Guru Of Reason Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 First month of meteorological winter. Hope everyone gets an abundance of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Yeah, I know it is the 384 hr GFS, but look at the -45 contour that is showing up in Alberta. Alberta clipper, anyone? That white inside the pink on the map is every dude's wet dream. Of course, it will likely be different tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 That white inside the pink ... is every dude's wet dream. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 December is long range at this point. In the interest of avoiding confusion, use the long range thread for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Skilling going with mid-upper 60's by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 First month of meteorological winter. Hope everyone gets an abundance of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The questions as we head towards December seem to be....how impressive will the mild air to start the month be...how long will it last....and will the pattern change advertized around Dec 10th work out? Also...by pattern, or regime, change...it means something set to stay for a while. Not at all that someone cant or wont see a snowfall before that change happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Skilling going with mid-upper 60's by Monday. Warm temps in early Dec always remind me of '98. I think we hit the 70s 2-3 days in a row early on in that Dec. If this torch overachieves maybe we can do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Warm temps in early Dec always remind me of '98. I think we hit the 70s 2-3 days in a row early on in that Dec. If this torch overachieves maybe we can do the same. If you can guarantee me a repeat of the first two weeks of January 1999, then I say let's do this current December...1998 style. Of course looking ahead, I'm going to need to replace February 1999 with something else...but definitely keep March 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 The questions as we head towards December seem to be....how impressive will the mild air to start the month be...how long will it last....and will the pattern change advertized around Dec 10th work out? Also...by pattern, or regime, change...it means something set to stay for a while. Not at all that someone cant or wont see a snowfall before that change happens. One THING we DO know. Winter IS coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 One THING we DO know. Winter IS coming! Exactly. Since precip is NEVER reliable on LR models, we look at them for pattern trends. In November, to get snow, you need a colder than normal pattern. Seasonable temps will NOT do the trick. So you want to see it as troughy as possible over you, and hope the snow will come (we got the trough in Nov, but the snow, at least meaningful snow, did NOT come). As the averages continue to drop as we head towards the winter solstice, we no longer need to have that colder than normal weather to snow by mid-December or so. We just need to get some seasonable temps (though colder is always better) to combine with a more active weather pattern, and voila! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Based on the general trend of the GFS Ensembles for 12z, looks like a decent storm will bring in some cold air mid week next week. I don't know if this will bring about a pattern change or just a short term cooldown, but climo should be on our side for the arrival of some consistently colder, and who knows, maybe snowier, conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 FWIW Skilling mentioned late next week/next weekend could finally bring about a pattern change that could yield some measurable snow beyond that. You'd have to think that with so much widespread warmth next week that whenever a decent shot of cold air digs in it should spin up a pretty good storm. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 00z GFS is consistent with bringing a huge pattern change and lots of snow for many...."?"...........Gotta love tonights run (long range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Or a rockies trough. A pattern change back to normal. A rockies or plains trough isn't far off from being good for many members in this forum, granted it sets up better for Upper Midwest/Northern Plains snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The calendar may be turning to December but the storm early next week may present a convective threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The calendar may be turning to December but the storm early next week may present a convective threat. Agree very much, it isn't too often you get +10c air at 850mb up to this part of the country at this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Agree very much, it isn't too often you get +10c air at 850mb up to this part of the country at this time of the year. It's ridiculous. It probably won't have much in the way of instability, but looks to have dynamics. But a bit of good news for winter lovers, right after this system moves out, the GFS hints at polar air pooling right in the US, associated with a clipper/hooker type storm. But of course, not to be taken seriously. Especially considering what's been said in the long range thread, that cool air like this doesn't look to come until around mid December. Overall, for what it's worth, snow lovers should really like what happens after that system moves through in the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The calendar may be turning to December but the storm early next week may present a convective threat. I'll take it, although I'll admit I haven't looked into it that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Going to enjoy these warm bonus days before the arctic bruiser comes a knocking. Time to get a last hike in before the snow pack locks up the trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Going to enjoy these warm bonus days before the arctic bruiser comes a knocking. Time to get a last hike in before the snow pack locks up the trails. snowshoes>hiking boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 snowshoes>hiking boots. Gonna try it..but its a b**ch i hear. Hiking is best in mid fall and spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 We should put out some over/under snow amounts for select locations by the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: T YYZ: 0.1" MKE: 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Crap, sorry...those were my predictions. How about just using the normal Dec snowfall for a few sites? ORD: 8.5" DTW: 9.7" IND: 6.9" MKE: 10.6" STL: 4.4" Toronto Downtown: 12.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: 8.5"-----------------------------UNDER DTW: 9.7"-----------------------------OVER IND: 6.9"-------------------------------UNDER MKE: 10.6"----------------------------OVER STL: 4.4"------------------------------UNDER Toronto Downtown: 12.7"----------UNDER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: 8.5" Under DTW: 9.7" Under IND: 6.9" Under MKE: 10.6" Over STL: 4.4" Under Toronto Downtown: 12.7" Under Reasoning for each: Alek says it may not snow at all in Chicago this winter. I'm convinced. Gut feeling, but it's close. They finish at 9.6". A terrible snow town. BowMe has had a good attitude towards the slow start. He gets rewarded. And I have a bet to win. 6.7" on Christmas Eve as a bonus call. When's the last time it snowed in St. Louis, 2010? T Blizzard has cancelled December 22 times on this board already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: 8.5" Under DTW: 9.7" Under IND: 6.9" Under MKE: 10.6" Over STL: 4.4" Under Toronto Downtown: 12.7" Under Reasoning for each: Alek says it may not snow at all in Chicago this winter. I'm convinced. Gut feeling, but it's close. They finish at 9.6". A terrible snow town. BowMe has had a good attitude towards the slow start. He gets rewarded. And I have a bet to win. 6.7" on Christmas Eve as a bonus call. When's the last time it snowed in St. Louis, 2010? T Blizzard has cancelled December 22 times on this board already. :lmao: I'm thinking Toronto may see around 6" of snow in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Crap, sorry...those were my predictions. How about just using the normal Dec snowfall for a few sites? ORD: 8.5" DTW: 9.7" IND: 6.9" MKE: 10.6" STL: 4.4" Toronto Downtown: 12.7" Over Over Under Over Under Under (sorry SSC), though I do think you end up around 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: 8.5" OVER DTW: 9.7" OVER IND: 6.9" NORMAL +/- .5 MKE: 10.6" OVER STL: 4.4" UNDER Toronto Downtown: 12.7" OVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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