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Winter '12/'13 Complaint Thread

dmc76

By dmc76,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Wow I would KILL to see that! Any pics?

Well I do not have picture from that level of the mountain. I have pictures from the 2800 foot level (when my camera was charged. One time that I would have paid extra money for fresh batteries), where there was about 3 feet of dense snow pack. People with me got some pictures, will have to ask for them. But to give you an idea...

@2800' (friend's picture)

199805_10150138455514497_6551793_n.jpg

We were there on the 15th and this is a shot from main web camera on the mountain at about 5000'. The road leads up to Paradise Inn. (Clouds cleared up when we were there)

MORA2011_74_1000.jpg

This is not my picture, but I found it online. It's from March 6, 2011 - a week before I was there. Gives you a very good idea how deep the snow is compared to the cars in the lot!

March-at-Rainier-0009.jpg

Mount Rainier is probably the best place to see deep snow pack on a regular basis. At least the most accessible location to see really deep snow!

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Well I do not have picture from that level of the mountain. I have pictures from the 2800 foot level (when my camera was charged. One time that I would have paid extra money for fresh batteries), where there was about 3 feet of dense snow pack. People with me got some pictures, will have to ask for them. But to give you an idea...

@2800' (friend's picture)

199805_10150138455514497_6551793_n.jpg

We were there on the 15th and this is a shot from main web camera on the mountain at about 5000'. The road leads up to Paradise Inn. (Clouds cleared up when we were there)

MORA2011_74_1000.jpg

This is not my picture, but I found it online. It's from March 6, 2011 - a week before I was there. Gives you a very good idea how deep the snow is compared to the cars in the lot!

March-at-Rainier-0009.jpg

Mount Rainier is probably the best place to see deep snow pack on a regular basis. At least the most accessible location to see really deep snow!

Love that last pic...really shows the insane depth!

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
Posted

Ok, at this point I am capitulating to this winter. The reason I feel it will suck is because even this fall, with the exception of one or two storms, we really haven't seen strong lows spin up in the Midwest. Now, every fantasy storm that spins up becomes weaker with time and more like a typical frontal passage as we get closer. I have a sad feeling that will be a theme this winter. We will see a dry yo-yo pattern. That is to say, alternating cool and warm periods, but with overall boring weather. I really hope I'm wrong but I don't see it. Early next week a cold front will come through with some light rain for most ahead of it. Then a ridge looks to come through a few days later. A few days later, another relatively dry cold front probably, rinse, wash, repeat.

Yeah. This drought is still persisting and it's in some ways strengthening again.

I doubt we are as warm as last winter.

I think some area's will do well. probably 80-90 percent of normal snow fall. While others do much worse maybe 50-70 percent of normal.

Probably no one has a below normal temp wise winter. But 1-3F monthly anomaly's are light vs last year.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

you see amounts close to this in WAshington but these are the heaviest point totals i've seen this far south.

  • Snow. Low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 33 to 43 mph increasing to 50 to 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

  • Thursday

    Snow. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -18. Windy, with a south southwest wind 75 to 85 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.


  • Thursday Night

    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 90 to 95 mph increasing to 100 to 105 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.


  • Friday

    Snow. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 85 to 95 mph decreasing to 75 to 85 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.


  • Friday Night

    Snow. Low around 14. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.


  • Saturday

    Snow. High near 19. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.


  • Saturday Night

    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible.

Imagine having a house somewhere on Mount Shasta, you'd be absolutely buried 14' to 17' of snow. Even if this is the peak which it probably is you'd have to worry about serious avalanche potential.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

I mentioned this in another thread, but I guess I can reiterate in the complaint thread. I agree with Friv that the drought may impact snowfall in this region. It has been mentioned and I realize that feedback from drought-stricken areas isn't as strong in the winter, but man, the pattern looks to be returning drought in the Midwest with continuing drought in the Plains.

Am I canceling winter? NO. My thoughts are that we may not see systems that dump 6"+ snows much this winter. I think we are going to have a moisture-starved clipper winter, with maybe 1 big kahuna for someone in the region. Those clippers may be enough to put many areas near normal by the end of winter, with the stat padding cry abounding.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

I mentioned this in another thread, but I guess I can reiterate in the complaint thread. I agree with Friv that the drought may impact snowfall in this region. It has been mentioned and I realize that feedback from drought-stricken areas isn't as strong in the winter, but man, the pattern looks to be returning drought in the Midwest with continuing drought in the Plains.

Am I canceling winter? NO. My thoughts are that we may not see systems that dump 6"+ snows much this winter. I think we are going to have a moisture-starved clipper winter, with maybe 1 big kahuna for someone in the region. Those clippers may be enough to put many areas near normal by the end of winter, with the stat padding cry abounding.

Stat padding comment made me chuckle.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

I mentioned this in another thread, but I guess I can reiterate in the complaint thread. I agree with Friv that the drought may impact snowfall in this region. It has been mentioned and I realize that feedback from drought-stricken areas isn't as strong in the winter, but man, the pattern looks to be returning drought in the Midwest with continuing drought in the Plains.

Am I canceling winter? NO. My thoughts are that we may not see systems that dump 6"+ snows much this winter. I think we are going to have a moisture-starved clipper winter, with maybe 1 big kahuna for someone in the region. Those clippers may be enough to put many areas near normal by the end of winter, with the stat padding cry abounding.

I'm taking the opposite approach…I think our stat padding clipper and bowling ball winters are becoming a thing of the past. Riding the weather trends of the decade for big daddies or nothing, go big or go home, extreme futility punctuated by home runs. Miguele Cabrera weather.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

I'm taking the opposite approach…I think our stat padding clipper and bowling ball winters are becoming a thing of the past. Riding the weather trends of the decade for big daddies or nothing, go big or go home, extreme futility punctuated by home runs. Miguele Cabrera weather.

In a way you just described the 1990s.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I'm taking the opposite approach…I think our stat padding clipper and bowling ball winters are becoming a thing of the past. Riding the weather trends of the decade for big daddies or nothing, go big or go home, extreme futility punctuated by home runs. Miguele Cabrera weather.

Recent snowfall stats for Chicago argue otherwise. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38081-winter-statistics-for-ohare-airport/

Oh that's right, 2011-12 winters are the new norm. 2007-08 thru 2010-11 were a fluke.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

Stat padding is pretty much midwest climo. Take the following hypothetical example of a 45" season:

The following dates all get 6":

Nov 21

Dec 7

Dec 22

Jan 8

Jan 26

Feb 13

Mar 8

And 3" on Apr 2 to cap winter.

That would be 45" or a seemingly normal season for many, but would feel like an A plus winter. But obviously that's never going to happen because the midwest averages a ton of light snows. You just have to take climate in stride and enjoy the dozen plus 1" snowfalls all season long.

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SpartyOn

SpartyOn

Posted
Posted

Im getting worried about this drought. Detroits average snowfall the last 5 years is 55.2" (71.7, 65.7, 43.7, 69.1, 26.0). That is only 14-15" above the longterm average. We are becoming a snow desert :lmao:rolleyes.gif

Sarcasm aside..

The issue many are struggling with isnt the drought conditions or soil moisture. Its the noticeable lack of decent moisture laden systems and the time between them. It has been a trend that wont die.

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
  • Author
Posted

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

1249 PM CST TUE NOV 27 2012 /149 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2012/

CHICAGO

RANK # DAYS DATES W/O MEASURABLE SNOW

1) 280 03/01/1994-12/05/1994

2) 277 03/10/1946-12/11/1946

3) 269 03/11/1999-12/04/1999

4) 268+ 03/05/2012-11/27/2012+

Might as well follow something intriguing in this pattern

Futility has moved into the third spot. With the 2nd spot reachable...

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

correct ;)

Amirite?

1912-13 2012-13: 19.1"

1913-14 2013-14: 28.2"

1914-15 2014-15: 19.0"

1915-16 2015-16: 26.1"

1916-17 2016-17: 23.7"

1917-18 2017-18: 64.1"

1918-19 2018-19: 28.7"

1919-20 2019-20: 32.2"

1920-21 2020-21: 9.8"

1921-22 2021-22: 11.5"

1922-23 2022-23: 21.5"

1923-24 2023-24: 27.6"

1924-25 2024-25: 18.9"

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Amirite?

1912-13 2012-13: 19.1"

1913-14 2013-14: 28.2"

1914-15 2014-15: 19.0"

1915-16 2015-16: 26.1"

1916-17 2016-17: 23.7"

1917-18 2017-18: 64.1"

1918-19 2018-19: 28.7"

1919-20 2019-20: 32.2"

1920-21 2020-21: 9.8"

1921-22 2021-22: 11.5"

1922-23 2022-23: 21.5"

1923-24 2023-24: 27.6"

1924-25 2024-25: 18.9"

hahaha

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
you see amounts close to this in WAshington but these are the heaviest point totals i've seen this far south.

  • Snow. Low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 33 to 43 mph increasing to 50 to 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

  • Thursday

    Snow. High near 19. Wind chill values as low as -18. Windy, with a south southwest wind 75 to 85 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.

  • Thursday Night

    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -13. Windy, with a south southwest wind 90 to 95 mph increasing to 100 to 105 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.

  • Friday

    Snow. High near 18. Wind chill values as low as -14. Windy, with a south southwest wind 85 to 95 mph decreasing to 75 to 85 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 23 to 29 inches possible.

  • Friday Night

    Snow. Low around 14. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

  • Saturday

    Snow. High near 19. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible.

  • Saturday Night

    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 17. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible.

Are there even roads or homes near these areas though?

Jon

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