dryslot Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 EURO surface temps? 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 1/21/12 was looking more impressive at this stage than this junk system is (though that isn't saying a whole lot)...but never say never in meteorology. If we somehow got a last second 50 mile jog northward, then that would create potential for a bust like that. Certainly not the same but rather the potential for a high omega WAA band interested me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 it's alright...the ukmet has a swfe for D6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 18z NAM 0.75"+ for ACK 0.5"+ makes it to about the Bourne Bridge. 0.25"+ makes it to about Scituate. 0.10"+ makes it to just NW of BOS Interesting... Note - If BL holds right, PHI could have low end warning snows. NJ looks sweet too. Southern Comfort guy wants to know whether the mets think the 18z NAM would be some snow around the canal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Southern Comfort guy wants to know whether the mets think the 18z NAM would be some snow around the canal? you have to hope it has the precip right but the temps wrong. at face value, it is pretty warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Southern Comfort guy wants to know whether the mets think the 18z NAM would be some snow around the canal? Looks like it could be some light snow Tues morning but the winds actually turn more onshore as the low travels south and it would be difficult to get snow right on the water during the afternoon and evening hours once that happens. Maybe ended as some flakes as the inverted trough starts to pull away and the winds turn NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 you have to hope it has the precip right but the temps wrong. at face value, it is pretty warm at the surface. Looks like it could be some light snow Tues morning but the winds actually turn more onshore as the low travels south and it would be difficult to get snow right on the water during the afternoon and evening hours once that happens. Maybe ended as some flakes as the inverted trough starts to pull away and the winds turn NNW. Thanks to both of you. Too busy to look but per the description it's one of those deals where my front yard it's a mushizzard of rain with some mangled flakes while back a few hundred yards it's non accumulating snow/rain. Water is really warm still. Kind of nice to see one potentially breaking in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 For the record if we get more than 2" here I will parade around in the soco guys mankini in the snow with video to back it up. This is one verification video none of you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 For the record if we get more than 2" here I will parade around in the soco guys mankini in the snow with video to back it up. This is one verification video none of you want to see. this kind of a shoulder season event would be much better on the other shoulder...i.e. March/April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The NWS raised the chance of snow here to 60% and increased the forecasted snowfall total to near one inch. I am prepapred to be snowbound for several minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This almost sounds like a Nino "Pineapple Express" ... geesh. Also, looks like NCEP also biting the winter retreat between D5-10 USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS IS THE FIRST CYCLE IN A WHILE WHERE THERE WAS ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AT THE MEDIUM RANGE TO CONFIDENTLY BLEND A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION INTO THE MANUAL PROGS. THE ECMWF FIT BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS THE BEST, SO ELECTED TO RELY ON ITS MASS FIELDS FOR HALF OF THE BLEND. THE HIGHEST IMPACT EVENT WILL BE THE LONG DURATION ONSLAUGHT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR WEST, WITH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA RANGE AT THE CENTER OF THE THREAT. THE CULPRIT IS A STRONG, MEAN TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH UNRELENTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTERSECTING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE EFFECTS OF THIS PATTERN WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY INLAND TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MAJOR MOUNTAIN RANGE NETTING A COMMENSURATELY SMALLER PRECIPITATION TOTAL. SNOW IN THE FEET IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE, A MAJOR WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED, WITH THE POLAR JET RETREATING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE SOURCE- I.E. SOUTH TEXAS. so in a nut shell - everything is bad news today, a to zinc dogshcit - right. got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Tippy, October 2011 was pretty good for some of us Rte Poopers, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The NWS raised the chance of snow here to 60% and increased the forecasted snowfall total to near one inch. I am prepapred to be snowbound for several minutes. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 There is a rather potent shortwave trough over MX and TX, however models squash this to the south and east over SC and NC as time goes on with little to no impact on our potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Somebody grab Tippys Sarah McLaughlin CD quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 As I look at the later data, RAP etc, all I can think is that come Wednesday the KFS is going to be intolerable doing the ickey shuffle on a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 As I look at the later data, RAP etc, all I can think is that come Wednesday the KFS is going to be intolerable doing the ickey shuffle on a couple inches of snow. i don't think he can do that...it was warning criteria yesterday, then advisory criteria/low-end warning, even advisory criteria as early as this morning. even if he somehow managed 2" of snow, he wouldn't spike the football on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 lightning strikes over Mexico, Texas, Gulf of Mexico, and MO as well as the Southern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 lightning strikes over Mexico, Texas, Gulf of Mexico, and MO as well as the Southern US. Jan 2005 incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 lightning strikes over Mexico, Texas, Gulf of Mexico, and MO as well as the Southern US. Congrats NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Jan 2005 incoming. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 EC ens mean QPF...48hr total valid 12z Wed... 0.05" DDH-LCI-PWM 0.10" BAF-ORE-ASH-PSM 0.25" BLM-FOK-UUU-PYM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 EC ens mean QPF...48hr total valid 12z Wed... 0.05" DDH-LCI-PWM 0.10" BAF-ORE-ASH-PSM 0.25" BLM-FOK-UUU-PYM I hope the highway departments can keep up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 i don't think he can do that...it was warning criteria yesterday, then advisory criteria/low-end warning, even advisory criteria as early as this morning. even if he somehow managed 2" of snow, he wouldn't spike the football on this one. Yeah I don't think it would be shocking at all if someone managed 2"...if this just ticks north at all, in fact I'd probably expect it for some weenie hill locations in CT/RI....if we see widespread 4"+, then maybe he can gloat a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 LOL Where were you in 2010-2011 that you got 90"? Woburn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yeah I don't think it would be shocking at all if someone managed 2"...if this just ticks north at all, in fact I'd probably expect it for some weenie hill locations in CT/RI....if we see widespread 4"+, then maybe he can gloat a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Jan 2005 incoming. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Somehow Shelton CT will get 4" and NJ 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Somehow Shelton CT will get 4" and NJ 6" Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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