXs 50 ideasMost of the snow is gone. Tree is bought and lit, ornaments ensuing. Chili in the crock pot Best Sunday Afternoon Ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The ensembles also slowly have been trying to trend higher with heights just off the west coast near what is now the day 10 timeframe. How's the 2nd half of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Best Sunday Afternoon Ever? Oysters shucked..shells hung from the tree, Sammy A chilling in leftover snowpile, fire lit,,extra wood and it's dried...Make tonight the best night you've ever had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 How's the 2nd half of the run? Keeps the northern tier pretty cold. NAO is negative...EPO region is not that great, but still pretty good ridging in the Kamchatka region which keeps enough cross polar flow to keep Canada quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Oysters shucked..shells hung from the tree, Sammy A chilling in leftover snowpile, fire lit,,extra wood and it's dried...Make tonight the best night you've ever had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 i wish it was mid july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Keeps the northern tier pretty cold. NAO is negative...EPO region is not that great, but still pretty good ridging in the Kamchatka region which keeps enough cross polar flow to keep Canada quite cold. Thanks Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 Keeps the northern tier pretty cold. NAO is negative...EPO region is not that great, but still pretty good ridging in the Kamchatka region which keeps enough cross polar flow to keep Canada quite cold. I think it's at least trying to show heights rebuilding towards the end which would be nice. Very gradient like so I hope we can keep that -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Yeah today was one of those dirty..almost filthy days where it underperformed..theme of the season so far.. Tomorrow might be the same, but Tuesday we will def. lose a few folks The little events have overperformed, yesterday was a nice early winter day. A couple of warm days in early Dec is nothing to worry about as the trend is good. The torches have been underperforming lately. I think we get some fun just as the holidays are here in earnest. You have the week between xmas and new years off? That should be a good stretch of winter I think. My neighbors have snowmobiles and we have hundreds of miles of trails right outside the door. Plan to be on trails that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Keeps the northern tier pretty cold. NAO is negative...EPO region is not that great, but still pretty good ridging in the Kamchatka region which keeps enough cross polar flow to keep Canada quite cold. Gradient? The blocking on the long range models a week or two ago was so dramatic...I don't really want that. I'm happy with a bit of blocking just to keep things suppressed enough for New England...no need for more Mid Atlantic blizzards at our expense. A cold Canada, a sneaky high and low pressure shooting across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Certainly NOT a torch tomorrow..So this much hyped torch and Endless Summer talk has turned into 1 much above normal day on tuesday.. BLYR ONLY EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 950 MB SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO 50-55 EXCEPT U40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Now this sounds like winter, at least in CNE and NNE, and probably eventually SNE. From HPC...but it is the pattern you guys have been talking about as likely to evolve in this period. THE WESTERN U.S. STORM RELAXES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. IN THE EASTERN U.S...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A ZONE OF WINTRY MIX BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FEATURES A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. A LONG-LIVED REX BLOCK AND SPLIT FLOW REGIME NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL BREAK DOWN. THIS ALLOWS MORE COLD AIR TO SPILL OFF OF CONTINENTAL ASIA AND DEEPEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS...IN TURN...PROPS UP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BRINGING AN END TO THE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTH AMERICA...MODELS AND TELECONNECTIONS PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...SUPPORTED BY INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AND MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. ...MODEL CHOICE... DESPITE AGREEMENT ON THE LARGEST SCALES...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER THE PACIFIC AS EARLY AS DAYS 2 AND 3. THE ECMWF IS AT ONE EXTREME...IN BUILDING THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY INTO ITS FORECAST. THE GFS...ALONG WITH THE UKMET...MAINTAIN A VERY PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE WEAKENING REX BLOCK EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SHORTWAVE LOWERS HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN U.S...RESULTING IN THE EVENTUAL BROAD SCALE TROUGH AXIS BEING FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE...AND MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF ANY ONE MODEL RUN IS CURRENTLY LOW...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THE RESULTING PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND BY DAYS 6/7. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE WAVES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY RESOLVING THE TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SUCH WAVES AT THIS TIME. BY EARLY DAY 3 WED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THE SYSTEMS REACHING W-CNTRL NOAM AND THE EAST COAST AT THAT TIME. THIS BLEND IS CONTINUED THRU DAY 4 THU. A SLIGHTLY GREATER WEIGHTING OF THE GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS IS INTRODUCED DAY 5 FRI AS FCST SPREAD OVER THE PACIFIC COMES INTO THE PICTURE. A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GEFS MEANS SERVES AS THE STARTING POINT FOR DAYS 6-7 SAT-SUN WITH THE GOAL OF YIELDING SOMEWHAT BETTER CONTINUITY THAN WOULD LIKELY BE THE CASE IF SELECTING PARTICULAR DETAILS OF ANY CURRENT OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE ATTEMPT TO DEPICT ONE PRONOUNCED FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYS 5-7...PRIMARILY AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL FORCING/BAROCLINICITY WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Let it bleed, ooze on down like molasses. Cold air can not be denied this year. It a heckuva way to run a 7 day warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 normal high here is 47. Highs in the 50s in Vt, 55-60 eastern mass, 50s eastern ct...........with tonights torchalicious lows looks like the next three days in most spots will be _10-+20 each day. Chilly weather for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2012 Author Share Posted December 2, 2012 LOL I love temp debates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 only a 2 day torch to upper 40s and low 50s here. Rain freezing rain and snow in the forecast for next weekend already. And that will trend colder I'd bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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