CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Bottom line is that the precip rates are needed...0.1" every 6 hrs will not cut it, even for interior SE MA. The NAM does show this potential, but I'd feel better if the GFS came NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That is some pretty nice omega for SE MA before the storm exits around 30-33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Nam brings the 0.25 line to just north of Boston down towards ORH and SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The profiles are marginal enough in a lot of areas that if the precip comes down heavy, its going to overcome it. But that is the $64 million question....if its "steady" snow but not heavy, it could be that 35F non-accumulating snow. Along the water...it might be tough. It does look mild in the lower 1500ft. However, back by Bob..it does look better. It's probably going to be one of those things where you need to get away from the water a few miles. If somehow you really get into strong echoes, than maybe you have a 34F snow or something. I think even for interior SE MA...the precip rates will determine any accumulation. 2SM -SN will not cut it. Thanks guys. From previous experience - albeit with stronger storms, it's pretty hard for it to snow here this early. I could see it accumulating back along Rte 495 by the 195 interchange. That's often the cutoff. However if this is a weaker system without much wind it could snow with these precip rates. Will probably remembers a thanksgiving period event in 03 or 04 in which we had a few inches down here with a weaker system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Lol even KGON is all snow on the NAM soundings cold , cold,colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That is some pretty nice omega for SE MA before the storm exits around 30-33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Lol even KGON is all snow on the NAM soundings cold , cold,colder Look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Lol even KGON is all snow on the NAM soundings cold , cold,colder Eh, thats pretty warm in the lower 1000-1500 feet in the afternoon...but it does look like they would flip to snow toward evening. A lot of course would precip intensity dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Eh, thats pretty warm in the lower 1000-1500 feet in the afternoon...but it does look like they would flip to snow toward evening. A lot of course would precip intensity dependent. Well freezing level was 1000 ft at the start but quickly dropped to 450, I would assume that's a snow sounding at saturation. Granted right on the water and yea you can see as good omega moves in the level drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Well freezing level was 1000 ft at the start but quickly dropped to 450, I would assume that's a snow sounding at saturation. Granted right on the water and yea you can see as good omega moves in the level drops. You sure you are not looking at meters? The frz level on the soundings I'm looking at are mostly in the 1,300-1,800 foot range which is generally a bit too warm. It does fall under 1,000 feet later toward evening. Its difficult to get snow to reach the surface when the freezing level is 1,500 feet or higher, so that is kind of a benchmark value to look for. But these are model soundings...and if the precip falls heavy, they generally won't cool the column enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 600-800 frontogenesis on the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Man, i can only dream this is correct. highly skeptical of nam. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Ktan.txt 0.5 liquid equiv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Total totals 44 Unstable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Man, i can only dream this is correct. highly skeptical of nam. http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Ktan.txt 0.5 liquid equiv Most of the Cape is .75+ I think. Question is, is this a real thing or is this the NAM? We'll see soon enough I suppose. But this is the 3rd run in a row that's ramped it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You sure you are not looking at meters? The frz level on the soundings I'm looking at are mostly in the 1,300-1,800 foot range which is generally a bit too warm. It does fall under 1,000 feet later toward evening. Its difficult to get snow to reach the surface when the freezing level is 1,500 feet or higher, so that is kind of a benchmark value to look for. But these are model soundings...and if the precip falls heavy, they generally won't cool the column enough. From Plymouth KGON sounding data text at 27 freezing level 496 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 From Plymouth KGON sounding data text at 27 freezing level 496 feet The freezing level difference between FMH and PYM is pretty sharp. Plymouth is probably snow just inland while around the bridge rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Most of the Cape is .75+ I think. Question is, is this a real thing or is this the NAM? We'll see soon enough I suppose. But this is the 3rd run in a row that's ramped it up. its the nam. not accurate model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 From Plymouth KGON sounding data text at 27 freezing level 496 feet Oh right, at 27 hours...that is 10pm tomorrow evening. I was talking about the afternoon when that WAA snow is going along the south coast. It still may be snow if it comes down hard. But it just shows that precip intensity will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 NAM even got .2 back to BDL. We'll see soon enough whether the GFS likes the idea as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 its the nam. not accurate model. Probably overdone but we'll see shortly. Even if all the other models have a similar development and track we all know from past experience the NAM will be on the high side of the QPF spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Does this matter? Nam is ten degrees too warm already for WST and GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Nam precip totals are usually overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Given the increased omega/frontogenesis and unstable look to the soundings I certainly don't think the QPF is overdone and the NAM could be onto something here. We're going to be dealing with many mesoscale features here and the NAM could be picking up on this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 RGEM looks pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I don't understand why people even bother looking at the NAM if you're just always going to trash it and discount it every time. Everytime there is a freaking NAM run there are a million posts about how awful it is and blah blah blah...just don't look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I love the point and clicks right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 wow even 32 in the gates of hell on the sand bar, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 dp of 23 even better, its going to snow......somebody in interior sw ct will see 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Don't try to verify radiationally cooled temps with model 2m temps. The model will always be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 RGEM looks pretty good too. Yea RGEM is very nice, guess this is going to come down to BL and precip rates. It's cold tonight, Jerry's antecedent day rule? We will have to see how fast clouds move in, longer we radiate and the quicker it clouds before sunrise the better I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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